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Duke 51, Pittsburgh 48
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Duke | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 58 | 89 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 26.9 | 33.1 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 10 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 10 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.43 | 4.80 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 79.3% | 83.1% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.693 | 0.672 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Duke | Pittsburgh | |
| Total | 33.8 | 39.7 | |
| Rushing | 12.9 | 23.8 | |
| Passing | 20.8 | 15.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Duke | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 63.8% | 67.4% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 70.4% | 69.8% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 58.1% | 61.5% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 69.6% | 71.6% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 41.7% | 46.7% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Duke | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.91 | 0.66 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.16 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.17 | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Duke | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.61 | 4.00 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 12.5% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Duke | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Duke +0.07 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Pittsburgh +0.07 | |
| TO Points Margin | +0 | |
| Situational | Duke | Pittsburgh |
| Q1 S&P | 0.859 | 0.679 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.707 | 0.745 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.505 | 0.661 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.289 | 0.642 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.713 | 0.727 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.709 | 0.597 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.572 | 0.718 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 5.9 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 3 | ||
Special teams generally accounts for about 10-15 percent of a game's outcome. And then you have games like this, in which Duke returns a kickoff for a touchdown and Pitt misses a 26-yarder at the end of regulation, and it feels more like 50 percent.