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Updated ACC conference projections after 11 weeks

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With three weeks remaining in the regular season, Florida State has about a 69 percent chance of winning the ACC, Duke has about a 23 percent chance, and Miami's still on the board.

Streeter Lecka

Win projections

Odds of conference records
Atlantic F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 12 win With Week 12 loss
Florida State (6-0, 9-0) 9 7.25 7.18 (+0.08) 7.86 6.86
Clemson (6-1, 7-2) 18 6.34 6.40 (-0.06) 7-1 6-1
Louisville (5-3, 7-3) 15 5-3 4.63 (+0.37)

Boston College (3-3, 6-4) 32 4.03 4.42 (-0.39)

N.C. State (1-5, 5-5) 68 2.10 2.55 (-0.45) 2.37 1.37
Syracuse (1-5, 3-7) 71 1.29 1.40 (-0.11)

Wake Forest (0-5, 2-7) 80 0.42 0.33 (+0.09) 1.15 0.15
Coastal F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 12 win With Week 12 loss
Duke (4-1, 8-1) 23 6.63 6.48 (+0.15) 6.91 5.91
Georgia Tech (5-2, 8-2) 17 5.66 5.42 (+0.24) 6-2 5-3
Miami (3-2, 6-3) 12 5.34 5.33 (+0.01) 5.73 4.73
Pitt (2-3, 4-5) 43 3.61 3.67 (-0.06) 3.91 2.91
Virginia Tech (1-4, 4-5) 28 2.91 2.94 (-0.03) 3.63 2.63
North Carolina (2-3, 4-5) 70 2.98 2.75 (+0.23) 3.69 2.69
Virginia (2-4, 4-6) 40 2.43 2.50 (-0.07)

Atlantic

At this point, the Atlantic division scenarios are pretty easy:

  • If Florida State finishes 1-1 or 2-0, the Seminoles win. Odds: 91.7%.
  • If Florida State finishes 0-2 and Clemson loses to Georgia Tech, the Seminoles win. Odds: 5.4%.
  • If Florida State finishes 0-2 and Clemson finishes 1-0, the Tigers win. Odds: 2.9%.

Clemson and Georgia Tech kick off at noon ET on Saturday, so we'll know by the time FSU and Miami kick off whether Clemson has any chance at all. And since Georgia Tech has a 66% chance of beating CU, the Seminoles may have already sealed the deal before they kick off with the 'Canes. (Of course, they've got plenty more to play for than an ACC title.)

Coastal

The Coastal is still a bit messy ... sort of. Duke still very much has odds in its favor, but technically anybody who can finish 5-3 still has a shot of at least tying for the division. So let's start there:

Chances of finishing at least 5-3: Georgia Tech 100.0%, Duke 99.9%, Miami 89.2%, Pitt 4.6%, UNC 1.1%.

Chances of either winning the division title or tying for the lead: Duke 97.8%, Georgia Tech 23.2%, Miami 16.3%, UNC 0.04%, Pitt 0.01%.

Technically Pitt or UNC might still be able to crash the party, but for the sake of time (because I'm trying to crank out these posts for all five power conferences today), I'll put them to the side for now and focus on the big three: Duke, GT, and Miami.

These three teams have a combined seven games remaining, which means there are still 128 combinations of potential outcomes. That means there's a little too much detail to share here, but if I got all the tie-breakers right, we're looking at 71 of those scenarios favoring Duke, 41 favoring Georgia Tech, and 16 favoring Miami.

Add up the odds of each scenario, and you're looking at Duke 83%, Miami 15%, Georgia Tech 2%. Most Tech scenarios involve Duke going 1-2 against Virginia Tech, UNC, and Wake Forest, and ... well, the odds of that aren't great.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Clemson Georgia Tech 34.4%
12 15-Nov-14 Florida State Miami 39.0%
12 15-Nov-14 Pittsburgh North Carolina 70.4%
12 15-Nov-14 Virginia Tech Duke 28.1%
12 15-Nov-14 Wake Forest NC State 27.3%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 20-Nov-14 North Carolina Duke 5.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Boston College Florida State 13.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Miami Virginia 82.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Syracuse Pittsburgh 17.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Virginia Tech Wake Forest 87.6%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Virginia Virginia Tech 25.0%
14 29-Nov-14 NC State North Carolina 37.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Pittsburgh Miami 8.8%
14 29-Nov-14 Syracuse Boston College 10.8%
14 29-Nov-14 Wake Forest Duke 3.2%

Title Games and Title Odds

So if we have title odds for each division, that means we have odds for all possible title game scenarios.

Duke Miami Georgia Tech
Florida State 81% 15% 1%
Clemson 2% under 1% under 1%

And here are the odds for all possible title games:

Florida State vs. Duke: FSU 72%
Florida State vs. Miami: FSU 58%
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech: 66%

Clemson vs. Duke: Clemson 61%
Clemson vs. Miami: Miami 66%
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech: GT 58%

Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:

1. Florida State 68%

2. Duke 23%

3. Miami 7%

4. Clemson 1%

5. Georgia Tech under 1%

6. Pitt/UNC under 0.1%

Duke's got the worst overall rating of any of the three primary Coastal contenders, but to win the title, you've got to make the title game, and thanks in part to Miami's early losses, Duke has a much better chance of doing that than either the Hurricanes or the Ramblin' Wreck.

And FSU still has the best chance of winning overall. But you probably didn't need numbers to reach that conclusion.