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Study Hall: Florida 38, Georgia 20

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Sam Greenwood

Florida 38, Georgia 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 74
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 69.9%
Avg Starting FP 29.3 24.8 29.8
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
6 5
Points Per Opportunity 6.33 4.20 4.69
Leverage Rate** 75.0% 77.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.524 0.454 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida Georgia
Total 30.0 25.8
Rushing 27.9 8.1
Passing 2.0 17.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 44.6% 43.2% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 46.0% 52.2% 43.4%
Passing (close) 33.3% 33.3% 40.1%
Standard Downs 42.9% 47.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 50.0% 30.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.83 0.54 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.82 0.58 0.73
Passing (close) 1.01 0.48 0.99
Standard Downs 0.37 0.48 0.77
Passing Downs 2.03 0.89 1.14
Line Stats Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.79 3.45 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 7.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 14.3% 7.6%
Turnovers Florida Georgia
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.9 4.2
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Florida +1.54
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia +1.54
TO Points Margin Florida +0.3 points
Situational Florida Georgia
Q1 S&P 0.296 0.570
Q2 S&P 0.591 0.240
Q3 S&P 0.562 0.232
Q4 S&P 0.673 0.606
1st Down S&P 0.463 0.529
2nd Down S&P 0.641 0.505
3rd Down S&P 0.516 0.545
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida by 4.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida by 18

I tend to stray from things like "intangibles" and "grit" and whatnot. A lot of the thing people try to say are unmeasurable are QUITE measurable and show up pretty clearly on the stat sheet. And when someone describes a game by saying simply that Team A "wanted it more" or Team B "wasn't ready for a fight," I tend to roll my eyes. It's rarely that simple, and descriptions like that tend to just be narrative filler or, as Bill James might say, bullshit.

That said...

...I have no explanation for this game beyond "Georgia wasn't ready for a fight" and "Florida wanted it more." Do you? Looking at the stats above, or watching this game with the sound off (and with no knowledge of anything that has happened to date), you'd get the impression that Georgia simply had no answer for a reasonably efficient, explosive run game. But Florida's run game had been neither efficient nor explosive lately. And Georgia's run defense had actually been quite strong. But without even pretending to pass, Florida was unstoppable on passing downs, frequently able to catch back up to schedule. Georgia, the team that was actually trying to pass, couldn't do the same. Georgia, the team with the 95 percent chance of winning, looked like the outmanned, outmuscled underdog.

The more you know about these teams, the less sense this result makes. And it's going to make even less sense when Georgia whips Kentucky on Saturday and Florida loses at home to South Carolina the week after.