Florida 38, Georgia 20
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||69.9%|
|Avg Starting FP||29.3||24.8||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||6.33||4.20||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Florida||Georgia|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Florida||Georgia||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Florida||Georgia||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Florida||Georgia||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.79||3.45||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||7.1%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||14.3%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||3.9||4.2|
|Exp. TO Margin||Florida +1.54|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Georgia +1.54|
|TO Points Margin||Florida +0.3 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.463||0.529|
|2nd Down S&P||0.641||0.505|
|3rd Down S&P||0.516||0.545|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Florida by 4.5|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Florida by 18|
I tend to stray from things like "intangibles" and "grit" and whatnot. A lot of the thing people try to say are unmeasurable are QUITE measurable and show up pretty clearly on the stat sheet. And when someone describes a game by saying simply that Team A "wanted it more" or Team B "wasn't ready for a fight," I tend to roll my eyes. It's rarely that simple, and descriptions like that tend to just be narrative filler or, as Bill James might say, bullshit.
...I have no explanation for this game beyond "Georgia wasn't ready for a fight" and "Florida wanted it more." Do you? Looking at the stats above, or watching this game with the sound off (and with no knowledge of anything that has happened to date), you'd get the impression that Georgia simply had no answer for a reasonably efficient, explosive run game. But Florida's run game had been neither efficient nor explosive lately. And Georgia's run defense had actually been quite strong. But without even pretending to pass, Florida was unstoppable on passing downs, frequently able to catch back up to schedule. Georgia, the team that was actually trying to pass, couldn't do the same. Georgia, the team with the 95 percent chance of winning, looked like the outmanned, outmuscled underdog.
The more you know about these teams, the less sense this result makes. And it's going to make even less sense when Georgia whips Kentucky on Saturday and Florida loses at home to South Carolina the week after.