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Study Hall: Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 0

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Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 0

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 71.7%
Avg Starting FP 43.6 21.4 30.0
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.83 0.00 4.64
Leverage Rate** 71.2% 72.3% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.498 0.379 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas Ole Miss
Total 19.5 13.5
Rushing 10.1 3.0
Passing 9.4 10.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.4% 31.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 38.2% 16.7% 43.3%
Passing (close) 44.4% 41.4% 40.2%
Standard Downs 46.0% 29.4% 47.0%
Passing Downs 26.7% 38.5% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.87 0.62 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.69 0.58 0.74
Passing (close) 1.17 0.63 0.98
Standard Downs 0.78 0.71 0.77
Passing Downs 1.25 0.44 1.14
Line Stats Arkansas Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.71 2.25 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 5.9% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 8.3% 7.6%
Turnovers Arkansas Ole Miss
Turnovers 1 6
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.1 38.4
Turnover Margin Arkansas +5
Exp. TO Margin Arkansas +2.56
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arkansas +2.44
TO Points Margin Arkansas +34.4 points
Situational Arkansas Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.669 0.272
Q2 S&P 0.360 0.400
Q3 S&P 0.455 0.461
Q4 S&P 0.186 0.403
1st Down S&P 0.502 0.428
2nd Down S&P 0.452 0.410
3rd Down S&P 0.296 0.325
Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 40.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 30

Arkansas was certainly the better team here. The Hogs were more efficient, especially on standard downs, and they had five 20+ yard gains to Ole Miss' three. But it very much cracks me up that these two teams had the same number of scoring opportunities, and one team won by 30. That's hard to do.

Arkansas' six scoring opportunities: TD, FG, TD, MFG, FG, FG. That's not great.

Ole Miss' six scoring opportunities: FUM, INT, Downs, INT, Downs, FUM, INT. That's amazing.