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Study Hall: Florida State 20, Boston College 17

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Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State 20, Boston College 17

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Basics Boston College Florida State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 62 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 25.3 23.9 30.0
Possessions 9 9
Scoring Opportunities*
4 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.25 4.00 4.64
Leverage Rate** 75.8% 77.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.508 0.561 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Boston College Florida State
Total 18.1 22.6
Rushing 12.7 6.6
Passing 5.4 16.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Boston College Florida State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.4% 52.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 52.0% 41.4% 43.3%
Passing (close) 33.3% 62.5% 40.2%
Standard Downs 51.1% 57.5% 47.0%
Passing Downs 40.0% 35.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Boston College Florida State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.60 0.71 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.49 0.55 0.74
Passing (close) 1.35 0.80 0.98
Standard Downs 0.51 0.57 0.77
Passing Downs 0.98 1.42 1.14
Line Stats Boston College Florida State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.24 2.33 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Boston College Florida State
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 3.2
Turnover Margin Boston College +1
Exp. TO Margin Florida State +0.73
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Boston College +1.73
TO Points Margin Boston College +3.2 points
Situational Boston College Florida State
Q1 S&P 0.555 0.646
Q2 S&P 0.578 0.556
Q3 S&P 0.491 0.524
Q4 S&P 0.455 0.502
1st Down S&P 0.471 0.566
2nd Down S&P 0.462 0.573
3rd Down S&P 0.642 0.550
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 1.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 3

This was a really even game, even more even than I realized while watching it. Field position and drive finishing were about equal, efficiency was about the same -- BC was carried by its run and FSU by its pass, but the end numbers were about the same (and BC actually had more frequent success on passing downs) -- and big plays were mostly non-existent. Toss in the fact that turnovers favored BC, and that could have been that. But FSU was able to create one more scoring opportunity than BC, and considering the dearth of drives (16 total if you don't count end-of-half possessions), that was enough.