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I think it's pretty clear that NEW is not always better than OLD.
| ATS | Week 12 | 2014 Season |
| "NEW" Method | 20-28-2 (42%) | 303-321-14 (49%) |
| "OLD" Method | 25-23-2 (52%) | 296-283-13 (51%) |
Doesn't look like OLD is going to recover from a worse-than-normal Week 1. Alas, it remains over 50%, which is all I need to see.
| Straight Up | Week 12 | 2014 Season |
| Teams with 50-60% chance of winning | 2-1 (67%) | 27-30 (47%) |
| Teams with 60-70% chance of winning | 9-5 (64%) | 95-64 (60%) |
| Teams with 70-80% chance of winning | 8-4 (67%) | 124-40 (76%) |
| Teams with 80-90% chance of winning | 9-2 (82%) | 142-30 (83%) |
| Teams with 90-100% chance of winning | 7-3 (70%) | 122-10 (92%) |
So the 80%+ teams have been winning at a lower rate than normal, which is a bit of a concern, but I was already going to be making some changes to the way probabilities are set up anyway. We'll see how the end of the string works out here.
Week 13: FBS vs FBS
Your weekly disclaimer: the margins are all that matter. The projected scores are for awful, i.e. for entertainment value only.
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Massachusetts at Akron | -8 | Akron by 5.9 (32.1 - 26.2) | 64.0% | Massachusetts | Akron by 3.8 | Massachusetts | |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Northern Illinois at Ohio | 1 | Northern Illinois by 12.7 (39.6 - 26.9) | 72.3% | Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois by 7.2 | Northern Illinois | |
| Wed | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Bowling Green at Toledo | -7 | Toledo by 28.9 (63.6 - 34.7) | 86.6% | Toledo | Toledo by 16.6 | Toledo | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas State at West Virginia | -2.5 | West Virginia by 2.7 (32.5 - 29.7) | 59.4% | West Virginia | West Virginia by 1.9 | Kansas State | XXX |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | North Carolina at Duke | -6 | Duke by 34.9 (53.4 - 18.5) | 91.8% | Duke | Duke by 21.1 | Duke | |
| Thu | 9:30 PM | ESPNU | Arkansas State at Texas State | 6.5 | Arkansas State by 15.3 (41.1 - 25.9) | 73.9% | Arkansas State | Arkansas State by 8.0 | Arkansas State | |
| Fri | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at Buffalo | -7 | Buffalo by 2.9 (25.3 - 22.4) | 60.3% | Kent State | Buffalo by 2.2 | Kent State | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | FS1 | UTEP at Rice | -7.5 | Rice by 6.2 (37.0 - 30.8) | 64.5% | UTEP | Rice by 4.1 | UTEP | |
| Fri | 9:30 PM | CBSSN | Air Force at San Diego State | -5.5 | Air Force by 16.6 (27.5 - 10.9) | 76.7% | Air Force | Air Force by 9.5 | Air Force | |
| Fri | 9:30 PM | ESPN2 | San Jose State at Utah State | -13 | Utah State by 30.1 (32.5 - 2.5) | 89.6% | Utah State | Utah State by 19.1 | Utah State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Indiana at Ohio State | -34.5 | Ohio State by 69.1 (69.2 - 0.1) | 98.6% | Ohio State | Ohio State by 41.1 | Ohio State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas at Oklahoma | -25 | Oklahoma by 61.6 (58.5 - -3.2) | 98.6% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 37.1 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | $CSLive | Marshall at UAB | -20 | Marshall by 40.8 (50.1 - 9.4) | 94.4% | Marshall | Marshall by 23.4 | Marshall | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Minnesota at Nebraska | -10 | Nebraska by 13.5 (32.1 - 18.6) | 73.8% | Nebraska | Nebraska by 8.6 | Minnesota | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Northwestern at Purdue | 0 | Purdue by 1.1 (25.5 - 24.4) | 57.3% | Purdue | Purdue by 1.0 | Purdue | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Penn State at Illinois | 6.5 | Penn State by 20.9 (26.3 - 5.4) | 82.6% | Penn State | Penn State by 13.2 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Rutgers at Michigan State | -22.5 | Michigan State by 31.1 (46.9 - 15.8) | 90.2% | Michigan State | Michigan State by 19.5 | Rutgers | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | SMU at Central Florida | -28 | Central Florida by 50.5 (44.6 - -5.9) | 98.5% | Central Florida | Central Florida by 33.3 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at South Carolina | -25.5 | South Carolina by 32.0 (54.6 - 22.5) | 90.1% | South Carolina | South Carolina by 19.5 | South Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | UTSA at Western Kentucky | -9 | Western Kentucky by 9.9 (31.8 - 21.9) | 69.8% | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky by 6.5 | UTSA | XXX |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia Tech at Wake Forest | 15 | Virginia Tech by 32.9 (18.9 - -6.7) | 92.7% | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech by 21.5 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | FCS | Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion | 11.5 | Louisiana Tech by 20.9 (44.5 - 23.6) | 83.3% | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech by 13.6 | Louisiana Tech | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington State at Arizona State | -16 | Arizona State by 45.5 (68.9 - 30.5) | 95.5% | Arizona State | Arizona State by 25.6 | Arizona State | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan | -1 | Western Michigan by 11.8 (34.5 - 22.7) | 72.5% | Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 7.3 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 1:30 PM | RSRM | New Mexico at Colorado State | -21.5 | Colorado State by 35.9 (56.9 - 21.0) | 94.5% | Colorado State | Colorado State by 24.2 | Colorado State | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Ball State | -17 | Ball State by 37.4 (39.4 - 2.0) | 94.7% | Ball State | Ball State by 24.4 | Ball State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Arizona at Utah | -4 | Utah by 7.2 (26.3 - 19.1) | 64.9% | Utah | Utah by 4.3 | Utah | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Boston College at Florida State | -19 | Florida State by 25.9 (46.5 - 20.7) | 86.8% | Florida State | Florida State by 16.7 | Boston College | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ASN | Florida International at North Texas | -2.5 | Florida International by 10.1 (23.2 - 13.1) | 70.3% | Florida International | Florida International by 6.2 | Florida International | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Clemson | -40.5 | Clemson by 76.1 (72.7 - -3.4) | 98.6% | Clemson | Clemson by 45.3 | Clemson | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Louisville at Notre Dame | -3 | Louisville by 0.2 (22.3 - 22.1) | 55.9% | Louisville | Notre Dame by 0.2 | Louisville | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Maryland at Michigan | -5 | Michigan by 0.2 (15.2 - 15.0) | 56.0% | Maryland | Michigan by 0.4 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Ole Miss at Arkansas | 3.5 | Ole Miss by 20.4 (34.6 - 14.3) | 81.0% | Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 12.1 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Syracuse at Pittsburgh | -7.5 | Pittsburgh by 19.4 (42.1 - 22.7) | 80.3% | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh by 12.3 | Pittsburgh | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | Texas Tech at Iowa State | -1 | Iowa State by 2.8 (47.8 - 45.0) | 59.8% | Iowa State | Iowa State by 2.0 | Iowa State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Tulane at East Carolina | -17.5 | East Carolina by 29.4 (45.3 - 15.8) | 88.0% | East Carolina | East Carolina by 17.7 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Tulsa at Houston | -20 | Houston by 33.0 (48.4 - 15.4) | 89.3% | Houston | Houston by 18.8 | Tulsa | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Wisconsin at Iowa | 10 | Wisconsin by 25.9 (34.2 - 8.2) | 86.0% | Wisconsin | Wisconsin by 15.6 | Wisconsin | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | South Florida at Memphis | -18.5 | Memphis by 46.8 (42.6 - -4.2) | 98.0% | Memphis | Memphis by 30.6 | Memphis | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | Stanford at California | 5.5 | Stanford by 5.5 (27.3 - 21.8) | 63.6% | California | Stanford by 3.1 | California | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at New Mexico State | 8 | UL-Monroe by 5.2 (29.2 - 24.1) | 62.9% | New Mexico State | UL-Monroe by 2.7 | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at Oregon | -32.5 | Oregon by 68.0 (80.0 - 12.1) | 98.6% | Oregon | Oregon by 37.2 | Oregon | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at UL-Lafayette | -10 | UL-Lafayette by 27.3 (53.5 - 26.2) | 86.7% | UL-Lafayette | UL-Lafayette by 16.7 | UL-Lafayette | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ASN | Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee | -7 | Middle Tennessee by 16.2 (36.0 - 19.8) | 77.1% | Middle Tennessee | Middle Tennessee by 10.4 | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Miami-FL at Virginia | 6 | Miami-FL by 18.5 (30.4 - 12.0) | 80.5% | Miami-FL | Miami-FL by 11.8 | Miami-FL | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Missouri at Tennessee | -3 | Tennessee by 3.7 (14.0 - 10.3) | 61.2% | Tennessee | Tennessee by 2.6 | Missouri | XXX |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Fox | Oklahoma State at Baylor | -28.5 | Baylor by 61.4 (63.9 - 2.5) | 98.5% | Baylor | Baylor by 33.1 | Baylor | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | Vanderbilt at Mississippi State | -30.5 | Mississippi State by 68.1 (60.9 - -7.1) | 98.6% | Mississippi State | Mississippi State by 44.9 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Cincinnati at Connecticut | 9.5 | Cincinnati by 14.0 (35.1 - 21.1) | 76.0% | Cincinnati | Cincinnati by 9.2 | Connecticut | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | USC at UCLA | -3 | UCLA by 8.0 (42.3 - 34.3) | 66.2% | UCLA | UCLA by 4.8 | UCLA | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Boise State at Wyoming | 12 | Boise State by 36.1 (47.6 - 11.6) | 92.7% | Boise State | Boise State by 21.4 | Boise State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPNU | Fresno State at Nevada | -7.5 | Nevada by 38.8 (60.3 - 21.5) | 92.9% | Nevada | Nevada by 22.3 | Nevada | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | Oregon State at Washington | -6 | Washington by 6.3 (28.5 - 22.1) | 65.0% | Washington | Washington by 4.3 | Oregon State | XXX |
| Sat | 11:00 PM | MWC video | UNLV at Hawaii | -10 | Hawaii by 20.0 (42.0 - 22.0) | 80.0% | Hawaii | Hawaii by 12.1 | Hawaii |
Week 13: FBS vs. FCS
Look at Army and BYU, trying to earn SEC entry...
(Holy projected margins...)
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | Eastern Kentucky at Florida | Florida by 33.0 (34.3 - 1.3) | 90.8% | Florida |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Fordham at Army | Fordham by 1.0 (34.3 - 33.2) | 57.2% | Fordham |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | Charleston S'ern at Georgia | Georgia by 66.8 (64.5 - -2.3) | 98.6% | Georgia |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | BYUtv | Savannah State at BYU | BYU by 74.9 (67.9 - -6.9) | 98.6% | BYU |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Western Carolina at Alabama | Alabama by 87.9 (78.5 - -9.4) | 98.6% | Alabama |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Samford at Auburn | Auburn by 64.0 (65.1 - 1.1) | 98.6% | Auburn |
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