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Arizona 27, Washington 26
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 80 | 93 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.1 | 26.8 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 15 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.67 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.3% | 71.0% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.439 | 0.491 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona | Washington | |
| Total | 22.9 | 30.4 | |
| Rushing | 11.5 | 15.3 | |
| Passing | 11.4 | 15.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 33.8% | 41.9% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 34.2% | 36.1% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 33.3% | 53.1% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 36.7% | 51.5% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 29.0% | 18.5% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.82 | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.87 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.80 | 1.74 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Arizona | Washington | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.97 | 1.88 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Arizona | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 10.5 | 13.4 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Arizona +2.33 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Washington +2.33 | |
| TO Points Margin | Arizona +2.9 points | |
| Situational | Arizona | Washington |
| Q1 S&P | 0.473 | 0.584 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.479 | 0.472 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.342 | 0.538 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.437 | 0.264 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.434 | 0.496 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.495 | 0.506 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.262 | 0.512 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Washington by 4.6 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona by 1 | ||
This game was almost as confusing to keep tabs on as the Northwestern-Notre Dame game was. Washington was up 17-7 with five minutes left in the first half, and I flipped away from it, only to see the Huskies were trailing at halftime. Then they surged back to take the lead in the third quarter, only to lose a fumble while running out the clock with 1:25 left and watch Arizona kick a field goal at the buzzer. Ouch.
Because they went 4-0 in non-conference play, the Huskies will be bowl eligible this year. But it's been a frustrating month: lose at home to Stanford (which isn't as forgivable as it would have been other recent years), whip California, lose by a combined 39 to Oregon and Arizona State, handle Colorado pretty easily on the road, hang tight and lose to UCLA, then figure out two different ways to blow the game against Arizona. There has been a surprising (to me) amount of growing pains in Chris Petersen's first season.
Meanwhile, Arizona's last-second win means the Wildcats are still in the conversation for the Pac-12 South title. Tomorrow's Pac-12 projections post is going to be fascinating.
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