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Study Hall: TCU 31, West Virginia 30

Justin K. Aller

TCU 31, West Virginia 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics TCU West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 80
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 38.2 28.7 29.8
Possessions 18 17
Scoring Opportunities*
7 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.43 4.60 4.69
Leverage Rate** 70.8% 67.5% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.499 0.440 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) TCU West Virginia
Total 24.9 21.1
Rushing 15.3 11.4
Passing 9.6 9.7
Success Rate (what's this?) TCU West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.7% 37.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 51.2% 34.6% 43.4%
Passing (close) 29.0% 42.9% 40.1%
Standard Downs 47.1% 46.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 28.6% 19.2% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) TCU West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.83 0.70 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.73 0.63 0.73
Passing (close) 1.07 0.81 0.99
Standard Downs 0.54 0.68 0.77
Passing Downs 1.98 0.81 1.14
Line Stats TCU West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.39 2.58 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 18.2% 7.6%
Turnovers TCU West Virginia
Turnovers 2 5
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.4 22.5
Turnover Margin TCU +3
Exp. TO Margin TCU +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) TCU +2.49
TO Points Margin TCU +10.1 points
Situational TCU West Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.615 0.511
Q2 S&P 0.274 0.412
Q3 S&P 0.557 0.560
Q4 S&P 0.556 N/A
1st Down S&P 0.466 0.534
2nd Down S&P 0.560 0.378
3rd Down S&P 0.511 0.342
Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 14.0
Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 1

On average, a turnover is worth about five points' worth of field position. So if TCU was plus-2.49 turnovers in the luck department, that means that they derived about 12.5 points from happy bounces.

If you're a WVU fan, that's debilitating. If you're a TCU fan ... survive and advance, baby. Everybody needs a little luck sometimes. (Just look at Auburn.)

That said, you know what's also debilitating? Doing nothing in the fourth quarter. WVU had three Q4 possessions: three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out. The "N/A" in the Q4 portion of the above stats signifies that the formula (equivalent points divided by successful plays) doesn't work because the denominator is 0. Ouch.