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Study Hall: Cincinnati 54, ECU 46

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati 54, East Carolina 46

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Cincinnati East Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 78 95
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 23.0 37.3 29.9
Possessions 15 16
Scoring Opportunities*
8 11
Points Per Opportunity 6.00 4.36 4.67
Leverage Rate** 76.9% 64.2% 68.2%
Close S&P*** 0.598 0.526 0.505
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Cincinnati East Carolina
Total 39.5 38.5
Rushing 10.5 16.9
Passing 29.0 21.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Cincinnati East Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.7% 41.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 43.8% 42.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 52.2% 40.3% 40.2%
Standard Downs 56.7% 44.3% 47.1%
Passing Downs 22.2% 35.3% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Cincinnati East Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.04 0.99 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.75 1.41 0.74
Passing (close) 1.21 0.80 0.98
Standard Downs 0.85 0.78 0.77
Passing Downs 2.64 1.46 1.14
Line Stats Cincinnati East Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.20 3.53 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 2.3% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 12.5% 7.5%
Turnovers Cincinnati East Carolina
Turnovers 4 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 16.0 12.3
Turnover Margin East Carolina +2
Exp. TO Margin Cincinnati +2.05
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) East Carolina +4.05
TO Points Margin East Carolina +3.7 points
Situational Cincinnati East Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.789 0.428
Q2 S&P 0.744 0.608
Q3 S&P 0.463 0.522
Q4 S&P 0.449 0.615
1st Down S&P 0.598 0.478
2nd Down S&P 0.593 0.486
3rd Down S&P 0.568 0.680
Projected Scoring Margin: East Carolina by 2.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Cincinnati by 8

I just wanted to see this one laid out on paper. It was a crazy one. From today's Numerical:

Thursday night's ECU-Cincinnati game may have only had six turnovers, which paled in comparison to other games. But it was probably the best game of the week from a pure action-and-swings standpoint. The teams combined to gain 1,165 yards and score 100 points, and East Carolina overcame two separate double-digit leads -- 17-6 early in the second quarter, 38-20 early in the third -- to take a 46-45 lead with just 1:02 left. But after committing a crippling turnover on downs that set up the go-ahead touchdown, Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel completed three passes for 35 yards to set up a 47-yard field goal from Andrew Gantz with 15 seconds left.

ECU did everything you're supposed to do to win a game like this, at least when you factor in some rather drastic turnovers luck. But the Pirates missed two long field goals and allowed points on every Cincy scoring opportunity, including six touchdowns to two field goals. That allowed the Bearcats to make up the difference.