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Updated Pac-12 conference projections through 11 weeks

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Oregon has a better than 75% chance of winning the Pac-12, most likely defeating Arizona State in the conference title game.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

Last week, Oregon made official what we've known for a while about the North division race. Now we try to figure out the South.

Odds of conference records
North F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Oregon (6-1, 9-1) 4 7.96 7.84 (+0.12)

Stanford (3-3, 5-4) 35 4.48 4.53 (-0.05) 4.87 3.87
Washington (2-4, 6-4) 61 3.45 3.58 (-0.13) 4.31 3.31
California (3-4, 5-4) 49 3.49 3.47 (+0.02) 4.34 3.34
Oregon State (1-5, 4-5) 73 1.39 2.14 (-0.75) 2.30 1.30
Washington State (2-5, 3-7) 76 2.44 1.69 (+0.74)

South F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 11 win With Week 11 loss
Arizona State (5-1, 8-1) 16 7.56 7.46 (+0.10) 7.64 6.64
UCLA (5-2, 8-2) 20 6.47 6.35 (+0.12)

USC (5-2, 6-3) 24 6.17 6.16 (+0.01) 6.31 5.31
Arizona (4-2, 7-2) 30 5.57 5.64 (-0.07) 5.71 4.71
Utah (3-3, 6-3) 31 4.84 4.88 (-0.04) 5.45 4.45
Colorado (0-7, 2-8) 74 0.19 0.26 (-0.07)

North

We're done here. Congrats, Ducks.

South

Technically, five teams still have a chance at the Pac-12 South title. If Arizona State loses to both Oregon State (about an 8% chance) and Washington State (about a 3% chance), Utah and USC are in the game. But for the most part, it doesn't look good for anybody but ASU, UCLA, and Arizona.

Okay, it really doesn't look good for anybody but ASU.

Odds of winning the South
Arizona State 71.8%
UCLA 22.1%
Arizona 5.2%
USC 0.01%
Utah 0.004%
NO IDEA* 0.9%

* Of the 512 remaining result scenarios for the nine remaining games featuring these teams, a handful result in a four- or five-way division tie that I just didn't have the time or wherewithal to unpack. So there's a tiny chance for Slog Level Delta, but until two of this week's three relevant games (ASU-Oregon State, Utah-Stanford, Washington-Arizona) result in upsets, Slog's odds of winning the division remain minuscule.

Two games will have a pretty direct impact on the race this week: Washington at Arizona and Arizona State at Oregon State.

Arizona-UW kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET, and if Arizona wins, not much changes. The Wildcats' odds improve from 5% to 6%, and ASU's fall from 72% to 71%. But if there's an upset, it becomes almost entirely a two-team race, with ASU's odds improving to 77%, UCLA's to 22%, and SLOG's to 1%.

Depending on the outcome of that game (which will probably be an Arizona win), here's what happens with ASU's late-night battle against OSU.

Arizona and ASU win (80% chance): ASU 75%, UCLA 19%, Arizona 6%.
Washington and ASU win (12% chance): ASU 81%, UCLA 19%.
Arizona and OSU win (7% chance): UCLA 56%, ASU 30%, SLOG 8%, Arizona 6%.
Washington and OSU win (1% chance): UCLA 58%, ASU 31%, SLOG 11%.

If you're an ASU fan: Go Dawgs, go Devils!
If you're a UCLA fan: Go Bruins, go Beavs!
If you're an Arizona fan: Go Wildcats, go Beavs!
If you're a fan of Utah, USC, or SLOG: Go Beavs!

(For more on the South race, check out today's post from Pacific Takes.)

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 13-Nov-14 California USC 13.8%
12 15-Nov-14 Arizona State Oregon State 92.1%
12 15-Nov-14 Utah Stanford 39.1%
12 15-Nov-14 Washington Arizona 13.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Arizona Utah 37.9%
13 22-Nov-14 Colorado Oregon 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oregon State Washington 29.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Stanford California 65.2%
13 22-Nov-14 USC UCLA 31.9%
13 22-Nov-14 Washington State Arizona State 2.7%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Arizona State Arizona 66.0%
14 28-Nov-14 Stanford UCLA 21.5%
14 29-Nov-14 Oregon Oregon State 97.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Utah Colorado 82.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Washington Washington State 59.3%

Title Games and Title Odds

So if we have title odds for each division, that means we have odds for all possible title game scenarios.

Arizona State UCLA Arizona ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Oregon 72% 22% 5% 1%

And here are the odds for all possible title games:

Oregon vs. Arizona State: Oregon 75%
Oregon vs. UCLA: Oregon 78%
Oregon vs. Arizona: Oregon 87%
Oregon vs. USC: Oregon 81%
Oregon vs. Utah: Oregon 88%

Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:

1. Oregon 76%

2. Arizona State 18%

3. UCLA 5%

4. Arizona 1%

5. USC <0.1%

6. Utah <0.001%

YOU'VE STILL GOT A CHANCE, UTES.