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These picks are a team playing in a bowl after its head coach got fired. As I continue to sculpt a ratings redesign, complete with normal-curve-friendly win probabilities and, so far, spread-friendly picks, I still feel obligated to post the old-style picks one last time. Say goodbye to graduating senior Hilariously Awful Pace Adjustments; he's playing in his final collegiate game. The NEW and OLD platoon will soon be over, too. The new coach already has his own quarterback picked out, and there will be no two-way rotation.
| ATS | Week 15 | 2014 Season |
| "NEW" Method | 9-4-1 (68%) | 365-385-17 (49%) |
| "OLD" Method | 9-4-1 (68%) | 360-345-16 (51%) |
(Note: the full-season numbers also include a loss for both NEW and OLD in last week's Army-Navy game.)
OLD really hasn't done too poorly this year considering the first-week struggles. As I've written a few times, OLD usually succeeds by dominating the first week or two, then playing .500 ball the rest of the way. Instead, this year began with a .500 performance in week 1 and an uninspiring September, followed by a decent October-November run. Here's to hoping OLD finishes his career strong before ceding the job to a blue-chip newcomer next year.
| Straight Up | Week 15 | 2014 Season |
| Teams with 50-59% chance of winning | 1-0 | 32-40 (44%) |
| Teams with 60-69% chance of winning | 1-1 | 105-75 (58%) |
| Teams with 70-79% chance of winning | 3-0 | 141-46 (75%) |
| Teams with 80-89% chance of winning | 3-1 | 164-40 (80%) |
| Teams with 90-99% chance of winning | 3-1 | 159-16 (91%) |
My favorite part of the new win probabilities (that you haven't seen yet and are therefore the greatest things ever): no more "98% chance to win" picks for games that really, really seem like they should be closer to 90%.
Bowls
Here's your final weekly disclaimer that the margins are all that matter. The projected scores are for awful, entertainment value only, and going away very soon. You'll miss them, I know.
| Date | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-Dec-14 | 11:00 AM | ESPN | UL-Lafayette vs. Nevada | -1 | Nevada by 11.4 (45.7 - 34.4) | 70.5% | Nevada | Nevada by 6.9 | Nevada | |
| 20-Dec-14 | 2:20 PM | ESPN | UTEP vs. Utah State | -10 | Utah State by 18.3 (25.5 - 7.2) | 80.2% | Utah State | Utah State by 12.4 | Utah State | |
| 20-Dec-14 | 3:30 PM | ABC | Colorado State vs. Utah | -3 | Colorado State by 4.3 (25.7 - 21.4) | 62.2% | Colorado State | Colorado State by 2.8 | Colorado State | |
| 20-Dec-14 | 5:45 PM | ESPN | Western Michigan vs. Air Force | -1.5 | Air Force by 1.2 (23.9 - 22.7) | 57.4% | Western Michigan | Air Force by 0.7 | Western Michigan | |
| 20-Dec-14 | 9:15 PM | ESPN | Bowling Green vs. South Alabama | -3 | South Alabama by 6.4 (24.5 - 18.1) | 64.3% | South Alabama | South Alabama by 3.8 | South Alabama | |
| 22-Dec-14 | 2:00 PM | ESPN | Memphis vs. BYU | 1.5 | Memphis by 1.6 (32.1 - 30.5) | 57.7% | Memphis | Memphis by 0.9 | BYU | XXX |
| 23-Dec-14 | 6:00 PM | ESPN | Marshall vs. Northern Illinois | 10 | Marshall by 34.4 (46.9 - 12.5) | 91.4% | Marshall | Marshall by 21.2 | Marshall | |
| 23-Dec-14 | 9:30 PM | ESPN | San Diego State vs. Navy | 3 | Navy by 9.8 (38.1 - 28.4) | 69.8% | Navy | Navy by 6.5 | Navy | |
| 24-Dec-14 | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan | 4 | Western Kentucky by 5.0 (39.7 - 34.8) | 62.9% | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky by 3.1 | Central Michigan | XXX |
| 24-Dec-14 | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Rice vs. Fresno State | 2.5 | Rice by 3.0 (37.9 - 34.9) | 59.8% | Rice | Rice by 1.8 | Fresno State | XXX |
| 26-Dec-14 | 1:00 PM | ESPN | Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech | -6 | Louisiana Tech by 15.0 (24.9 - 9.9) | 76.9% | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech by 10.4 | Louisiana Tech | |
| 26-Dec-14 | 4:30 PM | ESPN | North Carolina vs. Rutgers | 3 | Rutgers by 0.2 (38.0 - 37.8) | 56.0% | Rutgers | Rutgers by 0.1 | Rutgers | |
| 26-Dec-14 | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Central Florida vs. NC State | 2 | NC State by 1.6 (24.7 - 23.1) | 58.3% | NC State | NC State by 1.1 | NC State | |
