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Study Hall: Oregon 45, Stanford 16

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon 45, Stanford 16

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 77 72
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 80.5%
Avg Starting FP 26.4 25.1 29.8
Possessions 11 11
Scoring Opportunities*
7 7
Points Per Opportunity 6.43 2.29 4.69
Leverage Rate** 74.6% 66.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.608 0.485 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oregon Stanford
Total 37.2 22.3
Rushing 20.4 7.8
Passing 16.8 14.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.4% 42.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 52.9% 35.5% 43.4%
Passing (close) 51.7% 50.0% 40.1%
Standard Downs 55.3% 42.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 43.8% 42.1% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.95 0.74 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.04 0.62 0.73
Passing (close) 0.83 0.85 0.99
Standard Downs 0.94 0.60 0.77
Passing Downs 0.96 1.04 1.14
Line Stats Oregon Stanford Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.09 3.05 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 8.3% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Oregon Stanford
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 1.7 5.5
Turnover Margin Oregon +1
Exp. TO Margin Oregon +0.73
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oregon +0.27
TO Points Margin Oregon +3.8 points
Situational Oregon Stanford
Q1 S&P 0.618 0.471
Q2 S&P 0.573 0.509
Q3 S&P 0.567 0.477
Q4 S&P 0.654 0.439
1st Down S&P 0.624 0.464
2nd Down S&P 0.537 0.453
3rd Down S&P 0.638 0.554
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 18.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 29

From today's Numerical:

Last season against Stanford, Oregon created scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent's 40) on four of eight drives but turned the ball over on downs once and lost two fumbles. Blown chances allowed Stanford to define and dictate an eventual 26-20 Cardinal win.

The tables turned in 2014. Stanford has gone to creative lengths in figuring out how not to score when it has the chance this season, and that trend very much continued on Saturday in Eugene. Both Oregon and Stanford created seven scoring opportunities. In Oregon's seven, the Ducks scored six touchdowns and kicked a field goal. In Stanford's seven, the Cardinal scored one touchdown, kicked three field goals, turned the ball over on downs twice, and threw an interception. The total yardage was similar, and the opportunities were identical. And Oregon won, 45-16.

In 2013, Stanford outgained Oregon by just 65 yards, and the narrative ended up being, "Stanford PHYSICALLY DOMINATES Oregon!"

In 2014, Oregon outgained Stanford by just 97 yards, and the "domination!" meme pulled a perfect 180. This is a sport of pretty small margins, isn't it?

Stanford is now averaging 3.4 points per scoring opportunity, 118th in the country. 118th! You have to almost try to be that bad at one (and only one) single thing.