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College football projections: 2014-15 F/+ bowl picks

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These picks are a team playing in a bowl after its head coach got fired. As I continue to sculpt a ratings redesign, complete with normal-curve-friendly win probabilities and, so far, spread-friendly picks, I still feel obligated to post the old-style picks one last time. Say goodbye to graduating senior Hilariously Awful Pace Adjustments; he's playing in his final collegiate game. The NEW and OLD platoon will soon be over, too. The new coach already has his own quarterback picked out, and there will be no two-way rotation.

ATS Week 15 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 9-4-1 (68%) 365-385-17 (49%)
"OLD" Method 9-4-1 (68%) 360-345-16 (51%)

(Note: the full-season numbers also include a loss for both NEW and OLD in last week's Army-Navy game.)

OLD really hasn't done too poorly this year considering the first-week struggles. As I've written a few times, OLD usually succeeds by dominating the first week or two, then playing .500 ball the rest of the way. Instead, this year began with a .500 performance in week 1 and an uninspiring September, followed by a decent October-November run. Here's to hoping OLD finishes his career strong before ceding the job to a blue-chip newcomer next year.

Straight Up Week 15 2014 Season
Teams with 50-59% chance of winning 1-0 32-40 (44%)
Teams with 60-69% chance of winning 1-1 105-75 (58%)
Teams with 70-79% chance of winning 3-0 141-46 (75%)
Teams with 80-89% chance of winning 3-1 164-40 (80%)
Teams with 90-99% chance of winning 3-1 159-16 (91%)

My favorite part of the new win probabilities (that you haven't seen yet and are therefore the greatest things ever): no more "98% chance to win" picks for games that really, really seem like they should be closer to 90%.

Bowls

Here's your final weekly disclaimer that the margins are all that matter. The projected scores are for awful, entertainment value only, and going away very soon. You'll miss them, I know.

