TCU 31, West Virginia 30
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
|Basics||TCU||West Virginia||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||38.2||28.7||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||4.43||4.60||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||TCU||West Virginia|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||TCU||West Virginia||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||TCU||West Virginia||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||TCU||West Virginia||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.39||2.58||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||7.7%||18.2%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||12.4||22.5|
|Turnover Margin||TCU +3|
|Exp. TO Margin||TCU +0.51|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||TCU +2.49|
|TO Points Margin||TCU +10.1 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.466||0.534|
|2nd Down S&P||0.560||0.378|
|3rd Down S&P||0.511||0.342|
|Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 14.0|
|Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 1|
On average, a turnover is worth about five points' worth of field position. So if TCU was plus-2.49 turnovers in the luck department, that means that they derived about 12.5 points from happy bounces.
If you're a WVU fan, that's debilitating. If you're a TCU fan ... survive and advance, baby. Everybody needs a little luck sometimes. (Just look at Auburn.)
That said, you know what's also debilitating? Doing nothing in the fourth quarter. WVU had three Q4 possessions: three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out. The "N/A" in the Q4 portion of the above stats signifies that the formula (equivalent points divided by successful plays) doesn't work because the denominator is 0. Ouch.