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Win projections
| West | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin (5-1, 8-2) | 13 | 6.69 | 6.22 (+0.48) |
| Nebraska (4-2, 8-2) | 23 | 5.52 | 6.08 (-0.56) |
| Minnesota (4-2, 7-3) | 35 | 4.43 | 4.55 (-0.12) |
| Iowa (4-2, 7-3) | 54 | 4.35 | 4.03 (+0.32) |
| Northwestern (2-4, 4-6) | 64 | 3.25 | 3.10 (+0.15) |
| Purdue (1-5, 3-7) | 69 | 2.23 | 2.30 (-0.07) |
| Illinois (1-5, 4-6) | 89 | 1.34 | 1.71 (-0.37) |
| East | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) |
| Ohio State (6-0, 9-1) | 3 | 7.96 | 7.81 (+0.15) |
| Michigan State (5-1, 8-2) | 22 | 6.61 | 6.32 (+0.29) |
| Maryland (3-3, 6-4) | 46 | 4.17 | 4.66 (-0.49) |
| Michigan (3-3, 5-5) | 55 | 3.58 | 3.42 (+0.16) |
| Penn State (2-4, 6-4) | 43 | 3.13 | 3.10 +(0.03) |
| Rutgers (2-4, 6-4) | 63 | 2.36 | 2.11 (+0.25) |
| Indiana (0-6, 3-7) | 88 | 0.37 | 0.58 (-0.21) |
West
Now THIS is some tidy scheduling. There are four teams still with a shot at the Big Ten West title, and they almost play a round robin these last two weeks: it's Minnesota at Nebraska and Wisconsin at Iowa this Saturday and Minnesota at Wisconsin and Nebraska at Iowa next weekend.
So that makes for some easy scenario-building. Four games means 16 possible results, and with a one-game lead on the field (and a tie-breaker advantage over Nebraska), Wisconsin wins in eight of them, including the six most likely.
| Minnesota at Nebraska | Wisconsin at Iowa | Nebraska at Iowa | Minnesota at Wisconsin | Odds it happens | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | Wisconsin | Nebraska | Minnesota | 3.1% | Minnesota |
| Minnesota | Wisconsin | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 14.6% | Wisconsin |
| Minnesota | Wisconsin | Iowa | Minnesota | 0.9% | Minnesota |
| Minnesota | Wisconsin | Iowa | Wisconsin | 4.1% | Wisconsin |
| Minnesota | Iowa | Nebraska | Minnesota | 0.5% | Minnesota |
| Minnesota | Iowa | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 2.4% | Wisconsin |
| Minnesota | Iowa | Iowa | Minnesota | 0.1% | Minnesota |
| Minnesota | Iowa | Iowa | Wisconsin | 0.7% | Iowa |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin | Nebraska | Minnesota | 8.6% | Wisconsin |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 40.9% | Wisconsin |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin | Iowa | Minnesota | 2.4% | Wisconsin |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin | Iowa | Wisconsin | 11.5% | Wisconsin |
| Nebraska | Iowa | Nebraska | Minnesota | 1.4% | Nebraska |
| Nebraska | Iowa | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 6.6% | Wisconsin |
| Nebraska | Iowa | Iowa | Minnesota | 0.4% | Iowa |
| Nebraska | Iowa | Iowa | Wisconsin | 1.9% | Iowa |
Nebraska and Minnesota kick off at noon ET, followed by Wiscy-Iowa at 3:30.
By the time Wisconsin and Iowa kick off, we'll be looking at one of these two sets of odds:
If Nebraska wins (73.8% chance): Wisconsin 95%, Iowa 3%, Nebraska 2%.
If Minnesota wins (26.2% chance): Wisconsin 80%, Minnesota 17%, Iowa 3%.
And then by Saturday night...
If Nebraska and Wisconsin win (63.5% chance): Wisconsin 100%
If Nebraska and Iowa win (10.3% chance): Wisconsin 64.5%, Iowa 22.0%, Nebraska 13.5%
If Minnesota and Wisconsin win (22.5% chance): Wisconsin 82.7%, Minnesota 17.3%
If Minnesota and Iowa win (3.7% chance): Wisconsin 64.5%, Iowa 18.2%, Minnesota 17.3%
Again, Wisconsin's the likely winner here. But here are your rooting interests...
If you're a Wisconsin fan: Go Huskers, Go Badgers
If you're a Nebraska fan: Go Huskers, Go Hawkeyes
If you're an Iowa fan: Go Huskers, Go Hawkeyes
If you're a Minnesota fan: Go Gophers!
Overall Odds: Wisconsin 91.1%, Minnesota 4.5%, Iowa 2.9%, Nebraska 1.4%.
East
Okay, fine, Michigan State still has a chance. If the Spartans beat Rutgers (90.2% chance) and Penn State (71.6%) and Ohio State loses to both Indiana (1.4%) and Michigan (2.4%), Sparty wins. There is a 0.02% chance of that at the moment. So yeah.
Overall Odds: Ohio State 99.98%, Michigan State 0.02%.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Indiana | Ohio State | 1.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Maryland | Michigan | 44.0% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Nebraska | 26.2% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Northwestern | Purdue | 42.7% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Penn State | Illinois | 82.6% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Michigan State | 9.8% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Wisconsin | Iowa | 86.0% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Nebraska | Iowa | 78.0% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Illinois | Northwestern | 16.7% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan | Ohio State | 2.4% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan State | Penn State | 71.6% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Wisconsin | 17.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Purdue | Indiana | 64.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Maryland | 26.6% |
Title Games and Title Odds
Here are the "Who wins?" odds for all possible title games. And by "possible," I mean "things with a greater than 0.02% chance of happening."
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Ohio State 71.3%
Ohio State vs. Minnesota: Ohio State 87.9%
Ohio State vs. Iowa: Ohio State 96.0%
Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Ohio State 80.7%
Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:
1. Ohio State 73%
2. Wisconsin 26%
3. Minnesota 0.5%
4. Nebraska 0.3%
5. Iowa 0.1%
6. Michigan State 0.02%
Still a chance, Sparty. Yep.
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