Oregon 45, Stanford 16
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||80.5%|
|Avg Starting FP||26.4||25.1||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||6.43||2.29||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Oregon||Stanford|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Oregon||Stanford||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Oregon||Stanford||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Oregon||Stanford||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||4.09||3.05||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||4.8%||8.3%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||1.7||5.5|
|Turnover Margin||Oregon +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Oregon +0.73|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Oregon +0.27|
|TO Points Margin||Oregon +3.8 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.624||0.464|
|2nd Down S&P||0.537||0.453|
|3rd Down S&P||0.638||0.554|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 18.8|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 29|
Last season against Stanford, Oregon created scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent's 40) on four of eight drives but turned the ball over on downs once and lost two fumbles. Blown chances allowed Stanford to define and dictate an eventual 26-20 Cardinal win.
The tables turned in 2014. Stanford has gone to creative lengths in figuring out how not to score when it has the chance this season, and that trend very much continued on Saturday in Eugene. Both Oregon and Stanford created seven scoring opportunities. In Oregon's seven, the Ducks scored six touchdowns and kicked a field goal. In Stanford's seven, the Cardinal scored one touchdown, kicked three field goals, turned the ball over on downs twice, and threw an interception. The total yardage was similar, and the opportunities were identical. And Oregon won, 45-16.
In 2013, Stanford outgained Oregon by just 65 yards, and the narrative ended up being, "Stanford PHYSICALLY DOMINATES Oregon!"
In 2014, Oregon outgained Stanford by just 97 yards, and the "domination!" meme pulled a perfect 180. This is a sport of pretty small margins, isn't it?
Stanford is now averaging 3.4 points per scoring opportunity, 118th in the country. 118th! You have to almost try to be that bad at one (and only one) single thing.