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Notre Dame 49, Navy 39
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Navy | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 77 | 64 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 26.6 | 38.8 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 11 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.33 | 4.45 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 67.5% | 78.1% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.528 | 0.690 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Navy | Notre Dame | |
| Total | 31.9 | 40.8 | |
| Rushing | 22.5 | 19.8 | |
| Passing | 9.3 | 21.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Navy | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 40.3% | 59.4% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 44.8% | 57.9% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 26.3% | 61.5% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 46.2% | 66.0% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 28.0% | 35.7% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Navy | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.03 | 1.07 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.87 | 1.31 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.37 | 2.24 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Navy | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.54 | 4.02 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.1% | 16.7% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Navy | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Notre Dame +0.15 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Navy +0.15 | |
| TO Points Margin | Notre Dame +1.2 points | |
| Situational | Navy | Notre Dame |
| Q1 S&P | 0.563 | 0.782 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.536 | 0.726 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.596 | 0.590 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.436 | 0.709 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.464 | 0.695 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.571 | 0.646 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.552 | 0.800 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Notre Dame by 10.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Notre Dame by 10 | ||
I love it when the projected and actual margins match up.
So basically, a) Notre Dame controlled this game, dominating field position and creating nearly twice as many scoring opportunities as Navy, and b) Navy threatened to win any way because of nearly perfect red zone execution (and a lack thereof for the Irish) and a couple of well-timed big plays. I only got to see the fourth quarter of this one, but ... that sounds about right to me. You?
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