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Study Hall: Minnesota 28, Nebraska 24

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Minnesota 28, Nebraska 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Minnesota Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 74 58
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 25.2 23.3 30.0
Possessions 11 9
Scoring Opportunities*
5 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.60 3.40 4.64
Leverage Rate** 78.4% 69.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.537 0.542 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Minnesota Nebraska
Total 26.5 19.2
Rushing 20.3 10.1
Passing 6.2 9.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Minnesota Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.7% 51.7% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 51.9% 61.8% 43.3%
Passing (close) 40.0% 37.5% 40.2%
Standard Downs 53.5% 57.5% 47.0%
Passing Downs 31.3% 38.9% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Minnesota Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.74 0.64 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.73 0.48 0.74
Passing (close) 0.78 1.01 0.98
Standard Downs 0.69 0.62 0.77
Passing Downs 1.06 0.70 1.14
Line Stats Minnesota Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.95 3.67 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 23.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 18.2% 9.1% 7.6%
Turnovers Minnesota Nebraska
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 12.6
Turnover Margin Minnesota +2
Exp. TO Margin Minnesota +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Minnesota +1.71
TO Points Margin Minnesota +12.6 points
Situational Minnesota Nebraska
Q1 S&P 0.519 0.639
Q2 S&P 0.472 0.599
Q3 S&P 0.696 0.493
Q4 S&P 0.496 0.469
1st Down S&P 0.482 0.522
2nd Down S&P 0.561 0.422
3rd Down S&P 0.539 0.727
Projected Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 20.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 4

Take away turnovers luck, and Nebraska probably wins this game. But taking turnovers into account, Minnesota should have won by even more. NU's blocked field goal return touchdown gave the Huskers a 21-7 lead their offense and defense alone hadn't earned, but a tremendous third quarter for Minnesota turned the tide.

Between the injuries and the red zone turnovers, though ... it was pretty easy to feel sorry for Nebraska on Saturday. No breaks (aside from the blocked FG, that is). And now Minnesota's one game (a likely loss, of course) away from the Big Ten West title.