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Study Hall: South Carolina 23, Florida 20

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

South Carolina 23, Florida 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 60 80
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 39.1 29.5 29.9
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
5 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 4.80 4.67
Leverage Rate** 73.3% 72.5% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.472 0.421 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida South Carolina
Total 17.4 18.1
Rushing 12.7 10.2
Passing 4.7 7.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.7% 37.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 47.9% 38.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 16.7% 36.4% 40.2%
Standard Downs 52.3% 41.4% 47.1%
Passing Downs 12.5% 27.3% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.69 0.60 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.55 0.73 0.74
Passing (close) 2.33 0.49 0.98
Standard Downs 0.52 0.60 0.77
Passing Downs 2.74 0.63 1.14
Line Stats Florida South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.98 2.44 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 20.0% 4.2% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Florida South Carolina
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.2 4.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Florida +0.88
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) South Carolina +0.88
TO Points Margin South Carolina +0.2 points
Situational Florida South Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.354 0.578
Q2 S&P 0.656 0.219
Q3 S&P 0.479 0.336
Q4 S&P 0.339 0.351
1st Down S&P 0.574 0.366
2nd Down S&P 0.350 0.462
3rd Down S&P 0.463 0.518
Projected Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 1.0
Actual Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 3

A couple of things surprised me about this box:

1. South Carolina blocked a field goal, then blocked a punt, and STILL got completely trounced in the field position battle.

2. South Carolina was projected to have won (just via EqPts and Turnover points) despite the fact that the blocked kicks don't play a direct role in that formula.

Of course, it wouldn't have made sense for something about this game to make sense. The game was incredibly even overall, with similar success rates (UF had a slight advantage), minimal big plays, similar turnovers, and iffy offensive line play for both teams. The 'Cocks needed special teams help to tie the game up and send it to overtime, but they weren't dramatically outplayed before that point either.