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It was a pretty blah week in every possible way.
| ATS | Week 11 | 2014 Season |
| "NEW" Method | 24-24 (50%) | 283-293-12 (49%) |
| "OLD" Method | 23-25 (48%) | 271-260-11 (51%) |
Or, to put it another way, the picks went 24-20 and 23-21 after starting 0-4 because of stupid MACtion. But on the bright side, NEW and OLD went only 1-3 and 2-2, respectively, in mid-week MACtion games this week! Hooray!
| Straight Up | Week 11 | 2014 Season |
| Teams with 50-60% chance of winning | 2-3 (40%) | 25-29 (46%) |
| Teams with 60-70% chance of winning | 5-3 (63%) | 86-59 (59%) |
| Teams with 70-80% chance of winning | 7-5 (58%) | 116-36 (76%) |
| Teams with 80-90% chance of winning | 9-4 (69%) | 133-28 (83%) |
| Teams with 90-100% chance of winning | 9-1 (90%) | 115-7 (94%) |
This was one of the more wobbly weeks of the year for the win probabilities, with teams in the 70-89% range going only 16-9 (64%) and the first 98%-or-above team losing (Auburn, to Texas A&M). Those are things that happen within small samples, though, and actually, it helped to even out the full-season numbers to just about right where they need to be. Now I just need the 50-69% group to have a good week, and everybody will be within the correct range.
(And yes, I'm still planning on looking into that 50-69% group and making sure that home-field advantage is being properly assigned to those, or if that's having a negative impact.)
Week 12
No line out on Oklahoma-Texas Tech at the moment because of the news that Trevor Knight's not playing. I'll try to add it when I find one. Not that the injury news will have any effect on the F/+ pick itself...
Not starting in an 0-4 feels freeing, relaxing.
(Here's your weekly reminder that the score projections are clearly wacky and shouldn't be taken seriously. The margin is the key piece.)
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue | 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Akron at Buffalo | 2.5 | Akron by 13.0 (29.7 - 16.7) | 72.9% | Akron by 8.0 | |||
| Tue | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Toledo at Northern Illinois | 5 | Toledo by 7.9 (60.3 - 52.3) | 66.2% | Toledo by 4.6 | Northern Illinois | XXX | |
| Wed | 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Ball State at Massachusetts | -3 | Ball State by 0.5 (36.5 - 36.0) | 56.4% | Ball State by 0.1 | |||
| Wed | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Kent State at Bowling Green | -14 | Bowling Green by 7.9 (29.9 - 22.0) | 67.0% | Kent State | Bowling Green by 5.3 | Kent State | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | East Carolina at Cincinnati | 3 | Cincinnati by 0.2 (42.4 - 42.2) | 55.9% | Cincinnati | Cincinnati by 0.3 | Cincinnati | |
| Thu | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Southern Miss at UTSA | -7 | UTSA by 18.6 (26.8 - 8.2) | 80.4% | UTSA | UTSA by 12.8 | UTSA | |
| Thu | 9:00 PM | ESPN | California at USC | -14 | USC by 28.1 (51.3 - 23.2) | 86.2% | USC | USC by 16.8 | USC | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Tulsa at Central Florida | -21 | Central Florida by 41.1 (52.8 - 11.7) | 94.5% | Central Florida | Central Florida by 25.0 | Central Florida | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Army at Western Kentucky | -10 | Western Kentucky by 18.0 (52.5 - 34.5) | 78.5% | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky by 11.5 | Western Kentucky | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Clemson at Georgia Tech | 3 | Georgia Tech by 7.5 (40.5 - 33.0) | 65.6% | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech by 4.6 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Iowa at Illinois | 3.5 | Iowa by 11.7 (30.8 - 19.1) | 72.3% | Iowa | Iowa by 7.7 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC | Ohio State at Minnesota | 14 | Ohio State by 24.5 (39.6 - 15.1) | 84.7% | Ohio State | Ohio State by 15.4 | Ohio State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | South Carolina at Florida | -7 | Florida by 12.3 (48.9 - 36.6) | 71.9% | Florida | Florida by 7.8 | Florida | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Temple at Penn State | -11 | Penn State by 19.9 (15.0 - -4.9) | 81.9% | Penn State | Penn State by 13.8 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Virginia Tech at Duke | -5.5 | Duke by 12.2 (18.7 - 6.5) | 71.9% | Duke | Duke by 7.8 | Duke | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Pittsburgh at North Carolina | -2 | Pittsburgh by 11.1 (51.7 - 40.7) | 70.4% | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh by 6.7 | Pittsburgh | ||
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Central Michigan | -17 | Central Michigan by 20.1 (38.6 - 18.5) | 82.1% | Central Michigan | Central Michigan by 13.9 | Miami-OH | XXX |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan | -27 | Western Michigan by 50.7 (43.9 - -6.8) | 98.6% | Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 35.6 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Nevada at Air Force | -2 | Air Force by 12.5 (33.3 - 20.7) | 70.9% | Air Force | Air Force by 7.2 | Air Force | ||
