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Study Hall: Georgia 34, Auburn 7

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Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia 34, Auburn 7

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn Georgia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 63 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 75.4%
Avg Starting FP 23.3 32.7 29.9
Possessions 9 10
Scoring Opportunities*
3 6
Points Per Opportunity 2.33 5.67 4.67
Leverage Rate** 52.4% 54.9% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.422 0.535 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn Georgia
Total 15.0 27.5
Rushing 8.8 19.2
Passing 6.2 8.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.6% 45.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 46.2% 48.7% 43.4%
Passing (close) 27.8% 38.9% 40.2%
Standard Downs 45.5% 59.0% 47.1%
Passing Downs 18.2% 16.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.57 0.85 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.59 0.74 0.74
Passing (close) 0.51 1.15 0.98
Standard Downs 0.55 0.71 0.77
Passing Downs 0.69 1.94 1.14
Line Stats Auburn Georgia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.27 3.61 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Auburn Georgia
Turnovers 3 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.9 0.0
Turnover Margin Georgia +3
Exp. TO Margin Georgia +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia +2.49
TO Points Margin Georgia +12.9 points
Situational Auburn Georgia
Q1 S&P 0.516 0.472
Q2 S&P 0.322 0.562
Q3 S&P 0.343 0.546
Q4 S&P 0.499 0.555
1st Down S&P 0.453 0.565
2nd Down S&P 0.415 0.449
3rd Down S&P 0.540 0.578
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia by 25.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia by 27

Auburn gained 70 yards in 10 plays on the opening drive of the game. The Tigers gained 222 yards in 53 plays (4.2 per play) the rest of the way.

Georgia is just so damn confusing this year. The Dawgs have some of the most impressive individual performances this year -- 45-21 over Clemson, 34-0 over Missouri, 34-7 over Auburn, and hell, the Troy, Vandy, Arkansas, and Auburn performances were pretty impressive, too.

But while the loss at South Carolina doesn't look that bad ... it's still not good. And the Florida loss is still the most baffling result this season. Auburn's loss to Texas A&M was more unexpected from a statistical standpoint, but you can at least explain how it happened: A&M got a couple of quick early strikes, got a return touchdown, and benefited from two late fumbles.

The Dawgs allowing Florida to just completely run all over them (before stopping Auburn from doing the same two weeks later) is just nonsense. It isn't going to make sense no matter how much I try to make it. And because of that loss, a) Georgia isn't a national title contender (think about the résumé if the Dawgs are 9-1 with a romp over Auburn!), and b) Georgia needs Missouri to lose again to even win the SEC East.