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Study Hall: Notre Dame 49, Navy 39

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Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame 49, Navy 39

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Navy Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 77 64
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.6 38.8 29.8
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 11
Points Per Opportunity 6.33 4.45 4.69
Leverage Rate** 67.5% 78.1% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.528 0.690 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Navy Notre Dame
Total 31.9 40.8
Rushing 22.5 19.8
Passing 9.3 21.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Navy Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.3% 59.4% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 44.8% 57.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 26.3% 61.5% 40.1%
Standard Downs 46.2% 66.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 28.0% 35.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Navy Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.03 1.07 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.87 0.90 0.73
Passing (close) 1.87 1.31 0.99
Standard Downs 0.93 0.90 0.77
Passing Downs 1.37 2.24 1.14
Line Stats Navy Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.54 4.02 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 16.7% 7.6%
Turnovers Navy Notre Dame
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.0 3.8
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Notre Dame +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Navy +0.15
TO Points Margin Notre Dame +1.2 points
Situational Navy Notre Dame
Q1 S&P 0.563 0.782
Q2 S&P 0.536 0.726
Q3 S&P 0.596 0.590
Q4 S&P 0.436 0.709
1st Down S&P 0.464 0.695
2nd Down S&P 0.571 0.646
3rd Down S&P 0.552 0.800
Projected Scoring Margin: Notre Dame by 10.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Notre Dame by 10

I love it when the projected and actual margins match up.

So basically, a) Notre Dame controlled this game, dominating field position and creating nearly twice as many scoring opportunities as Navy, and b) Navy threatened to win any way because of nearly perfect red zone execution (and a lack thereof for the Irish) and a couple of well-timed big plays. I only got to see the fourth quarter of this one, but ... that sounds about right to me. You?