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It's weird having a three-way tie at 5-1 and basically having a two-team race, but considering the remaining schedule, that's basically where we are in the Big 12.
| Team | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 12 win | With Week 12 loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU (5-1, 8-1) | 7 | 7.91 | 7.60 (+0.31) | 7.92 | 6.92 |
| Baylor (5-1, 8-1) | 8 | 7.77 | 6.67 (+1.10) | ||
| Kansas State (5-1, 7-2) | 26 | 6.58 | 7.32 (-0.74) | ||
| Oklahoma (3-3, 6-3) | 11 | 5.94 | 6.77 (-0.83) | 5.97 | 4.97 |
| West Virginia (4-3, 6-4) | 27 | 5.51 | 6.10 (-0.59) | ||
| Texas (4-3, 5-5) | 53 | 4.66 | 3.64 (+1.03) | 5.07 | 4.07 |
| Oklahoma State (3-3, 5-4) | 69 | 3.44 | 3.66 (-0.22) | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| Texas Tech (1-5, 3-6) | 81 | 1.44 | 1.36 (+0.08) | 2.42 | 1.42 |
| Kansas (1-5, 3-6) | 102 | 1.04 | 0.26 (+0.78) | 2.03 | 1.03 |
| Iowa State (0-6, 2-7) | 83 | 0.71 | 1.63 (-0.92) |
Almost everybody in the conference still has three games remaining, and technically anybody who can get to 5-4 (so, seven of 10 teams) technically still has a shot at maybe tying for the conference lead. Still, when you look at it this way, it's almost impossible to see anybody but TCU or Baylor winning the conference at this point: over 10,000 simulations, the conference champion finished 8-1 98.7 percent of the time and never finished below 7-2. So that basically eliminates everybody but TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State.
Here are the remaining schedules for those three teams:
- TCU: at Kansas (98.6% win probability), at Texas (93.4%), Iowa State (98.6%).
- Baylor: Oklahoma State (98.2%), at Texas Tech (97.6%), Kansas State (80.9%).
- Kansas State: at West Virginia (40.3%), Kansas (98.5%), at Baylor (19.1%).
Kansas State needs to win out (which would include a win over Baylor) and have TCU lose one of three 90%+ games. And while Texas has proven volatile enough that we can maybe believe the Longhorns can upset the Frogs at home, KSU needs for that to happen and, again, to beat Baylor in Waco. Not bloody likely.
That, of course, means that we're cruising toward a two-team tie at 8-1. Baylor would win the tie-breaker, though as we saw from the Playoff committee this week, that might not be enough to get the Bears past TCU in the Playoff pecking order.
All Projections
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Oklahoma | Texas Tech | 97.0% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | TCU | Kansas | 98.6% |
| 12 | 15-Nov-14 | Texas | Oklahoma State | 59.9% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 13 | 20-Nov-14 | Kansas State | West Virginia | 40.3% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Kansas | Oklahoma | 1.4% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Oklahoma State | Baylor | 1.8% |
| 13 | 22-Nov-14 | Texas Tech | Iowa State | 39.8% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 14 | 27-Nov-14 | TCU | Texas | 93.4% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Baylor | Texas Tech | 97.6% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | Kansas | Kansas State | 1.5% |
| 14 | 29-Nov-14 | West Virginia | Iowa State | 90.8% |
| Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
| 15 | 06-Dec-14 | Iowa State | TCU | 1.4% |
| 15 | 06-Dec-14 | Kansas State | Baylor | 19.1% |
| 15 | 06-Dec-14 | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma | 2.2% |
The top half of this conference has really sealed itself off from the bottom half, and as a result, 10 of the remaining 14 games have a win probability of greater than 90% (including all four Thanksgiving weekend matchups and two of three Week 15 games) and only three are under 70%. We could see an upset here or there -- Texas over TCU, maybe, or Iowa State pulling its annual upset over WVU on November 29 -- but we pretty much know how this is going to finish. That's ... well, that's pretty boring.
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