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Study Hall: Duke 51, Pittsburgh 48

Joe Robbins

Duke 51, Pittsburgh 48

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 58 89
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.9 33.1 29.8
Possessions 10 11
Scoring Opportunities*
7 10
Points Per Opportunity 6.43 4.80 4.69
Leverage Rate** 79.3% 83.1% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.693 0.672 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Pittsburgh
Total 33.8 39.7
Rushing 12.9 23.8
Passing 20.8 15.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
All (close) 63.8% 67.4% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 70.4% 69.8% 43.4%
Passing (close) 58.1% 61.5% 40.1%
Standard Downs 69.6% 71.6% 47.1%
Passing Downs 41.7% 46.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.91 0.66 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.68 0.54 0.73
Passing (close) 1.16 0.99 0.99
Standard Downs 0.87 0.57 0.77
Passing Downs 1.17 1.34 1.14
Line Stats Duke Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.61 4.00 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.6% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 12.5% 7.6%
Turnovers Duke Pittsburgh
Turnovers 0 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Duke +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Pittsburgh +0.07
TO Points Margin +0
Situational Duke Pittsburgh
Q1 S&P 0.859 0.679
Q2 S&P 0.707 0.745
Q3 S&P 0.505 0.661
Q4 S&P 0.289 0.642
1st Down S&P 0.713 0.727
2nd Down S&P 0.709 0.597
3rd Down S&P 0.572 0.718
Projected Scoring Margin: Pittsburgh by 5.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 3

Special teams generally accounts for about 10-15 percent of a game's outcome. And then you have games like this, in which Duke returns a kickoff for a touchdown and Pitt misses a 26-yarder at the end of regulation, and it feels more like 50 percent.