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Study Hall: Texas A&M 21, ULM 16

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M 21, UL-Monroe 16

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Texas A&M UL-Monroe Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 79
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 38.1 24.8 29.8
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
5 3
Points Per Opportunity 4.20 5.33 4.69
Leverage Rate** 68.1% 65.8% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.454 0.434 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Texas A&M UL-Monroe
Total 17.1 17.6
Rushing 10.6 6.1
Passing 6.4 11.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Texas A&M UL-Monroe Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.0% 40.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 52.6% 47.8% 43.4%
Passing (close) 29.0% 37.5% 40.1%
Standard Downs 46.8% 42.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 31.8% 37.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Texas A&M UL-Monroe Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.59 0.55 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.53 0.56 0.73
Passing (close) 0.71 0.55 0.99
Standard Downs 0.57 0.48 0.77
Passing Downs 0.64 0.70 1.14
Line Stats Texas A&M UL-Monroe Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.23 3.22 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 16.7% 10.8% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 15.8% 7.6%
Turnovers Texas A&M UL-Monroe
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.5 1.2
Turnover Margin UL-Monroe +1
Exp. TO Margin UL-Monroe +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) UL-Monroe +0.93
TO Points Margin UL-Monroe +4.3 points
Situational Texas A&M UL-Monroe
Q1 S&P 0.565 0.420
Q2 S&P 0.491 0.544
Q3 S&P 0.423 0.432
Q4 S&P 0.289 0.357
1st Down S&P 0.370 0.483
2nd Down S&P 0.434 0.380
3rd Down S&P 0.466 0.412
Projected Scoring Margin: UL-Monroe by 4.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 5

From today's Numerical:

UL-Monroe has a pretty salty defense. The Warhawks currently rank 65th in Def. F/+ and are easily one of the nation's better mid-major Ds.

Still, it was fair to expect a bit more out of Texas A&M's offense than 21 points and 3.5 yards per play. With freshman quarterback Kyle Allen starting in place of the suspended/usurped Kenny Hill, the Aggies gained 75 yards in 13 plays (5.8 per play) on their opening drive, then gained just 168 in 56 plays (3.0) the rest of the way. Allen completed 13 of 28 passes for 106 yards, a touchdown, an interception, and three sacks. Yards per attempt, including sacks: 2.5. Meanwhile, running backs Brandon Williams and Tra Carson combined for 118 rushing yards on 32 carries, 3.7 per tote.

This is a pretty awesome collapse by the A&M offense. In their first five games, the Aggies averaged 51.2 points per game and 8.0 yards per play. In their next two, they averaged 25.5 and 5.4, respectively. In their last two, they've averaged 10.5 and 3.3. Yes, the competition has increased. But it didn't on Saturday, and the fade continued.

By the way, A&M's next three games come against the No. 10 (Auburn), No. 11 (Missouri), and No. 14 (LSU) defenses, according to Def. F/+.

That a young offense is inconsistent makes sense. But it's blowing my mind that A&M's big plays have also just vanished. I would have assumed the success rates sink while the IsoPPP rates stay pretty high. Instead, it's kind of been the opposite.