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Study Hall: TCU 34, Kansas 30

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John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

TCU 34, Kansas 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 74 72
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.1 31.2 29.9
Possessions 14 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 3.38 4.67
Leverage Rate** 58.1% 77.8% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.490 0.566 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas TCU
Total 26.8 28.6
Rushing 7.1 11.9
Passing 19.7 16.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.5% 51.4% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 32.4% 46.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 40.0% 55.0% 40.2%
Standard Downs 37.2% 55.4% 47.1%
Passing Downs 35.5% 37.5% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.99 0.77 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.65 0.79 0.74
Passing (close) 1.23 0.76 0.98
Standard Downs 0.83 0.68 0.77
Passing Downs 1.23 1.27 1.14
Line Stats Kansas TCU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.70 2.77 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 7.1% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 7.5%
Turnovers Kansas TCU
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.6 11.2
Turnover Margin Kansas +2
Exp. TO Margin TCU +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Kansas +2.66
TO Points Margin Kansas +6.5 points
Situational Kansas TCU
Q1 S&P 0.442 0.742
Q2 S&P 0.471 0.417
Q3 S&P 0.680 0.764
Q4 S&P 0.309 0.366
1st Down S&P 0.502 0.664
2nd Down S&P 0.487 0.380
3rd Down S&P 0.480 0.607
Projected Scoring Margin: Kansas by 4.7
Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 4

Thankfully for TCU, special teams matter. A return touchdown (which doesn't factor into average field position) gave the Frogs an edge that they didn't otherwise have in what would have been an absolutely massive upset.

This certainly followed the upset script to a degree.

1. Kansas converted its scoring opportunities into points (and often prevented TCU from doing the same).

2. Kansas got some crazy bounces, not only scoring on a long tip-drill touchdown but, according to the fumbles and defensed passes, getting 2.7 turnovers' worth of turnovers luck, which equates to about 13-14 points.

Executing when you have to and getting lucky will keep you in a lot of football games, but KU's offense was just too inefficient, down for down, to keep up down the stretch. TCU needed that return touchdown to get and stay ahead, but offensive inefficiency -- a problem for most of the last half-decade in Lawrence -- was just as costly as Cameron Echols-Luper's return.