Arkansas 17, LSU 0
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||78.2%|
|Avg Starting FP||36.6||24.9||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.40||0.00||4.67|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Arkansas||LSU|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Arkansas||LSU||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Arkansas||LSU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Arkansas||LSU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.37||1.35||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||16.7%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||5.9%||14.3%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||0.0||4.7|
|Turnover Margin||Arkansas +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Arkansas +0.22|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Arkansas +0.78|
|TO Points Margin||Arkansas +4.7 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.427||0.360|
|2nd Down S&P||0.374||0.140|
|3rd Down S&P||0.626||0.399|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 15.2|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 17|
That Arkansas dominated the field position game, won the turnover battle, and destroyed LSU in terms of efficiency tells you who the more deserving team was here. But the Hogs gave LSU a chance by struggling to turn scoring opportunities into points. Four real scoring opportunities (not including an end-of-game situation in which Arkansas wasn't actually trying to score) resulted in two touchdowns, a field goal, and a punt. That's not awful, but it opened the door for LSU to catch up if the Tigers were able to turn their own three opportunities into touchdowns.
They turned those opportunities into two missed field goals and a turnover. Ballgame.