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College football projections: Week 11 F/+ picks

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Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Good week!

ATS Week 10 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 31-22-1 (58%) 259-269-12 (49%)
"OLD" Method 29-24-1 (55%) 248-235-11 (51%)

Really good week!

Straight Up Week 10 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 2-1 (67%) 23-26 (47%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 10-6 (63%) 81-56 (59%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 7-3 (70%) 109-31 (78%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 11-2 (85%) 124-24 (84%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 11-1 (92%) 106-6 (95%)

Naturally, MACtion is threatening to derail this week before it even begins. I swear, I must be at 10% on MAC games and 60% on everything else this year...

Week 11

I have yet to find the lines for two games -- South Alabama at Arkansas State and Marshall at Southern Miss. I will fill in the blanks below when I find them.

There are two FBS vs. FCS games this week, not included in the table below. Mississippi State is projected to beat UT Martin by 49.2 points (44.7-(-4.5)), and Ole Miss is projected to beat poor Presbyterian by a cool 75.5 points (66.6-(-8.9)). Yep.

(And yes, here's your weekly reminder that the score projections are clearly a little bit wacky and shouldn't be taken seriously. The margin is the key piece.)

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 Bowling Green at Akron -5 Akron by 21.2 (37.3 - 16.1) 80.9% Akron Akron by 12.2 Akron
Tue 8:00 PM ESPNU Toledo at Kent State 12.5 Toledo by 21.7 (47.6 - 25.9) 83.1% Toledo Toledo by 12.7 Toledo
Wed 8:00 PM ESPNU Buffalo at Ohio -4 Ohio by 3.6 (38.2 - 34.6) 60.8% Buffalo Ohio by 2.5 Buffalo
Wed 8:00 PM ESPN2 Northern Illinois at Ball State 3 Ball State by 4.0 (47.8 - 43.8) 61.4% Ball State Ball State by 2.7 Ball State
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Clemson at Wake Forest 21 Clemson by 44.1 (41.8 - -2.3) 97.1% Clemson Clemson by 26.2 Clemson
Fri 7:30 PM ESPNU Memphis at Temple 7.5 Memphis by 11.2 (25.2 - 14.0) 71.0% Memphis Memphis by 6.0 Temple XXX
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN2 Utah State at Wyoming 6.5 Utah State by 20.8 (33.4 - 12.7) 83.3% Utah State Utah State by 12.7 Utah State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Baylor at Oklahoma -5.5 Oklahoma by 23.9 (54.4 - 30.5) 81.2% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 12.4 Oklahoma
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Georgia at Kentucky 10 Georgia by 25.8 (41.8 - 16.1) 86.9% Georgia Georgia by 15.2 Georgia
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Iowa at Minnesota 1.5 Minnesota by 1.2 (17.8 - 16.6) 57.4% Minnesota Minnesota by 1.2 Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM Louisiana Tech at UAB 4 Louisiana Tech by 15.2 (31.8 - 16.6) 75.2% Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech by 8.1 Louisiana Tech
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Penn State at Indiana 6.5 Penn State by 18.4 (31.9 - 13.5) 78.9% Penn State Penn State by 10.1 Penn State
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN SMU at Tulsa -12.5 Tulsa by 31.9 (44.9 - 13.0) 89.5% Tulsa Tulsa by 18.1 Tulsa
Sat 12:00 PM UTSA at Rice -9.5 UTSA by 0.4 (30.2 - 29.8) 56.3% UTSA Rice by 0.2 UTSA
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Wisconsin at Purdue 17 Wisconsin by 23.0 (35.3 - 12.4) 84.3% Wisconsin Wisconsin by 13.4 Purdue XXX
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Duke at Syracuse 3.5 Duke by 26.3 (35.5 - 9.2) 86.6% Duke Duke by 15.0 Duke
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia Tech at NC State 4 Georgia Tech by 24.4 (57.3 - 32.9) 85.2% Georgia Tech Georgia Tech by 14.0 Georgia Tech
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Troy -6.5 Georgia State by 1.2 (35.6 - 34.4) 57.6% Georgia State Georgia State by 0.3 Georgia State
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Arkansas State ??? Arkansas State by 14.8 (32.6 - 17.8) 73.6% ??? Arkansas State by 8.3 ???
