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College football projections: Week 12 F/+ picks

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Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

It was a pretty blah week in every possible way.

ATS Week 11 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 24-24 (50%) 283-293-12 (49%)
"OLD" Method 23-25 (48%) 271-260-11 (51%)

Or, to put it another way, the picks went 24-20 and 23-21 after starting 0-4 because of stupid MACtion. But on the bright side, NEW and OLD went only 1-3 and 2-2, respectively, in mid-week MACtion games this week! Hooray!

Straight Up Week 11 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 2-3 (40%) 25-29 (46%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 5-3 (63%) 86-59 (59%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 7-5 (58%) 116-36 (76%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 9-4 (69%) 133-28 (83%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 9-1 (90%) 115-7 (94%)

This was one of the more wobbly weeks of the year for the win probabilities, with teams in the 70-89% range going only 16-9 (64%) and the first 98%-or-above team losing (Auburn, to Texas A&M). Those are things that happen within small samples, though, and actually, it helped to even out the full-season numbers to just about right where they need to be. Now I just need the 50-69% group to have a good week, and everybody will be within the correct range.

(And yes, I'm still planning on looking into that 50-69% group and making sure that home-field advantage is being properly assigned to those, or if that's having a negative impact.)

Week 12

No line out on Oklahoma-Texas Tech at the moment because of the news that Trevor Knight's not playing. I'll try to add it when I find one. Not that the injury news will have any effect on the F/+ pick itself...

Not starting in an 0-4 feels freeing, relaxing.

(Here's your weekly reminder that the score projections are clearly wacky and shouldn't be taken seriously. The margin is the key piece.)

