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Minnesota 28, Nebraska 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Minnesota | Nebraska | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 74 | 58 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 25.2 | 23.3 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 11 | 9 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.60 | 3.40 | 4.64 |
| Leverage Rate** | 78.4% | 69.0% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.537 | 0.542 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Minnesota | Nebraska | |
| Total | 26.5 | 19.2 | |
| Rushing | 20.3 | 10.1 | |
| Passing | 6.2 | 9.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Minnesota | Nebraska | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 48.7% | 51.7% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 51.9% | 61.8% | 43.3% |
| Passing (close) | 40.0% | 37.5% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 53.5% | 57.5% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 31.3% | 38.9% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Minnesota | Nebraska | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.74 | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.73 | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.78 | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.06 | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Minnesota | Nebraska | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.95 | 3.67 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 23.1% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 18.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Minnesota | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 12.6 |
| Turnover Margin | Minnesota +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Minnesota +0.29 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Minnesota +1.71 | |
| TO Points Margin | Minnesota +12.6 points | |
| Situational | Minnesota | Nebraska |
| Q1 S&P | 0.519 | 0.639 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.472 | 0.599 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.696 | 0.493 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.496 | 0.469 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.482 | 0.522 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.561 | 0.422 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.539 | 0.727 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 20.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Minnesota by 4 | ||
Take away turnovers luck, and Nebraska probably wins this game. But taking turnovers into account, Minnesota should have won by even more. NU's blocked field goal return touchdown gave the Huskers a 21-7 lead their offense and defense alone hadn't earned, but a tremendous third quarter for Minnesota turned the tide.
Between the injuries and the red zone turnovers, though ... it was pretty easy to feel sorry for Nebraska on Saturday. No breaks (aside from the blocked FG, that is). And now Minnesota's one game (a likely loss, of course) away from the Big Ten West title.