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Study Hall: Maryland 20, Penn State 19

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Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Maryland 20, Penn State 19

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Maryland Penn State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 68 83
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 36.7 30.3 29.8
Possessions 18 17
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.33 3.17 4.69
Leverage Rate** 60.3% 63.9% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.398 0.331 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Maryland Penn State
Total 13.9 13.0
Rushing 5.3 3.4
Passing 8.6 9.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Maryland Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.3% 26.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 37.5% 22.2% 43.4%
Passing (close) 34.1% 29.8% 40.1%
Standard Downs 56.1% 30.2% 47.1%
Passing Downs 3.7% 20.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Maryland Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.58 0.59 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.59 0.42 0.73
Passing (close) 0.57 0.69 0.99
Standard Downs 0.55 0.54 0.77
Passing Downs 1.30 0.74 1.14
Line Stats Maryland Penn State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.67 1.72 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 4.4% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 18.2% 16.7% 7.6%
Turnovers Maryland Penn State
Turnovers 2 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.1 14.8
Turnover Margin Maryland +2
Exp. TO Margin Maryland +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Maryland +1.34
TO Points Margin Maryland +6.7 points
Situational Maryland Penn State
Q1 S&P 0.327 0.361
Q2 S&P 0.408 0.276
Q3 S&P 0.402 0.410
Q4 S&P 0.437 0.294
1st Down S&P 0.514 0.321
2nd Down S&P 0.439 0.232
3rd Down S&P -0.181 0.462
Projected Scoring Margin: Maryland by 7.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Maryland by 1

The footballs were greased in Pennsylvania on Saturday. Maryland and Penn State combined for eight fumbles, which actually pales in comparison to the 12 ECU and Temple managed across the state. But Maryland was a bit better at falling on the ball, and despite some tragicomic passing downs efficiency (3.7%!), the Terps came away with the win.

Poor Bob Shoop is seeing one of his better coaching efforts go to waste. The Penn State defense ranks ninth in Def. F/+, but the offense ranks 92nd, and PSU's special teams rank 112th, and the Nittany Lions are 4-4, losing the type of games they were winning at Vanderbilt. Vandy won five of its last six one-possession games under James Franklin; PSU's now lost three in a row after winning two in September.