TCU 34, Kansas 30
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||28.1||31.2||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.00||3.38||4.67|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Kansas||TCU|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Kansas||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Kansas||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Kansas||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||1.70||2.77||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||12.5%||7.1%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||16.7%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||4.6||11.2|
|Turnover Margin||Kansas +2|
|Exp. TO Margin||TCU +0.66|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Kansas +2.66|
|TO Points Margin||Kansas +6.5 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.502||0.664|
|2nd Down S&P||0.487||0.380|
|3rd Down S&P||0.480||0.607|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Kansas by 4.7|
|Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 4|
Thankfully for TCU, special teams matter. A return touchdown (which doesn't factor into average field position) gave the Frogs an edge that they didn't otherwise have in what would have been an absolutely massive upset.
This certainly followed the upset script to a degree.
1. Kansas converted its scoring opportunities into points (and often prevented TCU from doing the same).
2. Kansas got some crazy bounces, not only scoring on a long tip-drill touchdown but, according to the fumbles and defensed passes, getting 2.7 turnovers' worth of turnovers luck, which equates to about 13-14 points.
Executing when you have to and getting lucky will keep you in a lot of football games, but KU's offense was just too inefficient, down for down, to keep up down the stretch. TCU needed that return touchdown to get and stay ahead, but offensive inefficiency -- a problem for most of the last half-decade in Lawrence -- was just as costly as Cameron Echols-Luper's return.