:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/44031934/20131207_mje_aw3_2028.0.jpg)
Win projections
As with the Big 12, the Big Ten West currently gives us a two-way race with a three-way tie for first.
| West | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin (4-1, 7-2) | 19 | 6.22 | 5.78 (+0.43) | 6.62 | 5.62 |
| Nebraska (4-1, 8-1) | 14 | 6.08 | 6.29 (-0.22) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| Minnesota (4-1, 7-2) | 34 | 4.55 | 3.94 (+0.61) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| Iowa (3-2, 6-3) | 56 | 4.03 | 4.79 (-0.76) | 4.31 | 3.31 |
| Northwestern (2-4, 3-6) | 67 | 3.10 | 3.54 (-0.44) | ||
| Purdue (1-5, 3-7) | 65 | 2.30 | 2.50 (-0.20) | ||
| Illinois (1-4, 4-5) | 84 | 1.71 | 1.53 (+0.19) | 2.44 | 1.44 |
| East | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss |
| Ohio State (5-0, 8-1) | 3 | 7.81 | 7.26 (+0.56) | 7.97 | 6.97 |
| Michigan State (4-1, 7-2) | 25 | 6.32 | 7.20 (-0.88) | 6.62 | 5.62 |
| Maryland (3-2, 6-3) | 42 | 4.66 | 4.63 (+0.03) | 5.37 | 4.37 |
| Michigan (3-3, 5-5) | 55 | 3.42 | 2.98 (+0.44) | ||
| Penn State (2-4, 5-4) | 44 | 3.10 | 2.78 (+0.32) | ||
| Rutgers (1-4, 5-4) | 62 | 2.11 | 1.99 (+0.12) | 2.32 | 1.32 |
| Indiana (0-5, 3-6) | 82 | 0.58 | 0.79 (-0.21) | 1.37 | 0.37 |
West
Right now, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are all tied at 4-1 in conference play. Nebraska and Wisconsin play each other this weekend, which means only one of them has a shot at 7-1. Then, they take turns heading to Iowa City and hosting Minnesota. The Gophers, meanwhile, drew the short straw from the schedule makers.
- Nebraska: at Wisconsin (win probability: 40%), Minnesota (81%), at Iowa (85%)
- Wisconsin: Nebraska (60%), at Iowa (83%), Minnesota (79%)
- Minnesota: Ohio State (15%), at Nebraska (19%), at Wisconsin (21%)
Basically, all three teams control their destiny, and the schedule makers did a nice job of setting up some huge games down the stretch. Unfortunately, only two of the three teams have decent odds of winning their remaining games.
The good news, I guess, is that Minnesota only has a 54 percent chance of finishing 0-3. That means there's an almost 50-50 chance that the Gophers land some sort of upset. But they'll need two of them to have a chance in the West. In 10,000 simulations, the West champion was 7-1 69.5% of the time and was 6-2 30.5% of the time.
So yeah, right now we'll assume that the Nebraska-Wisconsin winner is the West winner. And Wisconsin has improved just enough in recent weeks for home field advantage to swing the percentages ever so slightly in the Badgers' favor.
East
Ohio State wins the division if it finishes 7-1 or better. The odds above say there's a 99.4% chance the Buckeyes finish 7-1 or better.
I don't think we need to go into any further detail. Minnesota has requested, and might receive, some pretty impressive winter weather this weekend, and hey, the Gophers having a 15% chance does mean they'd win 1-2 of every 10, right? So yeah, if the Buckeyes lose this weekend, we'll open up the investigation next Wednesday. But I'm going to let that happen first.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Indiana | Rutgers | 20.6% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Iowa | Illinois | 72.3% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Michigan State | Maryland | 70.5% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Nebraska | Wisconsin | 40.2% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Ohio State | Minnesota | 84.7% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Indiana | Ohio State | 1.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Maryland | Michigan | 59.2% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Nebraska | 18.9% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Northwestern | Purdue | 35.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Penn State | Illinois | 80.1% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Michigan State | 8.9% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Wisconsin | Iowa | 83.2% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 28-Nov-14 | Nebraska | Iowa | 85.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Illinois | Northwestern | 24.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan | Ohio State | 2.0% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Michigan State | Penn State | 71.2% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Minnesota | Wisconsin | 21.3% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Purdue | Indiana | 63.9% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Rutgers | Maryland | 22.6% |
Title Games and Title Odds
So basically, it's Ohio State vs. either Wisconsin, Nebraska, or (probably not) Minnesota.
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin: Buckeyes 77%
Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Buckeyes 75%
Ohio State vs. Minnesota: Buckeyes 89%
Perhaps the most interesting facet of the remaining conference race is the role the West champion might have on the Buckeyes' national title chances. From today's Playoff projections at SB Nation:
Nebraska at Wisconsin. Wisconsin's rebound has made this a much tougher game than it appeared a few weeks ago, especially if the Huskers' star running back, Ameer Abdullah, is at less than 100 percent health. Not only does NU need to win to keep faint Playoff hopes alive, Ohio State might need to beat an 11-1, top-10 Nebraska team in the Big Ten title game to have a shot.
At eighth in the Playoff rankings, Ohio State has some catching up to do. Blowing out a top-10 Nebraska team might be the most direct route for doing that. Wisconsin can all but prevent that from happening this weekend.
Loading comments...