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Ohio State 31, Minnesota 24
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| Basics | Minnesota | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 64 | 63 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 94.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 35.3 | 29.3 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 5.17 | 4.67 |
| Leverage Rate** | 59.4% | 68.3% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.458 | 0.577 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Minnesota | Ohio State | |
| Total | 19.5 | 29.4 | |
| Rushing | 16.8 | 14.7 | |
| Passing | 2.8 | 14.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Minnesota | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.6% | 47.6% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 45.7% | 51.4% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 27.3% | 42.3% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 47.4% | 48.8% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 21.1% | 45.0% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Minnesota | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.75 | 0.98 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.46 | 1.34 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Minnesota | Ohio State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.87 | 3.68 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 30.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Minnesota | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 8.7 | 16.4 |
| Turnover Margin | Minnesota +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Minnesota +0.58 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Minnesota +0.42 | |
| TO Points Margin | Minnesota +7.8 points | |
| Situational | Minnesota | Ohio State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.350 | 0.718 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.612 | 0.488 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.331 | 0.672 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.523 | 0.464 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.418 | 0.423 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.446 | 0.478 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.552 | 0.950 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 2.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 7 | ||
Minnesota certainly followed a few portions of the upset script. The Gophers won the turnover battle and leveraged field position in their favor, and it allowed them to make up for the fact that the Buckeyes were more efficient (especially in passing situations) and had bigger big plays.
Minnesota managed to create the same number of scoring opportunities as the Buckeyes (six), but while Ohio State scored four touchdowns and kicked a field goal to offset a fumble lost in the Gophers' end zone, Minnesota scored three touchdowns, kicked two field goals (missing one), and also lost a turnover. That doesn't feel like a huge difference, but it created the final scoring margin.
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