Georgia 34, Auburn 7
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||75.4%|
|Avg Starting FP||23.3||32.7||29.9|
|Points Per Opportunity||2.33||5.67||4.67|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Auburn||Georgia|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Auburn||Georgia||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Auburn||Georgia||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Auburn||Georgia||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.27||3.61||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||12.9||0.0|
|Turnover Margin||Georgia +3|
|Exp. TO Margin||Georgia +0.51|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Georgia +2.49|
|TO Points Margin||Georgia +12.9 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.453||0.565|
|2nd Down S&P||0.415||0.449|
|3rd Down S&P||0.540||0.578|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia by 25.4|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia by 27|
Auburn gained 70 yards in 10 plays on the opening drive of the game. The Tigers gained 222 yards in 53 plays (4.2 per play) the rest of the way.
Georgia is just so damn confusing this year. The Dawgs have some of the most impressive individual performances this year -- 45-21 over Clemson, 34-0 over Missouri, 34-7 over Auburn, and hell, the Troy, Vandy, Arkansas, and Auburn performances were pretty impressive, too.
But while the loss at South Carolina doesn't look that bad ... it's still not good. And the Florida loss is still the most baffling result this season. Auburn's loss to Texas A&M was more unexpected from a statistical standpoint, but you can at least explain how it happened: A&M got a couple of quick early strikes, got a return touchdown, and benefited from two late fumbles.
The Dawgs allowing Florida to just completely run all over them (before stopping Auburn from doing the same two weeks later) is just nonsense. It isn't going to make sense no matter how much I try to make it. And because of that loss, a) Georgia isn't a national title contender (think about the résumé if the Dawgs are 9-1 with a romp over Auburn!), and b) Georgia needs Missouri to lose again to even win the SEC East.