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Study Hall: UCLA 38, USC 20

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

UCLA 38, USC 20

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Basics UCLA USC Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 74 67
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 64.5%
Avg Starting FP 28.1 30.0 30.0
Possessions 14 13
Scoring Opportunities*
7 4
Points Per Opportunity 5.43 3.50 4.64
Leverage Rate** 78.8% 66.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.620 0.441 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) UCLA USC
Total 32.6 15.9
Rushing 10.2 5.5
Passing 22.4 10.4
Success Rate (what's this?) UCLA USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 51.9% 38.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 48.0% 43.8% 43.3%
Passing (close) 55.6% 34.8% 40.2%
Standard Downs 53.7% 42.3% 47.0%
Passing Downs 45.5% 30.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) UCLA USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.02 0.67 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.65 0.40 0.74
Passing (close) 1.32 0.90 0.98
Standard Downs 0.97 0.53 0.77
Passing Downs 1.24 1.04 1.14
Line Stats UCLA USC Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.86 2.89 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 7.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 11.1% 7.6%
Turnovers UCLA USC
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 11.7 9.4
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin UCLA +0.59
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) USC +0.59
TO Points Margin USC +2.3 points
Situational UCLA USC
Q1 S&P 0.672 0.364
Q2 S&P 0.607 0.626
Q3 S&P 0.555 0.221
Q4 S&P 0.515 0.498
1st Down S&P 0.656 0.477
2nd Down S&P 0.391 0.263
3rd Down S&P 0.582 0.541
Projected Scoring Margin: UCLA by 14.5
Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 18

Man ... when UCLA is getting big offensive plays -- and I would assume that passes of 18, 21 25, 31, 38, and 57 yards counts as big plays -- the Bruins look like a national title team. USC's offensive line was as porous as ever and couldn't keep a mediocre pass rush (to date) away from Cody Kessler. This was domination. Thanks in part to a pick six, the score made it seem closer than it was.