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Study Hall: Mississippi State 17, Arkansas 10

Butch Dill

Mississippi State 17, Arkansas 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 82 62
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 32.3 16.8 29.8
Possessions 11 11
Scoring Opportunities*
5 5
Points Per Opportunity 2.00 3.40 4.69
Leverage Rate** 56.1% 77.4% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.426 0.548 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas Mississippi State
Total 20.7 24.1
Rushing 9.8 7.3
Passing 10.9 16.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.4% 48.4% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 32.4% 48.6% 43.4%
Passing (close) 37.8% 48.2% 40.1%
Standard Downs 37.0% 56.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 33.3% 21.4% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.71 0.80 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.82 0.43 0.73
Passing (close) 0.64 1.29 0.99
Standard Downs 0.54 0.76 0.77
Passing Downs 0.97 1.19 1.14
Line Stats Arkansas Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.08 2.76 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 3.9% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Arkansas Mississippi State
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.1 12.7
Turnover Margin Arkansas +2
Exp. TO Margin Mississippi State +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arkansas +2.15
TO Points Margin Arkansas +7.6 points
Situational Arkansas Mississippi State
Q1 S&P 0.468 0.461
Q2 S&P 0.404 0.619
Q3 S&P 0.493 0.527
Q4 S&P 0.399 0.645
1st Down S&P 0.351 0.631
2nd Down S&P 0.401 0.315
3rd Down S&P 0.532 0.688
Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 4.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 7

Two ways to look at this game:

1. Arkansas should have won! Taking turnovers into account, the Hogs did more than enough to win, and only some incredibly awful drive-finishing prevented them from doing so.

2. Arkansas was immensely lucky from a turnovers perspective, and hey, finishing drives is part of football. Arkansas being awful at it wasn't MSU's fault!

All I know is, Arkansas is figuring out some really creative ways to keep this SEC losing streak going, and it's going to tick me off if they finally get off the schneid against Missouri in a few damn weeks.

(I also know that Dak Prescott is too loose with the football. Both remaining undefeated playoff contenders flirt with disaster a lot.)