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Study Hall: Georgia Tech 30, Georgia 24

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Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia Tech 30, Georgia 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.9 37.9 30.0
Possessions 11 9
Scoring Opportunities*
7 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.43 2.43 4.66
Leverage Rate** 73.1% 72.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.511 0.561 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Georgia Tech
Total 23.8 30.7
Rushing 13.2 25.8
Passing 10.6 4.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.3% 53.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 37.8% 60.0% 43.3%
Passing (close) 50.0% 25.0% 40.3%
Standard Downs 40.8% 61.3% 47.0%
Passing Downs 50.0% 33.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.82 0.67 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.94 0.61 0.74
Passing (close) 0.71 1.22 0.99
Standard Downs 0.73 0.68 0.77
Passing Downs 1.02 0.62 1.14
Line Stats Georgia Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.65 3.73 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Georgia Georgia Tech
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 19.0 18.8
Turnover Margin Georgia Tech +1
Exp. TO Margin Georgia Tech +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia Tech +0.49
TO Points Margin Georgia Tech +0.2 points
Situational Georgia Georgia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.592 0.318
Q2 S&P 0.491 0.511
Q3 S&P 0.431 0.632
Q4 S&P 0.503 0.628
1st Down S&P 0.455 0.534
2nd Down S&P 0.509 0.595
3rd Down S&P 0.412 0.527
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 7.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 6

It's funny looking at this and seeing the Projected Scoring Margin at the bottom basically saying "This game turned out as it should have," when nothing about this game made a particular amount of sense. Georgia Tech's offense played as well as advertised but suffered two crippling fumbles while either about to score or run the clock out. Georgia's offense ALSO suffered two near-the-end zone fumbles but still scored what had to be the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds left. And then it wasn't the game-winning touchdown.

This was set up to be a gut-wrenching loss for whoever lost it. It is also going to end up on my Top 100 Games of the Season list.