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Study Hall: Iowa 48, Northwestern 7

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Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa 48, Northwestern 7

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Iowa Northwestern Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 67
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 48.6%
Avg Starting FP 32.3 30.8 29.8
Possessions 11 13
Scoring Opportunities*
7 2
Points Per Opportunity 5.86 3.50 4.69
Leverage Rate** 64.1% 60.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.613 0.323 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Iowa Northwestern
Total 32.6 10.4
Rushing 18.6 8.6
Passing 13.9 1.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Iowa Northwestern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.6% 28.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 34.6% 46.2% 43.4%
Passing (close) 61.5% 13.3% 40.1%
Standard Downs 40.0% 47.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 50.0% 0.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Iowa Northwestern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.32 0.47 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.28 0.65 0.73
Passing (close) 1.37 -0.07 0.99
Standard Downs 0.87 0.54 0.77
Passing Downs 1.97 N/A 1.14
Line Stats Iowa Northwestern Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.22 2.56 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 25.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 18.2% 7.6%
Turnovers Iowa Northwestern
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.0 4.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Northwestern +0.21
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Iowa +0.21
TO Points Margin Iowa +0.2 points
Situational Iowa Northwestern
Q1 S&P 0.633 0.233
Q2 S&P 0.604 0.401
Q3 S&P 0.529 0.416
Q4 S&P 0.499 0.380
1st Down S&P 0.472 0.288
2nd Down S&P 0.597 0.504
3rd Down S&P 0.732 0.243
Projected Scoring Margin: Iowa by 22.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Iowa by 41

This Northwestern season has had an interesting flow to it. The Wildcats looked mostly awful for the first three weeks of the season, losing to Cal and NIU and sleepwalking past Western Illinois. Then they whipped Penn State, beat Wisconsin, and lost to Minnesota only via late kick return touchdown. They led Nebraska, 17-14, at halftime, too.

Last six quarters: Opponent 72, Northwestern 7.

Northwestern couldn't even pretend to pass the ball, and that pretty quickly made the difference in the game. Trevor Siemian was 8-for-18 for 68 yards and not only five sacks, but five sacks for a loss of 47 yards. That's 21 net passing yards in 23 attempts. Guh. Before garbage time, NU didn't convert a single passing down.