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Study Hall: Alabama 55, Auburn 44

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama 55, Auburn 44

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Auburn Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 61 90
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 91.4%
Avg Starting FP 33.9 33.3 30.0
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
8 10
Points Per Opportunity 6.88 4.40 4.66
Leverage Rate** 82.0% 68.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.687 0.562 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Auburn
Total 42.0 40.8
Rushing 18.2 11.3
Passing 23.8 29.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Auburn Nat'l Avg
All (close) 54.1% 44.2% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 45.5% 41.9% 43.3%
Passing (close) 64.3% 47.1% 40.3%
Standard Downs 54.0% 45.3% 47.0%
Passing Downs 54.6% 41.7% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Auburn Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.27 1.04 0.86
Rushing (close) 1.21 0.51 0.74
Passing (close) 1.32 1.64 0.99
Standard Downs 1.18 0.97 0.77
Passing Downs 1.68 1.21 1.14
Line Stats Alabama Auburn Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.47 2.39 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.6% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.9% 7.6%
Turnovers Alabama Auburn
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 11.2 8.8
Turnover Margin Auburn +1
Exp. TO Margin Alabama +1.68
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Auburn +2.68
TO Points Margin Auburn +2.4 points
Situational Alabama Auburn
Q1 S&P 0.671 0.485
Q2 S&P 0.580 0.737
Q3 S&P 0.770 0.514
Q4 S&P 0.750 0.511
1st Down S&P 0.674 0.482
2nd Down S&P 0.705 0.646
3rd Down S&P 0.664 0.572
Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn by 1.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 11

This game played out the opposite of last year's game in one key way: last year, Alabama created more scoring opportunities than Auburn but couldn't produce enough points from those opportunities. Eventually that allowed Auburn to not only sneak back into the game but win it.

This year, it was the opposite. Auburn created two more scoring opportunities than Alabama (10 to eight), and going by national averages, that should have resulted in about a 47-37 Auburn win. But while Auburn didn't miss a bunch of field goals like Alabama did last year, the Tigers still had to SETTLE for field goals. Alabama did not. The Tide scored eight touchdowns in eight scoring opportunities. That'll do it.