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Study Hall: Temple 20, East Carolina 10

Mitchell Leff

Temple 20, East Carolina 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 88 56
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 75.7%
Avg Starting FP 21.9 37.8 29.8
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
6 3
Points Per Opportunity 1.67 4.67 4.69
Leverage Rate** 68.8% 66.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.427 0.375 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) East Carolina Temple
Total 20.5 9.9
Rushing 12.2 6.5
Passing 8.2 3.4
Success Rate (what's this?) East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.2% 31.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 31.0% 43.4%
Passing (close) 34.4% 31.3% 40.1%
Standard Downs 45.5% 46.7% 47.1%
Passing Downs 35.0% 0.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.45 0.63 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.46 0.68 0.73
Passing (close) 0.43 0.55 0.99
Standard Downs 0.35 0.60 0.77
Passing Downs 0.72 N/A 1.14
Line Stats East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.41 1.85 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 8.3% 20.0% 7.6%
Turnovers East Carolina Temple
Turnovers 5 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 27.0 0.0
Turnover Margin Temple +5
Exp. TO Margin Temple +2.85
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Temple +2.15
TO Points Margin Temple +27.0 points
Situational East Carolina Temple
Q1 S&P 0.444 0.519
Q2 S&P 0.438 0.207
Q3 S&P 0.397 0.449
Q4 S&P 0.547 0.249
1st Down S&P 0.412 0.330
2nd Down S&P 0.512 0.307
3rd Down S&P 0.564 0.422
Projected Scoring Margin: Temple by 16.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Temple by 10

Twelve fumbles! I realize the weather was sloppy and all, but ... 12 fumbles! And Temple recovered nine of them! Temple didn't convert a single passing down (while facing a TON of them) and won because ... 12 fumbles!

With that much turnovers luck and drastic advantages in terms of both field position and finishing drives, it's a wonder Temple didn't win by quite a bit more. That said, the Owls' defense more than played its part here -- they now rank a healthy 60th in Def. F/+ and 12th on special teams (while the offense serves as an anchor) -- and ... hey, good for Temple. The last couple of years were pretty trying, and the Owls are on the cusp of going bowling again.

Meanwhile, wow, what a costly win for ECU. Hard to imagine the Pirates getting the group of five's major bowl slot at this point. But when you fumble eight times in any weather, it's hard to say you deserved to survive...