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Florida State 20, Boston College 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Boston College | Florida State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 62 | 61 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 25.3 | 23.9 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 9 | 9 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.64 |
| Leverage Rate** | 75.8% | 77.1% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.508 | 0.561 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Boston College | Florida State | |
| Total | 18.1 | 22.6 | |
| Rushing | 12.7 | 6.6 | |
| Passing | 5.4 | 16.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Boston College | Florida State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 48.4% | 52.5% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 52.0% | 41.4% | 43.3% |
| Passing (close) | 33.3% | 62.5% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 51.1% | 57.5% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 40.0% | 35.7% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Boston College | Florida State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.35 | 0.80 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.98 | 1.42 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Boston College | Florida State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.24 | 2.33 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 12.5% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Boston College | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Turnover Margin | Boston College +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Florida State +0.73 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Boston College +1.73 | |
| TO Points Margin | Boston College +3.2 points | |
| Situational | Boston College | Florida State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.555 | 0.646 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.578 | 0.556 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.491 | 0.524 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.455 | 0.502 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.471 | 0.566 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.462 | 0.573 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.642 | 0.550 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 1.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 3 | ||
This was a really even game, even more even than I realized while watching it. Field position and drive finishing were about equal, efficiency was about the same -- BC was carried by its run and FSU by its pass, but the end numbers were about the same (and BC actually had more frequent success on passing downs) -- and big plays were mostly non-existent. Toss in the fact that turnovers favored BC, and that could have been that. But FSU was able to create one more scoring opportunity than BC, and considering the dearth of drives (16 total if you don't count end-of-half possessions), that was enough.
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