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Study Hall: Kansas State 26, West Virginia 20

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas State 26, West Virginia 20

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Basics Kansas State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 63 85
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 35.3 30.1 30.0
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
7 8
Points Per Opportunity 2.71 2.50 4.64
Leverage Rate** 57.1% 63.5% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.486 0.455 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas State West Virginia
Total 22.8 24.5
Rushing 0.1 6.9
Passing 22.7 17.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.9% 37.7% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 6.9% 36.4% 43.3%
Passing (close) 58.8% 38.5% 40.2%
Standard Downs 33.3% 35.2% 47.0%
Passing Downs 37.0% 41.9% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.03 0.77 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.04 0.57 0.74
Passing (close) 1.13 0.88 0.98
Standard Downs 0.83 0.57 0.77
Passing Downs 1.28 1.06 1.14
Line Stats Kansas State West Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) -0.44 3.28 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 10.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.6% 7.6%
Turnovers Kansas State West Virginia
Turnovers 2 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.2 19.9
Turnover Margin Kansas State +2
Exp. TO Margin Kansas State +0.95
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kansas State +1.05
TO Points Margin Kansas State +13.7 points
Situational Kansas State West Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.631 0.342
Q2 S&P 0.357 0.310
Q3 S&P 0.431 0.648
Q4 S&P 0.530 0.509
1st Down S&P 0.480 0.361
2nd Down S&P 0.528 0.556
3rd Down S&P 0.475 0.461
Projected Scoring Margin: Kansas State by 12.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Kansas State by 6

West Virginia's defense had 10 tackles for loss in 63 plays, and KSU's running game looked absolutely abysmal. But the Wildcats won because they have Tyler Lockett and WVU doesn't. (They also didn't have as many turnovers.) KSU's offense was better on passing downs than standard downs, which ... isn't exactly normal. Or sustainable. But hey, sustainability is a much greater concern in September than late-November.