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Updated Big Ten projections: Ohio State has a 73% chance of winning the conference

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Win projections

Odds of conference records
West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Wisconsin (5-1, 8-2) 13 6.69 6.22 (+0.48)
Nebraska (4-2, 8-2) 23 5.52 6.08 (-0.56)
Minnesota (4-2, 7-3) 35 4.43 4.55 (-0.12)
Iowa (4-2, 7-3) 54 4.35 4.03 (+0.32)
Northwestern (2-4, 4-6) 64 3.25 3.10 (+0.15)
Purdue (1-5, 3-7) 69 2.23 2.30 (-0.07)
Illinois (1-5, 4-6) 89 1.34 1.71 (-0.37)
East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Ohio State (6-0, 9-1) 3 7.96 7.81 (+0.15)
Michigan State (5-1, 8-2) 22 6.61 6.32 (+0.29)
Maryland (3-3, 6-4) 46 4.17 4.66 (-0.49)
Michigan (3-3, 5-5) 55 3.58 3.42 (+0.16)
Penn State (2-4, 6-4) 43 3.13 3.10 +(0.03)
Rutgers (2-4, 6-4) 63 2.36 2.11 (+0.25)
Indiana (0-6, 3-7) 88 0.37 0.58 (-0.21)

West

Now THIS is some tidy scheduling. There are four teams still with a shot at the Big Ten West title, and they almost play a round robin these last two weeks: it's Minnesota at Nebraska and Wisconsin at Iowa this Saturday and Minnesota at Wisconsin and Nebraska at Iowa next weekend.

So that makes for some easy scenario-building. Four games means 16 possible results, and with a one-game lead on the field (and a tie-breaker advantage over Nebraska), Wisconsin wins in eight of them, including the six most likely.

Minnesota at Nebraska Wisconsin at Iowa Nebraska at Iowa Minnesota at Wisconsin Odds it happens Champ
Minnesota Wisconsin Nebraska Minnesota 3.1% Minnesota
Minnesota Wisconsin Nebraska Wisconsin 14.6% Wisconsin
Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Minnesota 0.9% Minnesota
Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Wisconsin 4.1% Wisconsin
Minnesota Iowa Nebraska Minnesota 0.5% Minnesota
Minnesota Iowa Nebraska Wisconsin 2.4% Wisconsin
Minnesota Iowa Iowa Minnesota 0.1% Minnesota
Minnesota Iowa Iowa Wisconsin 0.7% Iowa
Nebraska Wisconsin Nebraska Minnesota 8.6% Wisconsin
Nebraska Wisconsin Nebraska Wisconsin 40.9% Wisconsin
Nebraska Wisconsin Iowa Minnesota 2.4% Wisconsin
Nebraska Wisconsin Iowa Wisconsin 11.5% Wisconsin
Nebraska Iowa Nebraska Minnesota 1.4% Nebraska
Nebraska Iowa Nebraska Wisconsin 6.6% Wisconsin
Nebraska Iowa Iowa Minnesota 0.4% Iowa
Nebraska Iowa Iowa Wisconsin 1.9% Iowa

Nebraska and Minnesota kick off at noon ET, followed by Wiscy-Iowa at 3:30.

By the time Wisconsin and Iowa kick off, we'll be looking at one of these two sets of odds:

If Nebraska wins (73.8% chance): Wisconsin 95%, Iowa 3%, Nebraska 2%.
If Minnesota wins (26.2% chance): Wisconsin 80%, Minnesota 17%, Iowa 3%.

And then by Saturday night...

If Nebraska and Wisconsin win (63.5% chance): Wisconsin 100%
If Nebraska and Iowa win (10.3% chance): Wisconsin 64.5%, Iowa 22.0%, Nebraska 13.5%
If Minnesota and Wisconsin win (22.5% chance): Wisconsin 82.7%, Minnesota 17.3%
If Minnesota and Iowa win (3.7% chance): Wisconsin 64.5%, Iowa 18.2%, Minnesota 17.3%

Again, Wisconsin's the likely winner here. But here are your rooting interests...

If you're a Wisconsin fan: Go Huskers, Go Badgers
If you're a Nebraska fan: Go Huskers, Go Hawkeyes
If you're an Iowa fan: Go Huskers, Go Hawkeyes
If you're a Minnesota fan: Go Gophers!

Overall Odds: Wisconsin 91.1%, Minnesota 4.5%, Iowa 2.9%, Nebraska 1.4%.

East

Okay, fine, Michigan State still has a chance. If the Spartans beat Rutgers (90.2% chance) and Penn State (71.6%) and Ohio State loses to both Indiana (1.4%) and Michigan (2.4%), Sparty wins. There is a 0.02% chance of that at the moment. So yeah.

Overall Odds: Ohio State 99.98%, Michigan State 0.02%.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Indiana Ohio State 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Maryland Michigan 44.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Minnesota Nebraska 26.2%
13 22-Nov-14 Northwestern Purdue 42.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Penn State Illinois 82.6%
13 22-Nov-14 Rutgers Michigan State 9.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Wisconsin Iowa 86.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Nebraska Iowa 78.0%
14 29-Nov-14 Illinois Northwestern 16.7%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan Ohio State 2.4%
14 29-Nov-14 Michigan State Penn State 71.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Minnesota Wisconsin 17.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Purdue Indiana 64.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Rutgers Maryland 26.6%

Title Games and Title Odds

Here are the "Who wins?" odds for all possible title games. And by "possible," I mean "things with a greater than 0.02% chance of happening."

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Ohio State 71.3%
Ohio State vs. Minnesota: Ohio State 87.9%
Ohio State vs. Iowa: Ohio State 96.0%
Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Ohio State 80.7%

Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:

1. Ohio State 73%

2. Wisconsin 26%

3. Minnesota 0.5%

4. Nebraska 0.3%

5. Iowa 0.1%

6. Michigan State 0.02%

Still a chance, Sparty. Yep.