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Study Hall: Baylor 49, Oklahoma State 28

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor 49, Oklahoma State 28

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Basics Baylor Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 87 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 85.8%
Avg Starting FP 35.5 25.5 30.0
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
8 5
Points Per Opportunity 6.12 5.60 4.64
Leverage Rate** 74.1% 65.4% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.622 0.422 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma State
Total 42.5 25.3
Rushing 25.3 8.8
Passing 17.1 16.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 55.6% 32.7% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 59.6% 28.1% 43.3%
Passing (close) 48.3% 40.0% 40.2%
Standard Downs 61.7% 38.2% 47.0%
Passing Downs 38.1% 22.2% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Baylor Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.89 0.80 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.74 0.54 0.74
Passing (close) 1.22 1.09 0.98
Standard Downs 0.72 0.49 0.77
Passing Downs 1.64 1.80 1.14
Line Stats Baylor Oklahoma State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.19 2.28 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 20.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Baylor Oklahoma State
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.1 9.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin +0
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) +0
TO Points Margin Baylor +3.9 points
Situational Baylor Oklahoma State
Q1 S&P 0.682 0.468
Q2 S&P 0.552 0.502
Q3 S&P 0.637 0.205
Q4 S&P 0.574 0.641
1st Down S&P 0.461 0.585
2nd Down S&P 0.724 0.386
3rd Down S&P 0.632 0.551
Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 21.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Baylor by 21

Weird game. Baylor went up big early and was never seriously threatened (the lead was never in the single digits after the first quarter), but the Bears couldn't quite close the door on this one until late. BU was up 28-7 and 42-14, but two quick OSU touchdowns made it 42-28 early in the fourth quarter, and the Cowboys got the ball back to the Baylor 41 with 5:00 left. And then Mason Rudolph threw an interception, Bryce Petty ran for a score, and that was that.