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Updated Pac-12 projections: It's Oregon's to lose, but all eyes are on the South

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Oregon has an 80% chance to win the Pac-12 at this point, but all eyes are on the South for a set of games that might all but determine the division winner.

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

Odds of conference records
North F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Oregon (6-1, 9-1) 2 7.95 7.96 (-0.01)
Stanford (3-4, 5-5) 33 3.87 4.48 (-0.62)
California (3-5, 5-5) 47 3.36 3.49 (-0.13)
Washington (2-5, 6-5) 62 3.26 3.45 (-0.19)
Washington State (2-5, 3-7) 74 2.45 2.44 (+0.01)
Oregon State (2-5, 5-5) 65 2.38 1.39 (+0.99)
South F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Arizona State (5-2, 8-2) 19 6.58 7.56 (-0.98)
UCLA (5-2, 8-2) 17 6.44 6.47 (-0.03)
USC (6-2, 7-3) 21 6.34 6.17 (+0.17)
Arizona (5-2, 8-2) 32 5.72 5.57 (+0.15)
Utah (4-3, 7-3) 29 5.48 4.84 (+0.65)
Colorado (0-7, 2-8) 73 0.19 0.19 (-0.00)

North

This race is over, so I'll mention this instead: I can't wait to write Stanford's preview next offseason. By this point in a given year, I end up with a mental list of "What exactly happened there (good or bad)?" teams, and I don't end up with enough time to dive into their improvement/regression until their name comes up on the preview list. Stanford is at the top of that list. A lot of their problems can simply be summarized by "their offense stinks, and their inability to close drives has killed them in close games." But I'll go a little bit further than that when I get the chance.

Meanwhile, this is an enormous Big Game this weekend, isn't it? Both Stanford and Cal are 5-5 and in need of one more win for bowl eligibility, and in Week 14 Stanford heads to UCLA while Cal welcomes a still-decent BYU to Berkeley. Only the Big Game winner might get to six wins; granted, that's been true the last couple of seasons, too, but in a much different context.

Overall odds: Oregon 100%.

South

Fans of chaos have to love Oregon State right about now. The Beavers' win over Arizona State has created an arrangement where five different Pac-12 South teams now have definable shots at the division title. And while this is a bye week of sorts in the national title race, it's an enormous Saturday for this division: Arizona State hosts Washington State at 1 p.m. ET (????), Utah hosts Arizona at 3:30 p.m., and USC and UCLA kick off at 8:00 p.m.

Let's walk through where the odds currently stand and how they'll take shape throughout the course of the day.

Starting point: UCLA 52.3%, ASU 28.6%, USC 14.0%, Utah 3.1%, Arizona 2.0%.

If ASU beats Wazzu (95.5% chance): UCLA 51.9%, ASU 29.9%, USC 13.1%, Utah 3.1%, Arizona 2.0%
If Wazzu upsets ASU (4.5%): UCLA 61.0%, USC 33.8%, Utah 3.1%, Arizona 2.0%

Another ASU loss would be huge for USC, which would all but be in the driver's seat here if it hadn't played the worst Hail Mary defense of all time and lost to Sun Devils because of it. Utah and ASU both hold tie-breaker advantages over USC, but Utah probably doesn't matter unless ASU loses.

Let's move on to Game No. 2:

If ASU wins and Utah beats Arizona (62.0%): UCLA 52.2%, ASU 29.9%, USC 13.1%, Utah 4.8%
If ASU wins and Arizona beats Utah (33.5%): UCLA 51.2%, ASU 29.9%, USC 13.1%, Arizona 5.8%
If Wazzu wins and Utah beats Arizona (2.9%): UCLA 61.4%, USC 33.8%, Utah 4.8%
If Wazzu wins and Arizona beats Utah (1.6%): UCLA 60.4%, USC 33.8%, Arizona 5.8%

Really, Utah-Arizona only matters to Utah and Arizona right now. The ASU-Wazzu game will determine if we have a wide-open, two- to three-team race (primarily) or whether ASU's eliminated and it's mostly down to UCLA-USC.

The nightcap is what will hold the most impact.

If ASU wins, Utah wins, and UCLA beats USC (41.0%): UCLA 78.9%, ASU 13.9%, Utah 7.3%
If ASU wins, Arizona wins, and UCLA beats USC (22.2%): UCLA 77.4%, ASU 13.9%, Arizona 8.7%
If ASU wins, Utah wins, and USC beats UCLA (21.0%): ASU 61.4%, USC 38.6%
If ASU wins, Arizona wins, and USC beats UCLA (11.3%): ASU 61.4%, USC 38.6%
If Wazzu wins, Utah wins, and UCLA beats USC (1.9%): UCLA 92.7%, Utah 7.3%
If Wazzu wins, Utah wins, and USC beats UCLA (1.0%): USC 100%!
If Wazzu wins, Arizona wins, and UCLA beats USC (1.1%): UCLA 91.3%, Arizona 8.7%
If Wazzu wins, Arizona wins, and USC beats UCLA (0.5%): USC 100%!

That's a lot of info there, so let's simply...

If you're a UCLA fan: Go Wazzu, Go Utes, GO BRUINS.
If you're an ASU fan: Go Devils, Go Trojans.
If you're a USC fan: Go Wazzu, Go Trojans.
If you're a Utah fan: Go Utes, GO BRUINS.
If you're an Arizona fan: Go 'Zona, GO BRUINS.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Arizona Utah 35.1%
13 22-Nov-14 Colorado Oregon 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oregon State Washington 35.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Stanford California 63.6%
13 22-Nov-14 USC UCLA 33.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Washington State Arizona State 4.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Arizona State Arizona 61.4%
14 28-Nov-14 Stanford UCLA 22.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Oregon Oregon State 96.1%
14 29-Nov-14 Utah Colorado 83.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Washington Washington State 60.1%

Title Games and Title Odds

Here are the "who wins?" odds for all possible title games:

Oregon vs. UCLA: Oregon 78.4%
Oregon vs. Arizona State: Oregon 79.6%
Oregon vs. USC: Oregon 80.6%
Oregon vs. Utah: Oregon 86.8%
Oregon vs. Arizona: Oregon 87.7%

Combine that all with the division odds above, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:

1. Oregon 80%

2. UCLA 11%

3. Arizona State 6%

4. USC 3%

5. Utah 0.4%

6. Arizona 0.2%

Still a chance, Utes and 'Cats.