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Study Hall: Wake Forest 6, Virginia Tech 3

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Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Wake Forest 6, Virginia Tech 3

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Virginia Tech Wake Forest Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 68 74
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.6 35.7 30.0
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
4 7
Points Per Opportunity 0.75 0.86 4.64
Leverage Rate** 60.3% 58.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.343 0.338 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Virginia Tech Wake Forest
Total 9.3 11.0
Rushing 5.7 4.5
Passing 3.7 6.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Virginia Tech Wake Forest Nat'l Avg
All (close) 32.4% 29.7% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 35.3% 25.7% 43.3%
Passing (close) 29.4% 33.3% 40.2%
Standard Downs 48.8% 39.5% 47.0%
Passing Downs 7.4% 16.1% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Virginia Tech Wake Forest Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.42 0.50 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.47 0.50 0.74
Passing (close) 0.37 0.50 0.98
Standard Downs 0.41 0.42 0.77
Passing Downs 0.60 0.76 1.14
Line Stats Virginia Tech Wake Forest Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.27 2.03 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 26.3% 23.8% 7.6%
Turnovers Virginia Tech Wake Forest
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 11.4 4.7
Turnover Margin Wake Forest +2
Exp. TO Margin Wake Forest +1.24
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Wake Forest +0.76
TO Points Margin Wake Forest +6.7 points
Situational Virginia Tech Wake Forest
Q1 S&P 0.316 0.337
Q2 S&P 0.394 0.329
Q3 S&P 0.316 0.429
Q4 S&P 0.406 0.339
1st Down S&P 0.451 0.433
2nd Down S&P 0.290 0.171
3rd Down S&P 0.184 0.342
Projected Scoring Margin: Wake Forest by 8.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Wake Forest by 3

Including overtimes, there were 11 scoring opportunities in this game. On average, that would produce about 51 points. Slightly more than nine.

This game was special. Virginia Tech had 16 tackles for loss and lost. Wake Forest missed three field goals and won. I think I'll put this on my year-end Top 100 Games of 2014 list just to see if people are paying attention.