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Study Hall: Arizona 42, Arizona State 35

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona 42, Arizona State 35

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Basics Arizona Arizona State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 58 87
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.5 30.5 30.0
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 4.00 4.66
Leverage Rate** 62.1% 64.4% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.534 0.467 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona Arizona State
Total 25.7 26.3
Rushing 12.7 7.7
Passing 13.0 18.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona Arizona State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.2% 39.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 30.3% 38.9% 43.3%
Passing (close) 44.0% 39.2% 40.3%
Standard Downs 38.9% 46.4% 47.0%
Passing Downs 31.8% 25.8% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona Arizona State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.22 0.77 0.86
Rushing (close) 1.27 0.55 0.74
Passing (close) 1.18 0.93 0.99
Standard Downs 1.47 0.60 0.77
Passing Downs 0.73 1.34 1.14
Line Stats Arizona Arizona State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.35 2.76 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 22.2% 3.9% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 24.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Arizona Arizona State
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 11.1 11.8
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Arizona +0.59
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona State +0.59
TO Points Margin Arizona +0.7 points
Situational Arizona Arizona State
Q1 S&P 0.499 0.380
Q2 S&P 0.543 0.523
Q3 S&P 0.667 0.408
Q4 S&P 0.453 0.557
1st Down S&P 0.495 0.490
2nd Down S&P 0.506 0.459
3rd Down S&P 0.532 0.459
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona by 0.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona by 7

Like Auburn against Alabama, Arizona State created more scoring opportunities than Arizona did. And like Auburn, the Sun Devils failed just enough -- turnover on downs at the UA 2, missed field goal, end-of-game turnover on downs -- that it gave Arizona a window of opportunity. And like Auburn, ASU allowed touchdowns on every opponent scoring opportunity. Hard to win a division like that.