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Updated SEC projections: Alabama has a 60% chance of winning the conference

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Win projections

Poor Missouri wins in College Station and watches its East odds crumble from 46% to 22% because the one thing that couldn't happen (UGA beating Auburn) did. So now Missouri has to win two more tossup games to win the division. Certainly possible, not probable.

Odds of conference records
East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Georgia (6-2, 8-2) 8 6-2 5.34 (+0.66)
Missouri (5-1, 8-2) 37 5.97 5.66 (+0.31)
Florida (4-4, 5-4) 42 4.00 4.72 (-0.72)
Tennessee (2-4, 5-5) 38 3.53 3.38 (+0.15)
South Carolina (3-5, 5-5) 52 3-5 2.28 (+0.72)
Kentucky (2-6, 5-6) 79 2-6 2.13 (-0.13)
Vanderbilt (0-6, 3-7) 108 0.09 0.10 (-0.01)
West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change)
Alabama (6-1, 9-1) 1 6.77 6.37 (+0.40)
Mississippi State (5-1, 8-1) 5 6.30 6.63 (-0.34)
Ole Miss (4-2, 8-2) 4 5.50 5.54 (-0.04)
Auburn (4-3, 7-3) 7 4.23 4.98 (-0.75)
LSU (3-4, 7-4) 15 3.82 4.66 (-0.84)
Texas A&M (3-4, 7-4) 50 3.18 3.53 (-0.35)
Arkansas (1-5, 5-5) 30 1.61 0.68 (+0.93)

East

At least the scenarios are pretty clean at this point, right? Georgia is in the clubhouse at 6-2 and owns the tie-breaker with its win over Missouri. So Mizzou has to win at Tennessee (probability: 39%) and Arkansas (57%) to stay ahead. Missouri goes 1-1 or 0-2, and Georgia goes to Atlanta.

Overall odds: Georgia 77.9%, Missouri 22.1%.

West

The West still has potential for a mess, but it will require a reeling Auburn team to win in Tuscaloosa next week. We've certainly learned not to rule out anything in that series, but odds still favor Alabama. The Tide win, and they're in.

There are three remaining games of consequence: Ole Miss at Arkansas in Week 13 and Auburn at Alabama and Mississippi State at Ole Miss in Week 14. The Rebels have what seems like a rather aggressive 81% chance of beating the Hogs in Fayetteville, but while that may seem high, here's your reminder that for the season as a whole, Ole MIss has been one of the four best teams in the country this year. Yes, Arkansas beat an LSU team that beat Ole Miss, but odds do not care specifically about that, but about all of the games that have happened.

Still, let's break out the potential scenarios based on if Ole Miss or Arkansas wins on Saturday.

If Ole Miss beats Arkansas (81.0%)...

  • Alabama beats Auburn (76.1%): Alabama is the West champion.
  • Auburn beats Alabama (23.9%) and Ole Miss beats Mississippi State (68.1%): Ole Miss is the West champion.
  • Auburn beats Alabama (23.9%) and Mississippi State beats Ole MIss (31.9%): Mississippi State is the West champion.

If Arkansas beats Ole Miss (19.0%)...

  • Alabama beats Auburn (76.1%): Alabama is the West champion.
  • Auburn beats Alabama (23.9%) and Ole Miss beats Mississippi State (68.1%): Alabama is the West champion.
  • Auburn beats Alabama (23.9%) and Mississippi State beats Ole MIss (31.9%): Mississippi State is the West champion.

Overall odds: Alabama 79.2%, Ole Miss 13.2%, Mississippi State 7.6%.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Missouri Tennessee 38.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Ole Miss Arkansas 81.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Vanderbilt Mississippi State 1.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 LSU Texas A&M 82.1%
14 28-Nov-14 Arkansas Missouri 43.1%
14 29-Nov-14 Auburn Alabama 23.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Mississippi State Ole Miss 31.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Tennessee Vanderbilt 92.2%

Title Games and Title Odds

So if we have title odds for each division, that means we have odds for all possible title game scenarios.

Missouri Georgia
Alabama 18% (down 3%) 62% (up 45%)
Ole Miss 3% (up 1%) 10% (up 8%)
Mississippi State 2% (down 16%) 6% (down 9%)

And here are the odds for all possible title games:

Alabama vs. Georgia: Alabama 70.7%
Alabama vs. Missouri: Alabama 92.5%

Ole Miss vs. Georgia: Ole Miss 63.9%
Ole Miss vs. Missouri: Ole Miss 89.2%

Mississippi State vs. Georgia: MSU 58.7%
Mississippi State vs. Missouri: 86.4%

Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:

1. Alabama 60% (last week: 40%)

2. Georgia 24% (last week: 10%)

3. Ole Miss 9% (last week: 4%)

4. Mississippi State 5% (last week: 33%)

5. Missouri 2% (last week: 4%)

Proof that the journey is more fun than the destination: this has been a silly year, with major disappointments (South Carolina) and great stories/surprises (both Mississippi schools), and as we head toward Championship Week, we're looking pretty clearly at an Alabama-Georgia title game, which is what a hell of a lot of people picked from the start. (I chose Bama-SC, but you get my point.)

Missouri and Auburn still hold some crazy cards, and as South Carolina can attest from last year, waiting on Missouri to lose so you can win the East isn't the most guaranteed proposition in the world. Still, it's an almost two-in-three chance that it's Bama-Georgia. And from there, it's a better than two-in-three chance that Bama will win.