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Study Hall: Arkansas 17, LSU 0

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Arkansas 17, LSU 0

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 65 54
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 78.2%
Avg Starting FP 36.6 24.9 29.9
Possessions 10 9
Scoring Opportunities*
5 3
Points Per Opportunity 3.40 0.00 4.67
Leverage Rate** 52.3% 40.7% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.494 0.249 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas LSU
Total 16.0 5.5
Rushing 8.1 3.0
Passing 7.8 2.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 47.3% 21.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 46.4% 24.0% 43.4%
Passing (close) 48.2% 15.4% 40.2%
Standard Downs 52.9% 27.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 38.1% 12.5% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.58 0.40 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.55 0.41 0.74
Passing (close) 0.60 0.37 0.98
Standard Downs 0.54 0.38 0.77
Passing Downs 0.67 0.47 1.14
Line Stats Arkansas LSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.37 1.35 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 14.3% 7.5%
Turnovers Arkansas LSU
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 4.7
Turnover Margin Arkansas +1
Exp. TO Margin Arkansas +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arkansas +0.78
TO Points Margin Arkansas +4.7 points
Situational Arkansas LSU
Q1 S&P 0.471 0.191
Q2 S&P 0.492 0.351
Q3 S&P 0.337 0.198
Q4 S&P 0.541 0.415
1st Down S&P 0.427 0.360
2nd Down S&P 0.374 0.140
3rd Down S&P 0.626 0.399
Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 15.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 17

That Arkansas dominated the field position game, won the turnover battle, and destroyed LSU in terms of efficiency tells you who the more deserving team was here. But the Hogs gave LSU a chance by struggling to turn scoring opportunities into points. Four real scoring opportunities (not including an end-of-game situation in which Arkansas wasn't actually trying to score) resulted in two touchdowns, a field goal, and a punt. That's not awful, but it opened the door for LSU to catch up if the Tigers were able to turn their own three opportunities into touchdowns.

They turned those opportunities into two missed field goals and a turnover. Ballgame.