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TCU 31, West Virginia 30
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | TCU | West Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 72 | 80 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 38.2 | 28.7 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 18 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.43 | 4.60 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 70.8% | 67.5% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.499 | 0.440 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | TCU | West Virginia | |
| Total | 24.9 | 21.1 | |
| Rushing | 15.3 | 11.4 | |
| Passing | 9.6 | 9.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | TCU | West Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 41.7% | 37.5% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 51.2% | 34.6% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 29.0% | 42.9% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 47.1% | 46.3% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 28.6% | 19.2% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | TCU | West Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.83 | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.07 | 0.81 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.54 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.98 | 0.81 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | TCU | West Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.39 | 2.58 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.7% | 18.2% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | TCU | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 5 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 12.4 | 22.5 |
| Turnover Margin | TCU +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | TCU +0.51 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | TCU +2.49 | |
| TO Points Margin | TCU +10.1 points | |
| Situational | TCU | West Virginia |
| Q1 S&P | 0.615 | 0.511 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.274 | 0.412 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.557 | 0.560 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.556 | N/A |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.466 | 0.534 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.560 | 0.378 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.511 | 0.342 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 14.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 1 | ||
On average, a turnover is worth about five points' worth of field position. So if TCU was plus-2.49 turnovers in the luck department, that means that they derived about 12.5 points from happy bounces.
If you're a WVU fan, that's debilitating. If you're a TCU fan ... survive and advance, baby. Everybody needs a little luck sometimes. (Just look at Auburn.)
That said, you know what's also debilitating? Doing nothing in the fourth quarter. WVU had three Q4 possessions: three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out. The "N/A" in the Q4 portion of the above stats signifies that the formula (equivalent points divided by successful plays) doesn't work because the denominator is 0. Ouch.