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Study Hall: Louisville 31, Notre Dame 28

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville 31, Notre Dame 28

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Louisville Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 71 53
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.6 32.8 30.0
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 5.17 4.50 4.64
Leverage Rate** 60.6% 66.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.499 0.515 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Louisville Notre Dame
Total 26.7 21.4
Rushing 18.0 7.1
Passing 8.8 14.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Louisville Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.6% 37.7% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 41.3% 30.8% 43.3%
Passing (close) 28.0% 44.4% 40.2%
Standard Downs 41.9% 40.0% 47.0%
Passing Downs 28.6% 33.3% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Louisville Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.03 1.07 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.95 0.89 0.74
Passing (close) 1.25 1.19 0.98
Standard Downs 0.80 0.84 0.77
Passing Downs 1.53 1.61 1.14
Line Stats Louisville Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.28 1.50 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 18.2% 6.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 16.7% 7.6%
Turnovers Louisville Notre Dame
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.9 5.3
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Notre Dame +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +0.15
TO Points Margin Louisville +4.5 points
Situational Louisville Notre Dame
Q1 S&P 0.682 0.558
Q2 S&P 0.220 0.186
Q3 S&P 0.580 0.647
Q4 S&P 0.446 0.558
1st Down S&P 0.341 0.544
2nd Down S&P 0.678 0.321
3rd Down S&P 0.449 0.705
Projected Scoring Margin: Louisville by 9.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Louisville by 3

Louisville won at Notre Dame with a freshman quarterback playing like a freshman quarterback. Hard to do, that. Reggie Bonnafon was 8-for-21 for 180 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and four sacks for a loss of 32 yards. That's not particularly good. But Louisville's run game was outstanding (in part because Bonnafon rushed 11 times for 67 yards), and the Cardinals were able to take slightly fuller advantage of their six scoring opportunities than Notre Dame. With a strong defense, you can overcome freshman mistakes on offense, I guess.