Northwestern 43, Notre Dame 40
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|Basics||Northwestern||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||32.1||39.9||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.64||3.18||4.67|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Northwestern||Notre Dame|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Northwestern||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Northwestern||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Northwestern||Notre Dame||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.08||2.83||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||3.0%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||5.9%||0.0%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||27.0||27.7|
|Exp. TO Margin||Notre Dame +0.81|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Northwestern +0.81|
|TO Points Margin||Northwestern +0.7 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.557||0.577|
|2nd Down S&P||0.445||0.487|
|3rd Down S&P||0.516||0.563|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 0.0|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 3|
Well THIS game certainly had some twists and turns. Every time I checked in on it on Saturday, the vibe had completely changed. Notre Dame went up 20-9 (thanks in part to a fumble return), and NU scored two quick touchdowns (thanks in part to an interception return) to take the lead. Notre Dame moved back ahead by eight and had the dagger in hand but fumbled into the Northwestern end zone. Given new life, NU immediately threw an interception and went back down 11, then had a field goal blocked with under nine minutes left.
And then Northwestern won anyway ... thanks in part to another late turnover.
This was one of many games defined and redefined by a glut of turnovers, but Northwestern was able to overcome field position disadvantages and smaller big plays by blowing fewer opportunities to score. I haven't decided whether this was one of the best or worst games of the year, but ... it was a game, and Northwestern won it.