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Louisville 31, Notre Dame 28
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Louisville | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 71 | 53 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.6 | 32.8 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.17 | 4.50 | 4.64 |
| Leverage Rate** | 60.6% | 66.0% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.499 | 0.515 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Louisville | Notre Dame | |
| Total | 26.7 | 21.4 | |
| Rushing | 18.0 | 7.1 | |
| Passing | 8.8 | 14.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Louisville | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 36.6% | 37.7% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 41.3% | 30.8% | 43.3% |
| Passing (close) | 28.0% | 44.4% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 41.9% | 40.0% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 28.6% | 33.3% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Louisville | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.03 | 1.07 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.25 | 1.19 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.80 | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.53 | 1.61 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Louisville | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.28 | 1.50 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 18.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 14.3% | 16.7% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Louisville | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.9 | 5.3 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Notre Dame +0.15 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Louisville +0.15 | |
| TO Points Margin | Louisville +4.5 points | |
| Situational | Louisville | Notre Dame |
| Q1 S&P | 0.682 | 0.558 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.220 | 0.186 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.580 | 0.647 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.446 | 0.558 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.341 | 0.544 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.678 | 0.321 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.449 | 0.705 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Louisville by 9.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Louisville by 3 | ||
Louisville won at Notre Dame with a freshman quarterback playing like a freshman quarterback. Hard to do, that. Reggie Bonnafon was 8-for-21 for 180 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and four sacks for a loss of 32 yards. That's not particularly good. But Louisville's run game was outstanding (in part because Bonnafon rushed 11 times for 67 yards), and the Cardinals were able to take slightly fuller advantage of their six scoring opportunities than Notre Dame. With a strong defense, you can overcome freshman mistakes on offense, I guess.