Florida State 42, Louisville 31
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|Basics||Florida State||Louisville||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||30.9||26.1||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.25||4.43||4.69|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Florida State||Louisville|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Florida State||Louisville||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Florida State||Louisville||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Florida State||Louisville||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.96||3.40||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||3.1%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||5.6%||10.0%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||9.9||6.8|
|Turnover Margin||Louisville +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Louisville +0.44|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Louisville +0.56|
|TO Points Margin||Louisville +3.1 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.520||0.646|
|2nd Down S&P||0.529||0.690|
|3rd Down S&P||0.766||0.256|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 6.0|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 11|
I've written a lot of words about this game already, so instead of repeating them, I'll just point to some really quick notes from the numbers above:
1. The FSU offense was a disaster in the first quarter.
2. The FSU defense was a disaster in the second quarter.
3. In terms of turnovers luck, FSU didn't benefit as much as one would immediately think. The 'Noles did recover both of the game's fumbles (one in Louisville's end zone), and one of the luckiest plays of the game (Jameis Winston's pass to Ermon Lane, which reached Lane because two Louisville defenders ran into each other) doesn't show up here. But even with that and a dropped Louisville INT, the Seminoles were ALSO unlucky not to force more turnovers. They had one pick to seven break-ups, whereas the normal ratio is about 1-to-3.
4. Despite the rare missed field goal, special teams still worked out in FSU's favor. Net punting: FSU 40.2 yards, Louisville 31.0. That helped quite a bit in the field position battle. Your punting isn't terrible anymore, 'Noles!