South Carolina 23, Florida 20
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|Basics||Florida||South Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||39.1||29.5||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||4.00||4.80||4.67|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Florida||South Carolina|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Florida||South Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Florida||South Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Florida||South Carolina||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.98||2.44||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||20.0%||4.2%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||5.0%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||4.2||4.0|
|Exp. TO Margin||Florida +0.88|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||South Carolina +0.88|
|TO Points Margin||South Carolina +0.2 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.574||0.366|
|2nd Down S&P||0.350||0.462|
|3rd Down S&P||0.463||0.518|
|Projected Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 1.0|
|Actual Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 3|
A couple of things surprised me about this box:
1. South Carolina blocked a field goal, then blocked a punt, and STILL got completely trounced in the field position battle.
2. South Carolina was projected to have won (just via EqPts and Turnover points) despite the fact that the blocked kicks don't play a direct role in that formula.
Of course, it wouldn't have made sense for something about this game to make sense. The game was incredibly even overall, with similar success rates (UF had a slight advantage), minimal big plays, similar turnovers, and iffy offensive line play for both teams. The 'Cocks needed special teams help to tie the game up and send it to overtime, but they weren't dramatically outplayed before that point either.