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Study Hall: Ohio State 31, Minnesota 24

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From Matt Mills:

Ohio State 31, Minnesota 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Minnesota Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 64 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 94.5%
Avg Starting FP 35.3 29.3 29.9
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 5.17 4.67
Leverage Rate** 59.4% 68.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.458 0.577 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Minnesota Ohio State
Total 19.5 29.4
Rushing 16.8 14.7
Passing 2.8 14.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Minnesota Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.6% 47.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 45.7% 51.4% 43.4%
Passing (close) 27.3% 42.3% 40.2%
Standard Downs 47.4% 48.8% 47.1%
Passing Downs 21.1% 45.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Minnesota Ohio State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.75 0.98 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.85 0.77 0.74
Passing (close) 0.46 1.34 0.98
Standard Downs 0.50 0.59 0.77
Passing Downs 1.88 1.88 1.14
Line Stats Minnesota Ohio State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.87 3.68 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.3% 6.3% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 30.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Minnesota Ohio State
Turnovers 2 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.7 16.4
Turnover Margin Minnesota +1
Exp. TO Margin Minnesota +0.58
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Minnesota +0.42
TO Points Margin Minnesota +7.8 points
Situational Minnesota Ohio State
Q1 S&P 0.350 0.718
Q2 S&P 0.612 0.488
Q3 S&P 0.331 0.672
Q4 S&P 0.523 0.464
1st Down S&P 0.418 0.423
2nd Down S&P 0.446 0.478
3rd Down S&P 0.552 0.950
Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 2.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 7

Minnesota certainly followed a few portions of the upset script. The Gophers won the turnover battle and leveraged field position in their favor, and it allowed them to make up for the fact that the Buckeyes were more efficient (especially in passing situations) and had bigger big plays.

Minnesota managed to create the same number of scoring opportunities as the Buckeyes (six), but while Ohio State scored four touchdowns and kicked a field goal to offset a fumble lost in the Gophers' end zone, Minnesota scored three touchdowns, kicked two field goals (missing one), and also lost a turnover. That doesn't feel like a huge difference, but it created the final scoring margin.