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Study Hall: Oregon State 35, Arizona State 27

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Oregon State 35, Arizona State 27

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Basics Arizona State Oregon State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 70
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.4 27.5 29.9
Possessions 14 15
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 4.00 4.67
Leverage Rate** 61.3% 67.1% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.429 0.540 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona State Oregon State
Total 21.1 31.2
Rushing 5.8 15.8
Passing 15.3 15.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona State Oregon State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 30.7% 38.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 31.0% 42.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 30.4% 34.3% 40.2%
Standard Downs 28.3% 46.8% 47.1%
Passing Downs 34.5% 21.7% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona State Oregon State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.92 1.16 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.65 1.05 0.74
Passing (close) 1.09 1.28 0.98
Standard Downs 0.95 0.78 0.77
Passing Downs 0.88 2.79 1.14
Line Stats Arizona State Oregon State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.15 2.45 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.2% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 4.6% 14.3% 7.5%
Turnovers Arizona State Oregon State
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 10.0 14.3
Turnover Margin Arizona State +2
Exp. TO Margin Oregon State +0.59
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona State +0.59
TO Points Margin Arizona State +4.3 points
Situational Arizona State Oregon State
Q1 S&P 0.441 0.847
Q2 S&P 0.580 0.265
Q3 S&P 0.293 0.610
Q4 S&P 0.366 0.601
1st Down S&P 0.430 0.407
2nd Down S&P 0.373 0.726
3rd Down S&P 0.547 1.209
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon State by 5.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon State by 8

Oregon State didn't exactly follow the upset script here. The Beavers merely broke even in terms of field position and finishing drives, and they lost the turnover battle. Luckily, they were simply better from an offense vs. defense standpoint. Sean Mannion gained nearly as many passing yards as Taylor Kelly in 11 fewer attempts, and my goodness, did OSU's running backs come up big in the big-play department -- Terron Ward and Storm Woods combined for 273 yards on 30 carries and gained 179 yards on three specific carries. And now ASU has gone from Pac-12 South favorite to one of many candidates in a slog.