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Connecticut at Army 4.5 Connecticut by 11.0 (24.8 - 13.8) 72.3% Connecticut Connecticut by 6.6 Connecticut
Sat 3:30 PM Florida International at Old Dominion -4.5 Florida International by 4.5 (31.6 - 27.0) 62.8% Florida International Florida International by 2.4 Florida International
Sat 3:30 PM Iowa State at Kansas 3.5 Iowa State by 16.9 (35.0 - 18.1) 77.6% Iowa State Iowa State by 9.4 Iowa State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN2 Michigan at Northwestern 1.5 Michigan by 1.3 (19.9 - 18.6) 57.7% Northwestern Michigan by 0.3 Northwestern
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Notre Dame at Arizona State -2.5 Arizona State by 6.2 (35.8 - 29.7) 64.2% Arizona State Arizona State by 3.9 Arizona State
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Texas A&M at Auburn -21.5 Auburn by 62.2 (70.9 - 8.8) 98.6% Auburn Auburn by 35.9 Auburn
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Tulane at Houston -17.5 Houston by 25.4 (29.8 - 4.5) 86.1% Houston Houston by 15.6 Tulane XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at Appalachian State -3.5 UL-Monroe by 8.6 (27.6 - 19.0) 67.4% UL-Monroe UL-Monroe by 4.4 UL-Monroe
Sat 3:30 PM FS1 West Virginia at Texas 3.5 West Virginia by 24.4 (34.6 - 10.2) 82.9% West Virginia West Virginia by 12.5 West Virginia
Sat 4:00 PM Air Force at UNLV 6 Air Force by 37.8 (44.7 - 6.8) 92.6% Air Force Air Force by 20.1 Air Force
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia Southern at Texas State 12.5 Georgia Southern by 34.6 (53.0 - 18.4) 91.7% Georgia Southern Georgia Southern by 19.2 Georgia Southern
Sat 4:00 PM UTEP at Western Kentucky -7 Western Kentucky by 11.3 (42.1 - 30.8) 70.7% Western Kentucky Western Kentucky by 6.8 UTEP XXX
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 Washington State at Oregon State -7.5 Oregon State by 11.1 (48.5 - 37.5) 70.3% Oregon State Oregon State by 6.6 Washington State XXX
Sat 6:30 PM Idaho at San Diego State -20.5 San Diego State by 13.9 (39.3 - 25.4) 73.8% Idaho San Diego State by 8.4 Idaho
Sat 6:30 PM ESPN Virginia at Florida State -19 Florida State by 34.6 (46.4 - 11.8) 92.4% Florida State Florida State by 20.8 Florida State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Boise State at New Mexico 18 Boise State by 35.0 (51.3 - 16.3) 91.9% Boise State Boise State by 19.4 Boise State
Sat 7:00 PM Florida Atlantic at North Texas 3.5 Florida Atlantic by 14.6 (35.0 - 20.4) 76.4% Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic by 8.7 Florida Atlantic
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Hawaii at Colorado State -17 Colorado State by 43.7 (50.7 - 6.9) 96.8% Colorado State Colorado State by 26.6 Colorado State
Sat 7:00 PM Marshall at Southern Miss ??? Marshall by 55.5 (55.0 - -0.4) 98.6% ??? Marshall by 31.9 ???
Sat 7:00 PM FS1 UCLA at Washington 4.5 UCLA by 29.1 (40.7 - 11.6) 87.1% UCLA UCLA by 15.4 UCLA
Sat 7:15 PM ESPN2 Louisville at Boston College 3 Louisville by 5.6 (25.7 - 20.1) 63.7% Louisville Louisville by 2.8 Boston College XXX
Sat 7:30 PM SECN Florida at Vanderbilt 14.5 Florida by 31.8 (32.3 - 0.5) 92.1% Florida Florida by 19.6 Florida
Sat 7:30 PM Fox Kansas State at TCU -6 TCU by 10.6 (31.2 - 20.7) 69.5% TCU TCU by 6.3 TCU
Sat 8:00 PM CBS Alabama at LSU 6.5 Alabama by 3.1 (30.1 - 27.0) 60.2% LSU Alabama by 1.3 LSU
Sat 8:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Arizona -16.5 Arizona by 45.2 (66.4 - 21.2) 93.4% Arizona Arizona by 21.9 Arizona
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Michigan State -3.5 Michigan State by 1.6 (30.9 - 29.3) 57.8% Ohio State Michigan State by 1.3 Ohio State
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Lafayette at New Mexico State 16 UL-Lafayette by 15.7 (48.6 - 32.9) 75.7% New Mexico State UL-Lafayette by 8.4 New Mexico State
Sat 10:00 PM ESPN Oregon at Utah 8 Oregon by 28.5 (42.0 - 13.4) 87.6% Oregon Oregon by 15.7 Oregon
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN San Jose State at Fresno State -2 San Jose State by 11.7 (39.4 - 27.7) 70.8% San Jose State San Jose State by 5.9 San Jose State