| Sat | 2:30 PM | Rice at Marshall | -21.5 | Marshall by 49.9 (60.9 - 11.0) | 97.9% | Marshall | Marshall by 31.6 | Marshall | ||
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at Arkansas State | -14.5 | Arkansas State by 45.3 (60.0 - 14.7) | 95.4% | Arkansas State | Arkansas State by 26.4 | Arkansas State | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | FS1 | TCU at Kansas | 29 | TCU by 68.4 (61.6 - -6.8) | 98.6% | TCU | TCU by 39.6 | TCU | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Wake Forest at NC State | -17 | NC State by 10.9 (20.8 - 9.9) | 72.7% | Wake Forest | NC State by 8.2 | Wake Forest | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Georgia Southern at Navy | -3 | Navy by 5.0 (46.8 - 41.8) | 63.0% | Navy | Navy by 3.4 | Navy | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Indiana at Rutgers | -7 | Rutgers by 17.6 (38.6 - 21.0) | 79.4% | Rutgers | Rutgers by 12.1 | Rutgers | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Memphis at Tulane | 11 | Memphis by 25.3 (35.3 - 10.1) | 84.6% | Memphis | Memphis by 15.3 | Memphis | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Middle Tennessee at Florida International | 5 | Florida International by 0.9 (16.6 - 15.7) | 57.0% | Florida International | Florida International by 0.7 | Florida International | ||
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Mississippi State at Alabama | -8 | Alabama by 9.4 (30.9 - 21.5) | 68.3% | Alabama | Alabama by 6.0 | Mississippi State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Nebraska at Wisconsin | -6.5 | Wisconsin by 2.9 (22.0 - 19.1) | 59.8% | Nebraska | Wisconsin by 2.0 | Nebraska | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Northwestern at Notre Dame | -17.5 | Notre Dame by 39.6 (46.6 - 7.0) | 94.0% | Notre Dame | Notre Dame by 24.4 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma at Texas Tech | ??? | Oklahoma by 46.7 (68.5 - 21.8) | 97.0% | ??? | Oklahoma by 29.0 | ??? | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Fox | Washington at Arizona | -9 | Arizona by 29.4 (41.0 - 11.6) | 86.5% | Arizona | Arizona by 17.1 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Kentucky at Tennessee | -8.5 | Tennessee by 28.0 (35.6 - 7.6) | 87.1% | Tennessee | Tennessee by 17.5 | Tennessee | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | New Mexico at Utah State | -19.5 | Utah State by 24.5 (38.4 - 13.9) | 86.6% | Utah State | Utah State by 17.2 | New Mexico | XXX |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | Hawaii at San Jose State | -10.5 | San Jose State by 7.8 (30.3 - 22.5) | 66.1% | Hawaii | San Jose State by 4.8 | Hawaii | ||
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at Idaho | -6.5 | Idaho by 20.9 (48.6 - 27.7) | 81.1% | Idaho | Idaho by 13.2 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | Utah at Stanford | -7.5 | Stanford by 3.4 (8.3 - 4.9) | 60.9% | Utah | Stanford by 2.4 | Utah | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Lafayette at UL-Monroe | 7 | UL-Lafayette by 8.4 (30.2 - 21.8) | 67.4% | UL-Lafayette | UL-Lafayette by 5.2 | UL-Monroe | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | UNLV at BYU | -26 | BYU by 57.2 (71.2 - 14.0) | 98.5% | BYU | BYU by 34.4 | BYU | |
| Sat | 7:15 PM | ESPN | Auburn at Georgia | -2 | Auburn by 7.0 (45.0 - 37.9) | 65.9% | Auburn | Auburn by 4.4 | Auburn | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | Missouri at Texas A&M | -4.5 | Missouri by 2.7 (22.4 - 19.8) | 59.8% | Missouri | Missouri by 1.6 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Fox | Texas at Oklahoma State | 3 | Texas by 2.8 (19.5 - 16.7) | 59.9% | Oklahoma State | Texas by 1.7 | Oklahoma State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Texas State at South Alabama | -4 | South Alabama by 10.0 (24.4 - 14.4) | 69.0% | South Alabama | South Alabama by 6.3 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Florida State at Miami-FL | 3 | Miami-FL by 3.2 (32.0 - 28.8) | 61.0% | Miami-FL | Miami-FL by 2.5 | Miami-FL | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | LSU at Arkansas | -2 | LSU by 19.3 (33.4 - 14.2) | 79.6% | LSU | LSU by 11.9 | LSU | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | BTN | Michigan State at Maryland | 12.5 | Michigan State by 10.9 (37.4 - 26.6) | 70.5% | Maryland | Michigan State by 6.7 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | South Florida at SMU | 11 | South Florida by 13.0 (23.0 - 10.0) | 75.8% | South Florida | South Florida by 9.6 | SMU | XXX |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | FS1 | North Texas at UTEP | -6 | UTEP by 16.3 (29.5 - 13.2) | 77.9% | UTEP | UTEP by 11.2 | UTEP | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPNU | San Diego State at Boise State | -14 | Boise State by 39.3 (41.7 - 2.3) | 94.4% | Boise State | Boise State by 24.9 | Boise State | |
| Sat | 10:45 PM | ESPN | Arizona State at Oregon State | 9 | Arizona State by 34.6 (52.8 - 18.2) | 92.1% | Arizona State | Arizona State by 21.9 | Arizona State |
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