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College football projections: Week 13 F/+ picks

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Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

I think it's pretty clear that NEW is not always better than OLD.

ATS Week 12 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 20-28-2 (42%) 303-321-14 (49%)
"OLD" Method 25-23-2 (52%) 296-283-13 (51%)

Doesn't look like OLD is going to recover from a worse-than-normal Week 1. Alas, it remains over 50%, which is all I need to see.

Straight Up Week 12 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 2-1 (67%) 27-30 (47%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 9-5 (64%) 95-64 (60%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 8-4 (67%) 124-40 (76%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 9-2 (82%) 142-30 (83%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 7-3 (70%) 122-10 (92%)

So the 80%+ teams have been winning at a lower rate than normal, which is a bit of a concern, but I was already going to be making some changes to the way probabilities are set up anyway. We'll see how the end of the string works out here.

Week 13: FBS vs FBS

Your weekly disclaimer: the margins are all that matter. The projected scores are for awful, i.e. for entertainment value only.

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 7:00 PM ESPN2 Massachusetts at Akron -8 Akron by 5.9 (32.1 - 26.2) 64.0% Massachusetts Akron by 3.8 Massachusetts
Tue 8:00 PM ESPNU Northern Illinois at Ohio 1 Northern Illinois by 12.7 (39.6 - 26.9) 72.3% Northern Illinois Northern Illinois by 7.2 Northern Illinois
Wed 8:00 PM ESPN2 Bowling Green at Toledo -7 Toledo by 28.9 (63.6 - 34.7) 86.6% Toledo Toledo by 16.6 Toledo
Thu 7:00 PM FS1 Kansas State at West Virginia -2.5 West Virginia by 2.7 (32.5 - 29.7) 59.4% West Virginia West Virginia by 1.9 Kansas State XXX
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN North Carolina at Duke -6 Duke by 34.9 (53.4 - 18.5) 91.8% Duke Duke by 21.1 Duke
Thu 9:30 PM ESPNU Arkansas State at Texas State 6.5 Arkansas State by 15.3 (41.1 - 25.9) 73.9% Arkansas State Arkansas State by 8.0 Arkansas State
Fri 1:00 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Buffalo -7 Buffalo by 2.9 (25.3 - 22.4) 60.3% Kent State Buffalo by 2.2 Kent State
Fri 8:00 PM FS1 UTEP at Rice -7.5 Rice by 6.2 (37.0 - 30.8) 64.5% UTEP Rice by 4.1 UTEP
Fri 9:30 PM CBSSN Air Force at San Diego State -5.5 Air Force by 16.6 (27.5 - 10.9) 76.7% Air Force Air Force by 9.5 Air Force
Fri 9:30 PM ESPN2 San Jose State at Utah State -13 Utah State by 30.1 (32.5 - 2.5) 89.6% Utah State Utah State by 19.1 Utah State
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Indiana at Ohio State -34.5 Ohio State by 69.1 (69.2 - 0.1) 98.6% Ohio State Ohio State by 41.1 Ohio State
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Kansas at Oklahoma -25 Oklahoma by 61.6 (58.5 - -3.2) 98.6% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 37.1 Oklahoma
Sat 12:00 PM $CSLive Marshall at UAB -20 Marshall by 40.8 (50.1 - 9.4) 94.4% Marshall Marshall by 23.4 Marshall
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Minnesota at Nebraska -10 Nebraska by 13.5 (32.1 - 18.6) 73.8% Nebraska Nebraska by 8.6 Minnesota XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Northwestern at Purdue 0 Purdue by 1.1 (25.5 - 24.4) 57.3% Purdue Purdue by 1.0 Purdue
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Penn State at Illinois 6.5 Penn State by 20.9 (26.3 - 5.4) 82.6% Penn State Penn State by 13.2 Penn State
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Rutgers at Michigan State -22.5 Michigan State by 31.1 (46.9 - 15.8) 90.2% Michigan State Michigan State by 19.5 Rutgers XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News SMU at Central Florida -28 Central Florida by 50.5 (44.6 - -5.9) 98.5% Central Florida Central Florida by 33.3 Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at South Carolina -25.5 South Carolina by 32.0 (54.6 - 22.5) 90.1% South Carolina South Carolina by 19.5 South Alabama XXX
Sat 12:00 PM FSN affiliates UTSA at Western Kentucky -9 Western Kentucky by 9.9 (31.8 - 21.9) 69.8% Western Kentucky Western Kentucky by 6.5 UTSA XXX
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia Tech at Wake Forest 15 Virginia Tech by 32.9 (18.9 - -6.7) 92.7% Virginia Tech Virginia Tech by 21.5 Virginia Tech
Sat 1:00 PM FCS Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion 11.5 Louisiana Tech by 20.9 (44.5 - 23.6) 83.3% Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech by 13.6 Louisiana Tech
Sat 1:00 PM Pac-12 Washington State at Arizona State -16 Arizona State by 45.5 (68.9 - 30.5) 95.5% Arizona State Arizona State by 25.6 Arizona State
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Central Michigan -1 Western Michigan by 11.8 (34.5 - 22.7) 72.5% Western Michigan Western Michigan by 7.3 Western Michigan
Sat 1:30 PM RSRM New Mexico at Colorado State -21.5 Colorado State by 35.9 (56.9 - 21.0) 94.5% Colorado State Colorado State by 24.2 Colorado State