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM ESPNU Akron at Buffalo 2.5 Akron by 13.0 (29.7 - 16.7) 72.9% Akron Akron by 8.0 Akron
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 Toledo at Northern Illinois 5 Toledo by 7.9 (60.3 - 52.3) 66.2% Toledo Toledo by 4.6 Northern Illinois XXX
Wed 8:00 PM ESPNU Ball State at Massachusetts -3 Ball State by 0.5 (36.5 - 36.0) 56.4% Ball State Ball State by 0.1 Ball State
Wed 8:00 PM ESPN2 Kent State at Bowling Green -14 Bowling Green by 7.9 (29.9 - 22.0) 67.0% Kent State Bowling Green by 5.3 Kent State
Thu 7:00 PM ESPN2 East Carolina at Cincinnati 3 Cincinnati by 0.2 (42.4 - 42.2) 55.9% Cincinnati Cincinnati by 0.3 Cincinnati
Thu 8:00 PM CBSSN Southern Miss at UTSA -7 UTSA by 18.6 (26.8 - 8.2) 80.4% UTSA UTSA by 12.8 UTSA
Thu 9:00 PM ESPN California at USC -14 USC by 28.1 (51.3 - 23.2) 86.2% USC USC by 16.8 USC
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN2 Tulsa at Central Florida -21 Central Florida by 41.1 (52.8 - 11.7) 94.5% Central Florida Central Florida by 25.0 Central Florida
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Army at Western Kentucky -10 Western Kentucky by 18.0 (52.5 - 34.5) 78.5% Western Kentucky Western Kentucky by 11.5 Western Kentucky
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Clemson at Georgia Tech 3 Georgia Tech by 7.5 (40.5 - 33.0) 65.6% Georgia Tech Georgia Tech by 4.6 Georgia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Iowa at Illinois 3.5 Iowa by 11.7 (30.8 - 19.1) 72.3% Iowa Iowa by 7.7 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Minnesota 14 Ohio State by 24.5 (39.6 - 15.1) 84.7% Ohio State Ohio State by 15.4 Ohio State
Sat 12:00 PM SECN South Carolina at Florida -7 Florida by 12.3 (48.9 - 36.6) 71.9% Florida Florida by 7.8 Florida
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Temple at Penn State -11 Penn State by 19.9 (15.0 - -4.9) 81.9% Penn State Penn State by 13.8 Penn State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Virginia Tech at Duke -5.5 Duke by 12.2 (18.7 - 6.5) 71.9% Duke Duke by 7.8 Duke
Sat 12:30 PM Pittsburgh at North Carolina -2 Pittsburgh by 11.1 (51.7 - 40.7) 70.4% Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 6.7 Pittsburgh
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Central Michigan -17 Central Michigan by 20.1 (38.6 - 18.5) 82.1% Central Michigan Central Michigan by 13.9 Miami-OH XXX
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan -27 Western Michigan by 50.7 (43.9 - -6.8) 98.6% Western Michigan Western Michigan by 35.6 Western Michigan
Sat 2:00 PM Nevada at Air Force -2 Air Force by 12.5 (33.3 - 20.7) 70.9% Air Force Air Force by 7.2 Air Force
Sat 2:30 PM Rice at Marshall -21.5 Marshall by 49.9 (60.9 - 11.0) 97.9% Marshall Marshall by 31.6 Marshall
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at Arkansas State -14.5 Arkansas State by 45.3 (60.0 - 14.7) 95.4% Arkansas State Arkansas State by 26.4 Arkansas State
Sat 3:00 PM FS1 TCU at Kansas 29 TCU by 68.4 (61.6 - -6.8) 98.6% TCU TCU by 39.6 TCU
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Wake Forest at NC State -17 NC State by 10.9 (20.8 - 9.9) 72.7% Wake Forest NC State by 8.2 Wake Forest
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Georgia Southern at Navy -3 Navy by 5.0 (46.8 - 41.8) 63.0% Navy Navy by 3.4 Navy
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Indiana at Rutgers -7 Rutgers by 17.6 (38.6 - 21.0) 79.4% Rutgers Rutgers by 12.1 Rutgers
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Memphis at Tulane 11 Memphis by 25.3 (35.3 - 10.1) 84.6% Memphis Memphis by 15.3 Memphis
Sat 3:30 PM Middle Tennessee at Florida International 5 Florida International by 0.9 (16.6 - 15.7) 57.0% Florida International Florida International by 0.7 Florida International
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Mississippi State at Alabama -8 Alabama by 9.4 (30.9 - 21.5) 68.3% Alabama Alabama by 6.0 Mississippi State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Nebraska at Wisconsin -6.5 Wisconsin by 2.9 (22.0 - 19.1) 59.8% Nebraska Wisconsin by 2.0 Nebraska
Sat 3:30 PM NBC Northwestern at Notre Dame -17.5 Notre Dame by 39.6 (46.6 - 7.0) 94.0% Notre Dame Notre Dame by 24.4 Notre Dame
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma at Texas Tech ??? Oklahoma by 46.7 (68.5 - 21.8) 97.0% ??? Oklahoma by 29.0 ???
Sat 3:30 PM Fox Washington at Arizona -9 Arizona by 29.4 (41.0 - 11.6) 86.5% Arizona Arizona by 17.1 Arizona
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Kentucky at Tennessee -8.5 Tennessee by 28.0 (35.6 - 7.6) 87.1% Tennessee Tennessee by 17.5 Tennessee
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News New Mexico at Utah State -19.5 Utah State by 24.5 (38.4 - 13.9) 86.6% Utah State Utah State by 17.2 New Mexico XXX
Sat 4:30 PM Hawaii at San Jose State -10.5 San Jose State by 7.8 (30.3 - 22.5) 66.1% Hawaii San Jose State by 4.8 Hawaii
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at Idaho -6.5 Idaho by 20.9 (48.6 - 27.7) 81.1% Idaho Idaho by 13.2 Idaho
Sat 6:00 PM Pac-12 Utah at Stanford -7.5 Stanford by 3.4 (8.3 - 4.9) 60.9% Utah Stanford by 2.4 Utah
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Lafayette at UL-Monroe 7 UL-Lafayette by 8.4 (30.2 - 21.8) 67.4% UL-Lafayette UL-Lafayette by 5.2 UL-Monroe XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU UNLV at BYU -26 BYU by 57.2 (71.2 - 14.0) 98.5% BYU BYU by 34.4 BYU
Sat 7:15 PM ESPN Auburn at Georgia -2 Auburn by 7.0 (45.0 - 37.9) 65.9% Auburn Auburn by 4.4 Auburn
Sat 7:30 PM SECN Missouri at Texas A&M -4.5 Missouri by 2.7 (22.4 - 19.8) 59.8% Missouri Missouri by 1.6 Missouri
Sat 7:30 PM Fox Texas at Oklahoma State 3 Texas by 2.8 (19.5 - 16.7) 59.9% Oklahoma State Texas by 1.7 Oklahoma State
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Texas State at South Alabama -4 South Alabama by 10.0 (24.4 - 14.4) 69.0% South Alabama South Alabama by 6.3 South Alabama
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Florida State at Miami-FL 3 Miami-FL by 3.2 (32.0 - 28.8) 61.0% Miami-FL Miami-FL by 2.5 Miami-FL
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN2 LSU at Arkansas -2 LSU by 19.3 (33.4 - 14.2) 79.6% LSU LSU by 11.9 LSU
Sat 8:00 PM BTN Michigan State at Maryland 12.5 Michigan State by 10.9 (37.4 - 26.6) 70.5% Maryland Michigan State by 6.7 Maryland
Sat 8:00 PM CBSSN South Florida at SMU 11 South Florida by 13.0 (23.0 - 10.0) 75.8% South Florida South Florida by 9.6 SMU XXX
Sat 10:00 PM FS1 North Texas at UTEP -6 UTEP by 16.3 (29.5 - 13.2) 77.9% UTEP UTEP by 11.2 UTEP
Sat 10:15 PM ESPNU San Diego State at Boise State -14 Boise State by 39.3 (41.7 - 2.3) 94.4% Boise State Boise State by 24.9 Boise State
Sat 10:45 PM ESPN Arizona State at Oregon State 9 Arizona State by 34.6 (52.8 - 18.2) 92.1% Arizona State Arizona State by 21.9 Arizona State