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Study Hall: Utah 20, Stanford 17

Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

From Matt Mills:

Utah 20, Stanford 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Stanford Utah Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 60
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 26.4 35.8 29.9
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
4 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.25 4.20 4.67
Leverage Rate** 66.7% 58.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.440 0.430 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Stanford Utah
Total 15.0 16.8
Rushing 9.4 5.5
Passing 5.6 11.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Stanford Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.0% 31.7% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 51.4% 25.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 31.3% 36.4% 40.2%
Standard Downs 52.2% 40.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 21.7% 20.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Stanford Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.52 0.88 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.50 0.79 0.74
Passing (close) 0.56 0.94 0.98
Standard Downs 0.44 0.93 0.77
Passing Downs 0.92 0.74 1.14
Line Stats Stanford Utah Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.14 2.44 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 16.7% 16.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.1% 13.3% 7.5%
Turnovers Stanford Utah
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.8 0.0
Turnover Margin Utah +1
Exp. TO Margin Utah +1.9
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Stanford +0.9
TO Points Margin Utah +4.8 points
Situational Stanford Utah
Q1 S&P 0.557 0.356
Q2 S&P 0.382 0.516
Q3 S&P 0.314 0.297
Q4 S&P 0.455 N/A
1st Down S&P 0.442 0.439
2nd Down S&P 0.469 0.391
3rd Down S&P 0.282 0.488
Projected Scoring Margin: Utah by 6.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 3

By my count, Stanford was 11-5 in one-possession games in 2012-13. The Cardinal try to shrink the game with tempo and bloody you up where the Cardinal are the only ones who know how to execute in the fourth quarter. But they're just blowing too damn many chances this year, and it's allowing opponents to hang around. The Cardinal are 1-3 this year in such games. Stanford allowed 4.25 points per scoring opportunity on Saturday, and that was actually good for them.

Stanford actually ran the ball quite well overall, but the other primary factor in this game was that the Cardinal couldn't pass (including sacks, Kevin Hogan's 31 pass attempts netted 72 yards), and Utah's havoc machine of a defense kept Stanford moving backwards and allowed the Utes to win the field position battle. Utah couldn't move the ball either but kept the field tilted and took the game to OT.