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Study Hall: Florida State 42, Louisville 31

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Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State 42, Louisville 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 81 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.9 26.1 29.8
Possessions 16 15
Scoring Opportunities*
8 7
Points Per Opportunity 5.25 4.43 4.69
Leverage Rate** 70.4% 77.5% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.581 0.584 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Louisville
Total 40.0 30.9
Rushing 16.9 12.4
Passing 23.0 18.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 45.7% 52.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 41.9% 56.3% 43.4%
Passing (close) 48.0% 48.7% 40.1%
Standard Downs 49.1% 60.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 37.5% 25.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.08 0.83 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.30 0.69 0.73
Passing (close) 0.96 0.97 0.99
Standard Downs 0.96 0.85 0.77
Passing Downs 1.46 0.71 1.14
Line Stats Florida State Louisville Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.96 3.40 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.1% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.6% 10.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Florida State Louisville
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.9 6.8
Turnover Margin Louisville +1
Exp. TO Margin Louisville +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +0.56
TO Points Margin Louisville +3.1 points
Situational Florida State Louisville
Q1 S&P 0.329 0.523
Q2 S&P 0.612 0.898
Q3 S&P 0.663 0.378
Q4 S&P 0.711 0.501
1st Down S&P 0.520 0.646
2nd Down S&P 0.529 0.690
3rd Down S&P 0.766 0.256
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 6.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 11

I've written a lot of words about this game already, so instead of repeating them, I'll just point to some really quick notes from the numbers above:

1. The FSU offense was a disaster in the first quarter.

2. The FSU defense was a disaster in the second quarter.

3. In terms of turnovers luck, FSU didn't benefit as much as one would immediately think. The 'Noles did recover both of the game's fumbles (one in Louisville's end zone), and one of the luckiest plays of the game (Jameis Winston's pass to Ermon Lane, which reached Lane because two Louisville defenders ran into each other) doesn't show up here. But even with that and a dropped Louisville INT, the Seminoles were ALSO unlucky not to force more turnovers. They had one pick to seven break-ups, whereas the normal ratio is about 1-to-3.

4. Despite the rare missed field goal, special teams still worked out in FSU's favor. Net punting: FSU 40.2 yards, Louisville 31.0. That helped quite a bit in the field position battle. Your punting isn't terrible anymore, 'Noles!