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Northwestern 43, Notre Dame 40
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Northwestern | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 96 | 80 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.1 | 39.9 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 17 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
11 | 11 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.64 | 3.18 | 4.67 |
| Leverage Rate** | 72.9% | 66.3% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.509 | 0.545 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Northwestern | Notre Dame | |
| Total | 33.4 | 34.1 | |
| Rushing | 19.1 | 14.0 | |
| Passing | 14.2 | 20.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Northwestern | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 43.8% | 43.8% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 41.3% | 45.0% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 46.0% | 42.5% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 48.6% | 47.2% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 30.8% | 37.0% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Northwestern | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.79 | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.01 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.62 | 1.18 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Northwestern | Notre Dame | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.08 | 2.83 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 3.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.9% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Northwestern | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 4 | 4 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 27.0 | 27.7 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Notre Dame +0.81 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Northwestern +0.81 | |
| TO Points Margin | Northwestern +0.7 points | |
| Situational | Northwestern | Notre Dame |
| Q1 S&P | 0.550 | 0.750 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.599 | 0.532 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.375 | 0.533 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.578 | 0.494 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.557 | 0.577 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.445 | 0.487 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.516 | 0.563 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 0.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 3 | ||
Well THIS game certainly had some twists and turns. Every time I checked in on it on Saturday, the vibe had completely changed. Notre Dame went up 20-9 (thanks in part to a fumble return), and NU scored two quick touchdowns (thanks in part to an interception return) to take the lead. Notre Dame moved back ahead by eight and had the dagger in hand but fumbled into the Northwestern end zone. Given new life, NU immediately threw an interception and went back down 11, then had a field goal blocked with under nine minutes left.
And then Northwestern won anyway ... thanks in part to another late turnover.
This was one of many games defined and redefined by a glut of turnovers, but Northwestern was able to overcome field position disadvantages and smaller big plays by blowing fewer opportunities to score. I haven't decided whether this was one of the best or worst games of the year, but ... it was a game, and Northwestern won it.