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Virginia Tech 17, Duke 16
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 82 | 73 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 36.4 | 31.7 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 14 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.00 | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.0% | 63.0% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.411 | 0.406 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Duke | Virginia Tech | |
| Total | 18.5 | 15.7 | |
| Rushing | 11.0 | 7.5 | |
| Passing | 7.5 | 8.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 35.4% | 35.6% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 40.5% | 41.9% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 31.1% | 26.7% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 38.0% | 47.8% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 31.3% | 14.8% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.73 | 0.42 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.54 | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.59 | 0.37 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.73 | 1.90 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.95 | 3.23 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 12.5% | 31.3% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Duke | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 16.6 | 3.9 |
| Turnover Margin | Virginia Tech +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Virginia Tech +0.95 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Virginia Tech +1.05 | |
| TO Points Margin | Virginia Tech +12.7 points | |
| Situational | Duke | Virginia Tech |
| Q1 S&P | 0.582 | 0.362 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.260 | 0.494 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.381 | 0.091 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.301 | 0.482 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.412 | 0.407 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.461 | 0.519 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.327 | 0.297 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 9.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 1 | ||
Virginia Tech's defense was able to render Duke inefficient and ineffective, but because of the Hokies' own offensive troubles and a bit of a field position disadvantage, Duke was still able to create eight scoring opportunities to Virginia Tech's three. And VT scored more in its three. That's ... not supposed to happen.
Simply because they're probably going to beat UNC and Wake Forest (and because they beat Georgia Tech, with whom they'll be tied if they win out), the Blue Devils are still the favorites in the ACC Coastal. But Saturday wiped out all margin for error.