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Study Hall: Virginia Tech 17, Duke 16

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Virginia Tech 17, Duke 16

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 82 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 36.4 31.7 29.9
Possessions 14 16
Scoring Opportunities*
8 3
Points Per Opportunity 2.00 5.67 4.67
Leverage Rate** 61.0% 63.0% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.411 0.406 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Virginia Tech
Total 18.5 15.7
Rushing 11.0 7.5
Passing 7.5 8.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.4% 35.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 40.5% 41.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 31.1% 26.7% 40.2%
Standard Downs 38.0% 47.8% 47.1%
Passing Downs 31.3% 14.8% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.64 0.60 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.73 0.42 0.74
Passing (close) 0.54 1.03 0.98
Standard Downs 0.59 0.37 0.77
Passing Downs 0.73 1.90 1.14
Line Stats Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.95 3.23 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 7.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 31.3% 7.5%
Turnovers Duke Virginia Tech
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 16.6 3.9
Turnover Margin Virginia Tech +2
Exp. TO Margin Virginia Tech +0.95
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Virginia Tech +1.05
TO Points Margin Virginia Tech +12.7 points
Situational Duke Virginia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.582 0.362
Q2 S&P 0.260 0.494
Q3 S&P 0.381 0.091
Q4 S&P 0.301 0.482
1st Down S&P 0.412 0.407
2nd Down S&P 0.461 0.519
3rd Down S&P 0.327 0.297
Projected Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 9.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Virginia Tech by 1

Virginia Tech's defense was able to render Duke inefficient and ineffective, but because of the Hokies' own offensive troubles and a bit of a field position disadvantage, Duke was still able to create eight scoring opportunities to Virginia Tech's three. And VT scored more in its three. That's ... not supposed to happen.

Simply because they're probably going to beat UNC and Wake Forest (and because they beat Georgia Tech, with whom they'll be tied if they win out), the Blue Devils are still the favorites in the ACC Coastal. But Saturday wiped out all margin for error.