Florida State 30, Miami 26
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|Basics||Florida State||Miami||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||30.3||26.8||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||4.29||4.50||4.67|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Florida State||Miami|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Florida State||Miami||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Florida State||Miami||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Florida State||Miami||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.76||3.40||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||4.8%||0.0%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||10.6||10.1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Miami +0.29|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Florida State +0.29|
|TO Points Margin||Miami +0.5 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.457||0.490|
|2nd Down S&P||0.637||0.398|
|3rd Down S&P||0.580||0.653|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 0.1|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 4|
Of course, saying, "if the odds hold," is basically saying, "if Miami beats Florida State." So your interpretation of this depends on whether you think there's a chance Florida State doesn't charge back to win by double digits after trailing early. It's the Seminoles' specialty, and while that doesn't impress the spreadsheets, they've become reliable at it.
In terms of success rate, FSU managed to go a perfect 0-for-9 in the first quarter, earning the "N/A" above in Q1 S&P+ -- with no successful plays, there is no denominator. The 'Noles had the requisite first-half interception, too. Yadda yadda yadda, they won.
Finishing drives was a very important part of this game -- in their losses, the Hurricanes were turnover-prone near the end zone (which makes sense considering the true freshman quarterback). They rendered FSU ineffective in this regard, which allowed them to stay in the game when the offense dried up in the second half, but their last four decent scoring chances resulted in two field goal attempts (one missed), a fumble, and an interception. That's not going to cut it.
I'm really interested in seeing what Miami's capable of next year, by the way. Obviously there are going to be some replacements needed at the skill positions, but Brad Kaaya is indeed just a freshman (one who just averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt in the biggest game of his life), and the defense has very much come around this year. They weren't good enough to beat FSU, but they held the 'Noles well below FSU's season success rate averages, and they have a lot of juniors.
That said, for the rest of this season, at least, it's still FSU's world.