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Study Hall: Arizona 27, Washington 26

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Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona 27, Washington 26

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona Washington Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 80 93
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 31.1 26.8 29.9
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
7 7
Points Per Opportunity 3.86 3.86 4.67
Leverage Rate** 61.3% 71.0% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.439 0.491 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona Washington
Total 22.9 30.4
Rushing 11.5 15.3
Passing 11.4 15.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona Washington Nat'l Avg
All (close) 33.8% 41.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 34.2% 36.1% 43.4%
Passing (close) 33.3% 53.1% 40.2%
Standard Downs 36.7% 51.5% 47.1%
Passing Downs 29.0% 18.5% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona Washington Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.85 0.78 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.88 0.70 0.74
Passing (close) 0.82 0.89 0.98
Standard Downs 0.87 0.64 0.77
Passing Downs 0.80 1.74 1.14
Line Stats Arizona Washington Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.97 1.88 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.6% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 10.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Arizona Washington
Turnovers 3 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 10.5 13.4
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Arizona +2.33
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Washington +2.33
TO Points Margin Arizona +2.9 points
Situational Arizona Washington
Q1 S&P 0.473 0.584
Q2 S&P 0.479 0.472
Q3 S&P 0.342 0.538
Q4 S&P 0.437 0.264
1st Down S&P 0.434 0.496
2nd Down S&P 0.495 0.506
3rd Down S&P 0.262 0.512
Projected Scoring Margin: Washington by 4.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona by 1

This game was almost as confusing to keep tabs on as the Northwestern-Notre Dame game was. Washington was up 17-7 with five minutes left in the first half, and I flipped away from it, only to see the Huskies were trailing at halftime. Then they surged back to take the lead in the third quarter, only to lose a fumble while running out the clock with 1:25 left and watch Arizona kick a field goal at the buzzer. Ouch.

Because they went 4-0 in non-conference play, the Huskies will be bowl eligible this year. But it's been a frustrating month: lose at home to Stanford (which isn't as forgivable as it would have been other recent years), whip California, lose by a combined 39 to Oregon and Arizona State, handle Colorado pretty easily on the road, hang tight and lose to UCLA, then figure out two different ways to blow the game against Arizona. There has been a surprising (to me) amount of growing pains in Chris Petersen's first season.

Meanwhile, Arizona's last-second win means the Wildcats are still in the conversation for the Pac-12 South title. Tomorrow's Pac-12 projections post is going to be fascinating.