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Mississippi State 17, Arkansas 10
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arkansas | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 82 | 62 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.3 | 16.8 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 11 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.00 | 3.40 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 56.1% | 77.4% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.426 | 0.548 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arkansas | Mississippi State | |
| Total | 20.7 | 24.1 | |
| Rushing | 9.8 | 7.3 | |
| Passing | 10.9 | 16.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arkansas | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 35.4% | 48.4% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 32.4% | 48.6% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 37.8% | 48.2% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 37.0% | 56.3% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 21.4% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arkansas | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.71 | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.82 | 0.43 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 0.64 | 1.29 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.97 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Arkansas | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.08 | 2.76 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 3.9% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Arkansas | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.1 | 12.7 |
| Turnover Margin | Arkansas +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Mississippi State +0.15 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arkansas +2.15 | |
| TO Points Margin | Arkansas +7.6 points | |
| Situational | Arkansas | Mississippi State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.468 | 0.461 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.404 | 0.619 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.493 | 0.527 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.399 | 0.645 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.351 | 0.631 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.401 | 0.315 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.532 | 0.688 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 4.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Mississippi State by 7 | ||
Two ways to look at this game:
1. Arkansas should have won! Taking turnovers into account, the Hogs did more than enough to win, and only some incredibly awful drive-finishing prevented them from doing so.
2. Arkansas was immensely lucky from a turnovers perspective, and hey, finishing drives is part of football. Arkansas being awful at it wasn't MSU's fault!
All I know is, Arkansas is figuring out some really creative ways to keep this SEC losing streak going, and it's going to tick me off if they finally get off the schneid against Missouri in a few damn weeks.
(I also know that Dak Prescott is too loose with the football. Both remaining undefeated playoff contenders flirt with disaster a lot.)