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Alabama 55, Auburn 44
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 61 | 90 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 91.4% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 33.9 | 33.3 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 14 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 10 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.88 | 4.40 | 4.66 |
| Leverage Rate** | 82.0% | 68.8% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.687 | 0.562 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Auburn | |
| Total | 42.0 | 40.8 | |
| Rushing | 18.2 | 11.3 | |
| Passing | 23.8 | 29.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 54.1% | 44.2% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 45.5% | 41.9% | 43.3% |
| Passing (close) | 64.3% | 47.1% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 54.0% | 45.3% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 54.6% | 41.7% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.27 | 1.04 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.21 | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.32 | 1.64 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 1.18 | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.68 | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.47 | 2.39 | 2.93 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.6% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| Turnover Margin | Auburn +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Alabama +1.68 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Auburn +2.68 | |
| TO Points Margin | Auburn +2.4 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Auburn |
| Q1 S&P | 0.671 | 0.485 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.580 | 0.737 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.770 | 0.514 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.750 | 0.511 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.674 | 0.482 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.705 | 0.646 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.664 | 0.572 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn by 1.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 11 | ||
This game played out the opposite of last year's game in one key way: last year, Alabama created more scoring opportunities than Auburn but couldn't produce enough points from those opportunities. Eventually that allowed Auburn to not only sneak back into the game but win it.
This year, it was the opposite. Auburn created two more scoring opportunities than Alabama (10 to eight), and going by national averages, that should have resulted in about a 47-37 Auburn win. But while Auburn didn't miss a bunch of field goals like Alabama did last year, the Tigers still had to SETTLE for field goals. Alabama did not. The Tide scored eight touchdowns in eight scoring opportunities. That'll do it.