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Ball State -17 Ball State by 37.4 (39.4 - 2.0) 94.7% Ball State Ball State by 24.4 Ball State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Arizona at Utah -4 Utah by 7.2 (26.3 - 19.1) 64.9% Utah Utah by 4.3 Utah
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Boston College at Florida State -19 Florida State by 25.9 (46.5 - 20.7) 86.8% Florida State Florida State by 16.7 Boston College XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ASN Florida International at North Texas -2.5 Florida International by 10.1 (23.2 - 13.1) 70.3% Florida International Florida International by 6.2 Florida International
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Clemson -40.5 Clemson by 76.1 (72.7 - -3.4) 98.6% Clemson Clemson by 45.3 Clemson
Sat 3:30 PM NBC Louisville at Notre Dame -3 Louisville by 0.2 (22.3 - 22.1) 55.9% Louisville Notre Dame by 0.2 Louisville
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Maryland at Michigan -5 Michigan by 0.2 (15.2 - 15.0) 56.0% Maryland Michigan by 0.4 Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Ole Miss at Arkansas 3.5 Ole Miss by 20.4 (34.6 - 14.3) 81.0% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 12.1 Ole Miss
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Syracuse at Pittsburgh -7.5 Pittsburgh by 19.4 (42.1 - 22.7) 80.3% Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 12.3 Pittsburgh
Sat 3:30 PM FSN affiliates Texas Tech at Iowa State -1 Iowa State by 2.8 (47.8 - 45.0) 59.8% Iowa State Iowa State by 2.0 Iowa State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Tulane at East Carolina -17.5 East Carolina by 29.4 (45.3 - 15.8) 88.0% East Carolina East Carolina by 17.7 East Carolina
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Tulsa at Houston -20 Houston by 33.0 (48.4 - 15.4) 89.3% Houston Houston by 18.8 Tulsa XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Wisconsin at Iowa 10 Wisconsin by 25.9 (34.2 - 8.2) 86.0% Wisconsin Wisconsin by 15.6 Wisconsin
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News South Florida at Memphis -18.5 Memphis by 46.8 (42.6 - -4.2) 98.0% Memphis Memphis by 30.6 Memphis
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Stanford at California 5.5 Stanford by 5.5 (27.3 - 21.8) 63.6% California Stanford by 3.1 California
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at New Mexico State 8 UL-Monroe by 5.2 (29.2 - 24.1) 62.9% New Mexico State UL-Monroe by 2.7 New Mexico State
Sat 4:30 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Oregon -32.5 Oregon by 68.0 (80.0 - 12.1) 98.6% Oregon Oregon by 37.2 Oregon
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at UL-Lafayette -10 UL-Lafayette by 27.3 (53.5 - 26.2) 86.7% UL-Lafayette UL-Lafayette by 16.7 UL-Lafayette
Sat 7:00 PM ASN Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee -7 Middle Tennessee by 16.2 (36.0 - 19.8) 77.1% Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee by 10.4 Middle Tennessee
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Miami-FL at Virginia 6 Miami-FL by 18.5 (30.4 - 12.0) 80.5% Miami-FL Miami-FL by 11.8 Miami-FL
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN Missouri at Tennessee -3 Tennessee by 3.7 (14.0 - 10.3) 61.2% Tennessee Tennessee by 2.6 Missouri XXX
Sat 7:30 PM Fox Oklahoma State at Baylor -28.5 Baylor by 61.4 (63.9 - 2.5) 98.5% Baylor Baylor by 33.1 Baylor
Sat 7:30 PM SECN Vanderbilt at Mississippi State -30.5 Mississippi State by 68.1 (60.9 - -7.1) 98.6% Mississippi State Mississippi State by 44.9 Mississippi State
Sat 8:00 PM CBSSN Cincinnati at Connecticut 9.5 Cincinnati by 14.0 (35.1 - 21.1) 76.0% Cincinnati Cincinnati by 9.2 Connecticut XXX
Sat 8:00 PM ABC USC at UCLA -3 UCLA by 8.0 (42.3 - 34.3) 66.2% UCLA UCLA by 4.8 UCLA
Sat 10:15 PM ESPN2 Boise State at Wyoming 12 Boise State by 36.1 (47.6 - 11.6) 92.7% Boise State Boise State by 21.4 Boise State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPNU Fresno State at Nevada -7.5 Nevada by 38.8 (60.3 - 21.5) 92.9% Nevada Nevada by 22.3 Nevada
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 Oregon State at Washington -6 Washington by 6.3 (28.5 - 22.1) 65.0% Washington Washington by 4.3 Oregon State XXX
Sat 11:00 PM MWC video UNLV at Hawaii -10 Hawaii by 20.0 (42.0 - 22.0) 80.0% Hawaii Hawaii by 12.1 Hawaii

Week 13: FBS vs. FCS

Look at Army and BYU, trying to earn SEC entry...

(Holy projected margins...)

Day Time (ET) TV Game Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Sat 12:00 PM SECN Eastern Kentucky at Florida Florida by 33.0 (34.3 - 1.3) 90.8% Florida
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Fordham at Army Fordham by 1.0 (34.3 - 33.2) 57.2% Fordham
Sat 12:00 PM SECN Charleston S'ern at Georgia Georgia by 66.8 (64.5 - -2.3) 98.6% Georgia
Sat 3:00 PM BYUtv Savannah State at BYU BYU by 74.9 (67.9 - -6.9) 98.6% BYU
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Western Carolina at Alabama Alabama by 87.9 (78.5 - -9.4) 98.6% Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Samford at Auburn Auburn by 64.0 (65.1 - 1.1) 98.6% Auburn