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Oregon State 35, Arizona State 27
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona State | Oregon State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 70 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.4 | 27.5 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 14 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.3% | 67.1% | 68.2% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.429 | 0.540 | 0.505 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona State | Oregon State | |
| Total | 21.1 | 31.2 | |
| Rushing | 5.8 | 15.8 | |
| Passing | 15.3 | 15.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona State | Oregon State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 30.7% | 38.6% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 31.0% | 42.9% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 30.4% | 34.3% | 40.2% |
| Standard Downs | 28.3% | 46.8% | 47.1% |
| Passing Downs | 34.5% | 21.7% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona State | Oregon State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.92 | 1.16 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.65 | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.09 | 1.28 | 0.98 |
| Standard Downs | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.88 | 2.79 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Arizona State | Oregon State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.15 | 2.45 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.2% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.6% | 14.3% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Arizona State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 10.0 | 14.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Arizona State +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Oregon State +0.59 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arizona State +0.59 | |
| TO Points Margin | Arizona State +4.3 points | |
| Situational | Arizona State | Oregon State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.441 | 0.847 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.580 | 0.265 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.293 | 0.610 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.366 | 0.601 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.430 | 0.407 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.373 | 0.726 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.547 | 1.209 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon State by 5.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon State by 8 | ||
Oregon State didn't exactly follow the upset script here. The Beavers merely broke even in terms of field position and finishing drives, and they lost the turnover battle. Luckily, they were simply better from an offense vs. defense standpoint. Sean Mannion gained nearly as many passing yards as Taylor Kelly in 11 fewer attempts, and my goodness, did OSU's running backs come up big in the big-play department -- Terron Ward and Storm Woods combined for 273 yards on 30 carries and gained 179 yards on three specific carries. And now ASU has gone from Pac-12 South favorite to one of many candidates in a slog.