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Updated ACC projections: 'Noles have a 73% chance of winning the league

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According to the F/+ ratings, Florida State has about a 73% chance of winning the ACC title, beating either Duke (90% chance) or Georgia Tech (10%) in the championship game.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

I saved this one for last because there are almost no ifs whatsoever.

Odds of conference records
Atlantic F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Florida State (7-0, 10-0) 10 7.87 7.25 (+0.61)
Clemson (6-2, 7-3) 20 6-2 6.34 (-0.34)
Louisville (5-3, 7-3) 16 5-3 5-3
Boston College (3-3, 6-4) 34 4.03 4.03 (+0.00)
N.C. State (2-5, 6-5) 66 2.37 2.10 (+0.27)
Syracuse (1-5, 3-7) 72 1.31 1.29 (+0.02)
Wake Forest (0-6, 2-8) 90 0.09 0.42 (-0.32)
Coastal F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Georgia Tech (6-2, 9-2) 14 6-2 5.66 (+0.34)
Duke (4-2, 8-2) 25 5.90 6.63 (-0.73)
Miami (3-3, 6-4) 11 4.72 5.34 (-0.62)
North Carolina (3-3, 5-5) 67 3.72 2.98 (+0.73)
Virginia Tech (2-4, 5-5) 27 3.70 2.91 (+0.79)
Pittsburgh (2-4, 4-6) 48 2.88 3.61 (-0.73)
Virginia (2-4, 4-6) 40 2.42 2.43 (-0.01)

Atlantic

Overall Odds: FSU 100%.

Coastal

I thank Duke for losing to Virginia Tech and adding at least a little bit of drama to the proceedings. Now, with a damn good Georgia Tech (that Duke beat) in the clubhouse at 6-2, the Blue Devils must win their final two games of the season to take their second straight Coastal crown.

Their final two opponents are, by the F/+ ratings, two of the three worst teams in the league. UNC is certainly a bit of a wildcard, having punched well over its weight on a couple of occasions this season. Still, Duke's heavily favored there, and it's not hard to see why.

Overall Odds: Duke 89.8%, Georgia Tech 10.2%

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 20-Nov-14 North Carolina Duke 8.2%
13 22-Nov-14 Boston College Florida State 13.2%
13 22-Nov-14 Miami Virginia 80.5%
13 22-Nov-14 Syracuse Pittsburgh 19.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Virginia Tech Wake Forest 92.7%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Virginia Virginia Tech 22.3%
14 29-Nov-14 NC State North Carolina 37.4%
14 29-Nov-14 Pittsburgh Miami 8.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Syracuse Boston College 10.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Wake Forest Duke 2.2%

Title Games and Title Odds

Here are the "Who wins?" odds for each possible title game:

Florida State vs. Duke: FSU 73.5%
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech: FSU 64.1% (because GT's quite good)

Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:

1. Florida State 73%

2. Duke 23%

3. Georgia Tech 4%