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Study Hall: Georgia Tech 28, Clemson 6

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Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

From Matt Mills:

Georgia Tech 28, Clemson 6

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Clemson Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 54 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 80.9%
Avg Starting FP 31.7 30.0 29.9
Possessions 11 10
Scoring Opportunities*
3 6
Points Per Opportunity 2.00 2.67 4.67
Leverage Rate** 63.0% 50.8% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.398 0.481 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Clemson Georgia Tech
Total 9.6 20.0
Rushing 7.3 14.3
Passing 2.4 5.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Clemson Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.4% 37.8% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 41.4% 35.3% 43.4%
Passing (close) 26.3% 45.5% 40.2%
Standard Downs 47.1% 41.9% 47.1%
Passing Downs 7.1% 28.6% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Clemson Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.58 0.89 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.60 0.89 0.74
Passing (close) 0.52 0.90 0.98
Standard Downs 0.53 0.78 0.77
Passing Downs 1.23 1.27 1.14
Line Stats Clemson Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.34 2.24 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 50.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Clemson Georgia Tech
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 25.7 7.9
Turnover Margin Georgia Tech +1
Exp. TO Margin Clemson +0.36
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia Tech +1.36
TO Points Margin Georgia Tech +17.7 points
Situational Clemson Georgia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.441 0.280
Q2 S&P 0.206 0.443
Q3 S&P 0.466 0.642
Q4 S&P 0.107 0.459
1st Down S&P 0.364 0.468
2nd Down S&P 0.475 0.438
3rd Down S&P 0.189 0.574
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 28.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 22

A) I'm really glad Deshaun Watson didn't tear his ACL.

B) I don't think I've made enough of my favorite stat of 2014: Georgia Tech's offense is third in Passing Downs S&P+. You figure the Yellow Jackets will rate pretty well in the passing game because it's always going to be a little surprising when they throw -- it's like a Mike Leach team in reverse: even on third-and-1, you're a little surprised if a Leach offense doesn't throw the ball. Still, while running the ball 52% of the time on passing downs (the seventh-highest rate in the country), Tech is converting passing downs better than almost anybody else. I love that.

C) I love B enough to ignore the fact that Tech was absolutely horrendous at converting scoring opportunities into points. With two pick sixes and six scoring opportunities, the Jackets should have scored about 42 points.