| Date | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| 27-Dec-14 | 1:00 PM | ESPN | Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech | 3 | Virginia Tech by 9.7 (26.3 - 16.7) | 69.0% | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech by 6.1 | Virginia Tech | |
| 27-Dec-14 | 2:00 PM | CBS | Duke vs. Arizona State | -7.5 | Arizona State by 2.8 (28.0 - 25.2) | 59.7% | Duke | Arizona State by 1.7 | Duke | |
| 27-Dec-14 | 3:30 PM | ABC | Miami-FL vs. South Carolina | 3.5 | Miami-FL by 16.7 (48.8 - 32.1) | 78.5% | Miami-FL | Miami-FL by 11.4 | Miami-FL | |
| 27-Dec-14 | 4:30 PM | ESPN | Boston College vs. Penn State | 2.5 | Boston College by 13.5 (23.3 - 9.7) | 73.9% | Boston College | Boston College by 8.7 | Boston College | |
| 27-Dec-14 | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Nebraska vs. USC | -6.5 | USC by 2.7 (31.0 - 28.3) | 59.4% | Nebraska | USC by 1.6 | Nebraska | |
| 29-Dec-14 | 2:00 PM | ESPN | West Virginia vs. Texas A&M | 3.5 | West Virginia by 13.3 (42.7 - 29.4) | 71.8% | West Virginia | West Virginia by 7.6 | West Virginia | |
| 29-Dec-14 | 5:30 PM | ESPN | Clemson vs. Oklahoma | -3 | Oklahoma by 1.8 (21.0 - 19.2) | 58.1% | Clemson | Oklahoma by 1.0 | Clemson | |
| 29-Dec-14 | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Texas vs. Arkansas | -6 | Arkansas by 21.1 (26.3 - 5.1) | 81.8% | Arkansas | Arkansas by 13.5 | Arkansas | |
| 30-Dec-14 | 3:00 PM | ESPN | Notre Dame vs. LSU | -7 | LSU by 11.7 (29.9 - 18.2) | 71.3% | LSU | LSU by 7.3 | LSU | |
| 30-Dec-14 | 6:30 PM | ESPN | Louisville vs. Georgia | -6.5 | Georgia by 10.0 (26.5 - 16.5) | 70.0% | Georgia | Georgia by 6.6 | Georgia | |
| 30-Dec-14 | 10:00 PM | ESPN | Maryland vs. Stanford | -14 | Stanford by 12.9 (23.4 - 10.4) | 74.7% | Maryland | Stanford by 9.1 | Maryland | |
| 31-Dec-14 | 12:30 PM | ESPN | TCU vs. Ole Miss | 3 | Ole Miss by 0.8 (20.5 - 19.7) | 56.8% | Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 0.5 | Ole Miss | |
| 31-Dec-14 | 4:00 PM | ESPN | Boise State vs. Arizona | -3.5 | Boise State by 5.2 (36.0 - 30.8) | 62.1% | Boise State | Boise State by 2.8 | Boise State | |
| 31-Dec-14 | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State | -6.5 | Mississippi State by 2.8 (41.7 - 38.9) | 59.7% | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State by 1.7 | Georgia Tech | |
| Date | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| 01-Jan-15 | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Wisconsin vs. Auburn | -6.5 | Auburn by 5.1 (36.7 - 31.6) | 63.0% | Wisconsin | Auburn by 3.2 | Wisconsin | |
| 01-Jan-15 | 12:30 PM | ESPN | Baylor vs. Michigan State | 3 | Baylor by 5.5 (40.3 - 34.9) | 62.4% | Baylor | Baylor by 2.9 | Michigan State | XXX |
| 01-Jan-15 | 1:00 PM | ABC | Minnesota vs. Missouri | -5 | Missouri by 1.4 (19.0 - 17.6) | 57.9% | Minnesota | Missouri by 0.9 | Minnesota | |
| 01-Jan-15 | 5:00 PM | ESPN | Oregon vs. Florida State | 9 | Oregon by 10.9 (39.4 - 28.5) | 70.8% | Oregon | Oregon by 7.0 | Florida State | XXX |
| 01-Jan-15 | 8:30 PM | ESPN | Alabama vs. Ohio State | 9.5 | Alabama by 2.7 (32.7 - 30.0) | 59.5% | Ohio State | Alabama by 1.7 | Ohio State | |
| 02-Jan-15 | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Houston vs. Pittsburgh | -3 | Pittsburgh by 23.2 (47.9 - 24.7) | 83.5% | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh by 14.6 | Pittsburgh | |
| 02-Jan-15 | 3:20 PM | ESPN | Iowa vs. Tennessee | -3.5 | Tennessee by 5.8 (23.7 - 17.9) | 63.7% | Tennessee | Tennessee by 3.5 | Tennessee | |
| 02-Jan-15 | 6:45 PM | ESPN | Kansas State vs. UCLA | 0 | UCLA by 1.7 (40.9 - 39.2) | 58.2% | UCLA | UCLA by 1.1 | UCLA | |
| 02-Jan-15 | 10:15 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma State vs. Washington | -5.5 | Washington by 10.7 (24.5 - 13.7) | 70.3% | Washington | Washington by 6.8 | Washington | |
| 03-Jan-15 | 12:00 PM | ESPN | East Carolina vs. Florida | -7 | Florida by 9.6 (27.2 - 17.7) | 68.2% | Florida | Florida by 5.7 | East Carolina | XXX |
| 04-Jan-15 | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Toledo vs. Arkansas State | 3 | Toledo by 6.9 (46.7 - 39.8) | 64.5% | Toledo | Toledo by 3.9 | Toledo |
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