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Updated Big 12 conference projections after 11 weeks

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Brett Deering

It's weird having a three-way tie at 5-1 and basically having a two-team race, but considering the remaining schedule, that's basically where we are in the Big 12.

Odds of conference records
Team F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 12 win With Week 12 loss
TCU (5-1, 8-1) 7 7.91 7.60 (+0.31) 7.92 6.92
Baylor (5-1, 8-1) 8 7.77 6.67 (+1.10)
Kansas State (5-1, 7-2) 26 6.58 7.32 (-0.74)
Oklahoma (3-3, 6-3) 11 5.94 6.77 (-0.83) 5.97 4.97
West Virginia (4-3, 6-4) 27 5.51 6.10 (-0.59)
Texas (4-3, 5-5) 53 4.66 3.64 (+1.03) 5.07 4.07
Oklahoma State (3-3, 5-4) 69 3.44 3.66 (-0.22) 4.04 3.04
Texas Tech (1-5, 3-6) 81 1.44 1.36 (+0.08) 2.42 1.42
Kansas (1-5, 3-6) 102 1.04 0.26 (+0.78) 2.03 1.03
Iowa State (0-6, 2-7) 83 0.71 1.63 (-0.92)

Almost everybody in the conference still has three games remaining, and technically anybody who can get to 5-4 (so, seven of 10 teams) technically still has a shot at maybe tying for the conference lead. Still, when you look at it this way, it's almost impossible to see anybody but TCU or Baylor winning the conference at this point: over 10,000 simulations, the conference champion finished 8-1 98.7 percent of the time and never finished below 7-2. So that basically eliminates everybody but TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State.

Here are the remaining schedules for those three teams:

  • TCU: at Kansas (98.6% win probability), at Texas (93.4%), Iowa State (98.6%).
  • Baylor: Oklahoma State (98.2%), at Texas Tech (97.6%), Kansas State (80.9%).
  • Kansas State: at West Virginia (40.3%), Kansas (98.5%), at Baylor (19.1%).

Kansas State needs to win out (which would include a win over Baylor) and have TCU lose one of three 90%+ games. And while Texas has proven volatile enough that we can maybe believe the Longhorns can upset the Frogs at home, KSU needs for that to happen and, again, to beat Baylor in Waco. Not bloody likely.

That, of course, means that we're cruising toward a two-team tie at 8-1. Baylor would win the tie-breaker, though as we saw from the Playoff committee this week, that might not be enough to get the Bears past TCU in the Playoff pecking order.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Oklahoma Texas Tech 97.0%
12 15-Nov-14 TCU Kansas 98.6%
12 15-Nov-14 Texas Oklahoma State 59.9%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 20-Nov-14 Kansas State West Virginia 40.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Kansas Oklahoma 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oklahoma State Baylor 1.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Texas Tech Iowa State 39.8%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 TCU Texas 93.4%
14 29-Nov-14 Baylor Texas Tech 97.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Kansas Kansas State 1.5%
14 29-Nov-14 West Virginia Iowa State 90.8%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
15 06-Dec-14 Iowa State TCU 1.4%
15 06-Dec-14 Kansas State Baylor 19.1%
15 06-Dec-14 Oklahoma State Oklahoma 2.2%

The top half of this conference has really sealed itself off from the bottom half, and as a result, 10 of the remaining 14 games have a win probability of greater than 90% (including all four Thanksgiving weekend matchups and two of three Week 15 games) and only three are under 70%. We could see an upset here or there -- Texas over TCU, maybe, or Iowa State pulling its annual upset over WVU on November 29 -- but we pretty much know how this is going to finish. That's ... well, that's pretty boring.