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Study Hall: Florida State 30, Miami 26

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Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State 30, Miami 26

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 61 74
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.3 26.8 29.9
Possessions 12 13
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.29 4.50 4.67
Leverage Rate** 63.9% 70.3% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.545 0.502 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Miami
Total 26.5 25.9
Rushing 10.7 9.1
Passing 15.7 16.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.6% 41.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 47.5% 43.4%
Passing (close) 39.5% 35.3% 40.2%
Standard Downs 46.2% 50.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 36.4% 22.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.02 0.83 0.85
Rushing (close) 1.19 0.48 0.74
Passing (close) 0.93 1.40 0.98
Standard Downs 0.95 0.81 0.77
Passing Downs 1.17 0.94 1.14
Line Stats Florida State Miami Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.76 3.40 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 4.8% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Florida State Miami
Turnovers 3 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 10.6 10.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Miami +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida State +0.29
TO Points Margin Miami +0.5 points
Situational Florida State Miami
Q1 S&P N/A 0.634
Q2 S&P 0.592 0.546
Q3 S&P 0.656 0.449
Q4 S&P 0.559 0.366
1st Down S&P 0.457 0.490
2nd Down S&P 0.637 0.398
3rd Down S&P 0.580 0.653
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 0.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 4

Me, last Tuesday:

Of course, saying, "if the odds hold," is basically saying, "if Miami beats Florida State." So your interpretation of this depends on whether you think there's a chance Florida State doesn't charge back to win by double digits after trailing early. It's the Seminoles' specialty, and while that doesn't impress the spreadsheets, they've become reliable at it.

In terms of success rate, FSU managed to go a perfect 0-for-9 in the first quarter, earning the "N/A" above in Q1 S&P+ -- with no successful plays, there is no denominator. The 'Noles had the requisite first-half interception, too. Yadda yadda yadda, they won.

Finishing drives was a very important part of this game -- in their losses, the Hurricanes were turnover-prone near the end zone (which makes sense considering the true freshman quarterback). They rendered FSU ineffective in this regard, which allowed them to stay in the game when the offense dried up in the second half, but their last four decent scoring chances resulted in two field goal attempts (one missed), a fumble, and an interception. That's not going to cut it.

I'm really interested in seeing what Miami's capable of next year, by the way. Obviously there are going to be some replacements needed at the skill positions, but Brad Kaaya is indeed just a freshman (one who just averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt in the biggest game of his life), and the defense has very much come around this year. They weren't good enough to beat FSU, but they held the 'Noles well below FSU's season success rate averages, and they have a lot of juniors.

That said, for the rest of this season, at least, it's still FSU's world.