Date Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
20-Dec-14 11:00 AM ESPN UL-Lafayette vs. Nevada -1 Nevada by 11.4 (45.7 - 34.4) 70.5% Nevada Nevada by 6.9 Nevada
20-Dec-14 2:20 PM ESPN UTEP vs. Utah State -10 Utah State by 18.3 (25.5 - 7.2) 80.2% Utah State Utah State by 12.4 Utah State
20-Dec-14 3:30 PM ABC Colorado State vs. Utah -3 Colorado State by 4.3 (25.7 - 21.4) 62.2% Colorado State Colorado State by 2.8 Colorado State
20-Dec-14 5:45 PM ESPN Western Michigan vs. Air Force -1.5 Air Force by 1.2 (23.9 - 22.7) 57.4% Western Michigan Air Force by 0.7 Western Michigan
20-Dec-14 9:15 PM ESPN Bowling Green vs. South Alabama -3 South Alabama by 6.4 (24.5 - 18.1) 64.3% South Alabama South Alabama by 3.8 South Alabama
22-Dec-14 2:00 PM ESPN Memphis vs. BYU 1.5 Memphis by 1.6 (32.1 - 30.5) 57.7% Memphis Memphis by 0.9 BYU XXX
23-Dec-14 6:00 PM ESPN Marshall vs. Northern Illinois 10 Marshall by 34.4 (46.9 - 12.5) 91.4% Marshall Marshall by 21.2 Marshall
23-Dec-14 9:30 PM ESPN San Diego State vs. Navy 3 Navy by 9.8 (38.1 - 28.4) 69.8% Navy Navy by 6.5 Navy
24-Dec-14 12:00 PM ESPN Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan 4 Western Kentucky by 5.0 (39.7 - 34.8) 62.9% Western Kentucky Western Kentucky by 3.1 Central Michigan XXX
24-Dec-14 8:00 PM ESPN Rice vs. Fresno State 2.5 Rice by 3.0 (37.9 - 34.9) 59.8% Rice Rice by 1.8 Fresno State XXX
26-Dec-14 1:00 PM ESPN Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech -6 Louisiana Tech by 15.0 (24.9 - 9.9) 76.9% Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech by 10.4 Louisiana Tech
26-Dec-14 4:30 PM ESPN North Carolina vs. Rutgers 3 Rutgers by 0.2 (38.0 - 37.8) 56.0% Rutgers Rutgers by 0.1 Rutgers
26-Dec-14 8:00 PM ESPN Central Florida vs. NC State 2 NC State by 1.6 (24.7 - 23.1) 58.3% NC State NC State by 1.1 NC State
Date Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
27-Dec-14 1:00 PM ESPN Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech 3 Virginia Tech by 9.7 (26.3 - 16.7) 69.0% Virginia Tech Virginia Tech by 6.1 Virginia Tech
27-Dec-14 2:00 PM CBS Duke vs. Arizona State -7.5 Arizona State by 2.8 (28.0 - 25.2) 59.7% Duke Arizona State by 1.7 Duke
27-Dec-14 3:30 PM ABC Miami-FL vs. South Carolina 3.5 Miami-FL by 16.7 (48.8 - 32.1) 78.5% Miami-FL Miami-FL by 11.4 Miami-FL
27-Dec-14 4:30 PM ESPN Boston College vs. Penn State 2.5 Boston College by 13.5 (23.3 - 9.7) 73.9% Boston College Boston College by 8.7 Boston College
27-Dec-14 8:00 PM ESPN Nebraska vs. USC -6.5 USC by 2.7 (31.0 - 28.3) 59.4% Nebraska USC by 1.6 Nebraska
29-Dec-14 2:00 PM ESPN West Virginia vs. Texas A&M 3.5 West Virginia by 13.3 (42.7 - 29.4) 71.8% West Virginia West Virginia by 7.6 West Virginia
29-Dec-14 5:30 PM ESPN Clemson vs. Oklahoma -3 Oklahoma by 1.8 (21.0 - 19.2) 58.1% Clemson Oklahoma by 1.0 Clemson
29-Dec-14 9:00 PM ESPN Texas vs. Arkansas -6 Arkansas by 21.1 (26.3 - 5.1) 81.8% Arkansas Arkansas by 13.5 Arkansas
30-Dec-14 3:00 PM ESPN Notre Dame vs. LSU -7 LSU by 11.7 (29.9 - 18.2) 71.3% LSU LSU by 7.3 LSU
30-Dec-14 6:30 PM ESPN Louisville vs. Georgia -6.5 Georgia by 10.0 (26.5 - 16.5) 70.0% Georgia Georgia by 6.6 Georgia
30-Dec-14 10:00 PM ESPN Maryland vs. Stanford -14 Stanford by 12.9 (23.4 - 10.4) 74.7% Maryland Stanford by 9.1 Maryland
31-Dec-14 12:30 PM ESPN TCU vs. Ole Miss 3 Ole Miss by 0.8 (20.5 - 19.7) 56.8% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 0.5 Ole Miss
31-Dec-14 4:00 PM ESPN Boise State vs. Arizona -3.5 Boise State by 5.2 (36.0 - 30.8) 62.1% Boise State Boise State by 2.8 Boise State
31-Dec-14 8:00 PM ESPN Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State -6.5 Mississippi State by 2.8 (41.7 - 38.9) 59.7% Georgia Tech Mississippi State by 1.7 Georgia Tech
Date Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
01-Jan-15 12:00 PM ESPN2 Wisconsin vs. Auburn -6.5 Auburn by 5.1 (36.7 - 31.6) 63.0% Wisconsin Auburn by 3.2 Wisconsin
01-Jan-15 12:30 PM ESPN Baylor vs. Michigan State 3 Baylor by 5.5 (40.3 - 34.9) 62.4% Baylor Baylor by 2.9 Michigan State XXX
01-Jan-15 1:00 PM ABC Minnesota vs. Missouri -5 Missouri by 1.4 (19.0 - 17.6) 57.9% Minnesota Missouri by 0.9 Minnesota
01-Jan-15 5:00 PM ESPN Oregon vs. Florida State 9 Oregon by 10.9 (39.4 - 28.5) 70.8% Oregon Oregon by 7.0 Florida State XXX
01-Jan-15 8:30 PM ESPN Alabama vs. Ohio State 9.5 Alabama by 2.7 (32.7 - 30.0) 59.5% Ohio State Alabama by 1.7 Ohio State
02-Jan-15 12:00 PM ESPN Houston vs. Pittsburgh -3 Pittsburgh by 23.2 (47.9 - 24.7) 83.5% Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 14.6 Pittsburgh
02-Jan-15 3:20 PM ESPN Iowa vs. Tennessee -3.5 Tennessee by 5.8 (23.7 - 17.9) 63.7% Tennessee Tennessee by 3.5 Tennessee
02-Jan-15 6:45 PM ESPN Kansas State vs. UCLA 0 UCLA by 1.7 (40.9 - 39.2) 58.2% UCLA UCLA by 1.1 UCLA
02-Jan-15 10:15 PM ESPN Oklahoma State vs. Washington -5.5 Washington by 10.7 (24.5 - 13.7) 70.3% Washington Washington by 6.8 Washington
03-Jan-15 12:00 PM ESPN East Carolina vs. Florida -7 Florida by 9.6 (27.2 - 17.7) 68.2% Florida Florida by 5.7 East Carolina XXX
04-Jan-15 9:00 PM ESPN Toledo vs. Arkansas State 3 Toledo by 6.9 (46.7 - 39.8) 64.5% Toledo Toledo by 3.9 Toledo