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Alabama 25, Mississippi State 20
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 63 | 88 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 34.5 | 21.8 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.43 | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| Leverage Rate** | 66.7% | 71.6% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.507 | 0.473 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Mississippi State | |
| Total | 23.0 | 24.2 | |
| Rushing | 9.7 | 7.2 | |
| Passing | 13.4 | 17.0 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 41.3% | 43.2% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 45.2% | 38.5% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 37.5% | 46.9% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 50.0% | 47.6% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 23.8% | 32.0% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.89 | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.69 | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.11 | 0.74 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.89 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.86 | 0.69 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.28 | 2.56 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.3% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 12.4 |
| Turnover Margin | Alabama +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Alabama +1.32 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Alabama +1.68 | |
| TO Points Margin | Alabama +12.4 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Mississippi State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.425 | 0.399 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.815 | 0.379 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.337 | 0.522 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.482 | 0.560 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.606 | 0.465 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.392 | 0.498 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.448 | 0.320 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 11.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 5 | ||
Early leads/deficits create confusing stats sometimes. Alabama scored on three of seven first-half possessions (pretty good against a top-10 defense) and got a safety to build a 19-0 lead. The Tide then ceased being effective offensively until MSU cut it to 19-13, then drove straight down and scored again when they needed to. So MSU ends up with more yards and EqPts and a whole lot more snaps, and it looks like Alabama a bit lucky to win because of turnovers ... only, your brain maybe doesn't look at it like that because Bama was up so big early on and it never felt like the game was actually in doubt.
Regardless, it would probably behoove Alabama to try to have an all-around great offense in quarters other than the second. The offense generated in Q2 was enough to win both the LSU and MSU games, but Q3 in both instances was pretty ugly, and Q4 was just good enough.