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Study Hall: Auburn 35, Ole Miss 31

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Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn 35, Ole Miss 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 68 70
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.3 26.9 29.8
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.83 4.43 4.69
Leverage Rate** 66.2% 70.0% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.585 0.558 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn Ole Miss
Total 33.3 29.8
Rushing 16.5 9.9
Passing 16.9 19.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.1% 47.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 45.7% 42.3% 43.4%
Passing (close) 50.0% 50.0% 40.1%
Standard Downs 51.1% 53.1% 47.1%
Passing Downs 39.1% 33.3% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.04 0.90 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.78 0.90 0.73
Passing (close) 1.53 0.90 0.99
Standard Downs 0.93 0.88 0.77
Passing Downs 1.32 0.99 1.14
Line Stats Auburn Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.67 2.55 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 3.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 17.7% 7.6%
Turnovers Auburn Ole Miss
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.9 12.9
Turnover Margin Auburn +1
Exp. TO Margin Auburn +0.58
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Auburn +0.42
TO Points Margin Auburn +8.0 points
Situational Auburn Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.561 0.495
Q2 S&P 0.606 0.566
Q3 S&P 0.703 0.570
Q4 S&P 0.489 0.627
1st Down S&P 0.578 0.656
2nd Down S&P 0.585 0.460
3rd Down S&P 0.604 0.510
Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn by 11.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 4

Remarkably even game overall, with the teams producing identical success rates, Ole Miss creating one more scoring opportunity, and Auburn finishing opportunities better (i.e. not losing fumbles twice inside the 10). It's still a gut-wrenching way for Ole Miss to lose, but Auburn continues to prove itself as a very, very good team against a very, very tough schedule.